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Poll shows Koreans shift to favoring administration change

Published: 04 Mar. 2025, 15:53 Updated: 04 Mar. 2025, 17:18

KIM MIN-YOUNG
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Presidential candidates Lee Jae-myung of the liberal Democratic Party, right, and Yoon Suk-yeol of the conservative People Power Party attend a ceremony marking the 89th anniversary of the death of independence activist Yun Bong-gil at Hyochang Park in Yongsan District, central Seoul on Dec. 19, 2021. [NEWS1]

Public opinion on a change of government versus a continuation of the current administration was closely contested following the declaration of martial law on Dec. 3, but recent polls show a significant lead for those favoring a change in leadership.

A Realmeter survey conducted from Feb. 26 to 28 and released Monday, shows 55.1 percent of respondents support a change in government in the next presidential election, assuming an early race, while 39 percent preferred the current administration to continue.

The gap of 16.1 percentage points was beyond the margin of error. Compared to the previous week, support for a government change rose by 6.1 percentage points, while support for a continuation of the administration dropped by 6.3 percentage points.

A similar trend was observed in other surveys. In a Gallup Korea poll conducted from Feb. 25 to 27, support for a change in government stood at 51 percent, 13 percentage points ahead of the 38 percent who favored a continuation of the administration.

Following the passage of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment motion on Dec. 14 last year, a Realmeter survey conducted in the fourth week of December showed overwhelming support for a government change at 60.4 percent, compared to 32.3 percent who supported a continuation, nearly a double margin.

However, public opinion in polls shifted rapidly as controversies arose over the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) investigating and seeking to arrest Yoon.

By the second week of January, 52.9 percent favored a change in government while 41.2 percent supported a continuation. Sympathy for Yoon may have grown due to his detention, but the unexpected shift in favor of a ruling bloc still accountable for martial law responsibility was unforeseen.

This trend continued through the first week of February, with both sides maintaining a close contest within the margin of error. However, by the second week of February, a gap began to emerge. A Realmeter survey showed 51.5 percent supporting a continuation of the administration, compared to 44.5 percent favoring a change, marking a 7 percentage point lead outside the margin of error.

[REALMETER]

Coinciding with this period, anti-impeachment rallies were expanding nationwide, peaking on Saturday with over 100,000 protestors gathering in Seoul to oppose Yoon's impeachment.

However, despite the growing fervor in the streets, public opinion continued to diverge, widening the gap between support for a government change and a continuation of the administration to 16 percentage points. This phenomenon of decoupling between the heated protests and the shifting public sentiment has drawn attention.

Experts believe that centrist voters, who had remained on the sidelines, shifted toward supporting a government change as they became increasingly wary of the ruling bloc's hardline stance.

Cho Jin-man, a professor of political science and international relations at Duksung Women’s University, said that centrist voters, who had been observing the impeachment trial proceedings and the anti-impeachment rallies from a distance, began forming negative opinions about the conservative bloc.

He pointed out that the inclusion of election fraud claims and sentiments sympathetic to martial law in the rallies worked against the ruling camp.

Protesters against the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, left, and protesters for the impeachment of Yoon both rally in central Seoul on March 1. [NEWS1]

Yoon Tae-gon, head of political analysis at political think tank Moa, said that the mobilization against impeachment inadvertently triggered counter-mobilization among centrist voters. He added that conservative lawmakers who participated in the rallies called for the eradication of leftists, which likely appeared as a message of political retaliation to moderate voters.

A first-term lawmaker from the conservative People Power Party (PPP) said that the party leadership and potential presidential candidates hesitated to mention an early election due to concerns over anti-impeachment sentiment, preventing momentum from building for a continuation of the administration.

However, some observers caution that if Yoon’s impeachment is upheld and an early presidential election takes place, public opinion could shift once again.

Lee Jun-han, a professor of political science and international relations at Incheon National University, said that the focus could turn to scrutinizing liberal Democratic Party (DP) leader Lee Jae-myung, as he remains a powerful opposition leader.

He noted that if Lee is convicted in the second trial of his election law violation case and receives a sentence that nullifies his candidacy, the political landscape could enter another unpredictable phase.

BY SUNG JI-WON [[email protected]]