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U.S. expert sees geopolitical benefits for Korea in Alaska LNG project

Published: 16 Mar. 2025, 18:25

This photo, provided by the Center for National Analyses, shows Paul Saunders, the president of the Center for the National Interest. [YONHAP]

A U.S. energy security expert has raised the prospects of Korea getting geopolitical benefits from its potential participation in an Alaska liquefied natural gas (LNG) project amid U.S. President Donald Trump's drive for “reciprocity” with security allies and trading partners.

In a recent phone interview with Yonhap News Agency, Paul Saunders, the president of the Center for the National Interest, a U.S.-based think tank, noted that entry into the megaproject will underscore Seoul's commitment to firming up its alliance with the United States, though uncertainty hangs over its economic benefits.

Although Korea, Japan and others have yet to decide whether to join, President Donald Trump told Congress this month that the countries want to partner with the United States on the project “with investments of trillions of dollars each” — a mention highlighting his hope to encourage their contributions.

The project, estimated at $44 billion, aims to build a 1,287-kilometer (800-mile) pipeline from the North Slope, a proven massive reserve of natural gas, to southern Alaska to transport natural gas that will be cooled to liquid for shipments to Asia. Trump's interest in it came amid his push for America's “energy dominance.”

“From a geopolitical perspective, I think the kind of perceived benefit would be … making a strong signal to the president, and to the administration, about Korea's desire to consolidate and strengthen the alliance with the United States,” he said during the interview Wednesday.

“In addition to that, certainly, many would view it as an investment in energy security and an opportunity for Korea, or for others, to diversify away from the Middle East, or, in some cases, from Russia,” he added.

Saunders mentioned the geopolitical benefit as he pointed out Trump's oft-repeated mantra of “reciprocity” in security and trade relations with U.S. allies and other countries.

“We're looking at a historical period in which the Trump administration is looking increasingly toward U.S. alliance relationships, and looking for greater reciprocity, where the president, in particular, is expressing strong doubts about alliances, where he sees relationships that he believes lack sufficient reciprocity,” he said.

In light of Trump's demand for “fair and reciprocal” trade, policymakers in Seoul have been weighing the option to expand LNG imports from the United States to help curtail its trade surplus with the country — an element that the Trump administration is expected to factor in to customize the level of “reciprocal” tariffs on Korea.

Last year, Korea's trade surplus with the United States reached $55.7 billion.

Saunders said various factors will determine the economic viability of the pipeline project, including LNG prices and global demand.

“It's also quite apparent, in the renewed consideration of the project, that the economic criteria may not be the only criteria,” he said.

“It's for certainly the governments and companies involved to try to make a determination: What economic or commercial cost they're prepared to pay for, what perceived geopolitical benefit.”

The Trump administration is hoping to see Korea and Japan not only invest in the costly project, but also become customers for Alaskan gas, Saunders noted.

But it is “clear” that Trump is looking to American companies to do a significant part of the pipeline construction work, he said. He also noted difficulties that foreign steel firms, which look to join the pipeline project, might face, including U.S. tariffs, which would privilege American competitors to some extent.

On the atomic energy cooperation front, Saunders gave a mixed view, noting the need for Seoul to maintain a “good” channel of communication with the Trump administration.

On a positive note, he cited the “ADVANCE Act,” a law that has opened up new opportunities for certain foreign companies in allied countries to invest in the U.S. nuclear sector and own reactor licenses.

“There have been some kinds of substantial changes and improvements in the environment for nuclear in the United States. From a political perspective, there's increasingly bipartisan and broadly based support for nuclear,” he said. “This administration, in particular, certainly has expressed strong support for nuclear. So in a general sense, I think the environment is quite good.”

He also recalled a period of tensions between Korean and U.S. firms during Trump's first term.

“I think the first Trump administration took kind of a dim view of Korean firms competing with the U.S. in markets that the administration saw as important to America,” he said. “So I think there can also be, again, a point of tension.”

Yonhap