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What the delay in Yoon’s impeachment ruling reveal

Published: 21 Mar. 2025, 00:02

Kim Jung-ha

The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.

The Constitutional Court’s ruling on President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment is taking longer than expected. In short, the eight justices are struggling to coordinate their differing opinions. Yoon’s release from detention on March 8 appears to have had a significant impact. Presiding Judge Ji Gui-yeon of the Seoul Central District Court accepted Yoon’s request for release, citing procedural illegitimacy in his detention. If that reasoning becomes a focal point, heated debates among the justices are likely.

For instance, the impeachment bill passed by the National Assembly was centered on insurrection charges. However, the Assembly’s impeachment counsel later announced before the Constitutional Court that they would withdraw the “insurrection” charge under the Criminal Act as grounds for impeachment. This opens the door for arguments that such a procedural flaw is too severe to overlook, making it necessary for the Constitutional Court to dismiss the case and require parliament to pass a new impeachment resolution. Additionally, the legitimacy of the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) handling the insurrection probe — an issue raised by Judge Ji — could become a contentious point in the court’s deliberations.

Two police officers guard the front gate of the Constitutional Court in Jongno District in central Seoul on March 10. [NEWS1]

For those who believe Yoon’s insurrection charges are as indisputable as the sun rising in the east, this delay is infuriating. With the outcome seemingly obvious, critics demand to know why the court is dragging its feet. However, there is no other way — until procedural legitimacy is confirmed, the judiciary cannot act. If, as some argue, “anyone disrupting constitutional order can be immediately arrested as a flagrant offender,” then the rule of law collapses, and barbarism takes over.

Presidential impeachment requires public support

Impeaching a cabinet minister requires only a simple majority in the National Assembly, but impeaching the president demands approval from two-thirds of all lawmakers. Likewise, at the Constitutional Court, at least six of the nine justices — a two-thirds majority — must rule in favor for the impeachment to be upheld. Since a presidential impeachment trial is inherently political — unlike a criminal trial — public opinion plays a significant role. The 67 percent threshold effectively means that overwhelming public support is necessary for removal. Given that the impeachment ruling is final and irreversible, extreme caution is required.

In March 2017, just before the Constitutional Court ruled on then-President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment, a Korea Research poll conducted on March 6 and 7 showed that 75.2 percent of respondents supported impeachment, while 17.4 percent opposed it. With such a decisive public consensus, the justices unanimously ruled 8-0 to remove her. But what about now?

According to a National Barometer Survey released on March 20, 60 percent of respondents supported Yoon’s impeachment, while 35 percent opposed it. Under these conditions, it would not be surprising if at least three of the eight justices opposed impeachment. Acting Chief Justice Moon Hyung-bae likely faces a difficult decision.

Lee Jae-myung, head of the liberal Democratic Party (DP), attends a meeting of the party's supreme council at the National Assembly in western Seoul on March 12. [YONHAP]

Lee Jae-myung’s appeal ruling could precede Yoon’s impeachment verdict

At this rate, the appellate court’s ruling in Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung’s election law case on March 26 is likely to come before the Constitutional Court’s decision on Yoon’s impeachment. If that happens, some speculate that the two cases could become intertwined.

Should the appellate court uphold Lee’s conviction — thus nullifying his election victory — he would be in serious political trouble. In that case, some predict the Constitutional Court may lean toward upholding Yoon’s impeachment to maintain political balance. Conversely, if Lee is exonerated and emerges politically strengthened, but Yoon is also removed from office, the backlash from conservative forces may be too strong for the court to handle. That could lead to an overturning of Yoon’s impeachment.

Of course, such speculation lacks concrete evidence. However, it is difficult to ignore the possibility that the Constitutional Court may consider the election law ruling’s political impact. The fates of Yoon and Lee appear more intertwined than ever.

People opposed to President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment hold a protest across the street from the Constitutional Court in Jongno District, central Seoul, on March 19. [NEWS1]

Both sides must accept the ruling

Both of the main parties demand that the other side accept the impeachment verdict. If either side refuses to acknowledge the outcome, a nationwide political crisis will be inevitable. Unlike the two previous presidential impeachments, this time, the ideological balance between conservatives and liberals is much more evenly split, making post-verdict acceptance even more crucial.

However, a closer look at statements from both sides reveals that neither has seriously considered what to do if the ruling does not go their way. They call on their opponents to accept the verdict, yet they themselves seem unprepared to do so.

Now more than ever, political leaders must demonstrate statesmanship. When the Constitutional Court announces its ruling date, President Yoon and leaders of both parties should publicly pledge to respect the decision — regardless of the outcome.

Translated using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.