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Shoigu's surprise visit to Pyongyang indicates Kim Jong-un may visit Moscow

Published: 25 Mar. 2025, 16:50 Updated: 25 Mar. 2025, 17:05

SEO JI-EUN
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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, shakes hands with Russia's Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu ahead of their talks in Pyongyang on March 21, in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. [YONHAP]

The government is “comprehensively observing” the possibility of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visiting Moscow in May following a visit by Russia's top security aide to Pyongyang, the South's Unification Ministry official said Tuesday.

The remarks came after Russia's Secretary of the Security Council Sergei Shoigu made a surprise trip to the North Korean capital on Friday.

During his trip, Shoigu met with Kim and said, “This year promises to be no less saturated in terms of carrying out large-scale bilateral events and contacts,” including the celebration of Victory Day in May, which marks the Soviet Union's defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II, and Korea's Liberation Day in August, commemorating Korea's liberation from Japanese colonial rule in 1945. “I am sure that we will honor these events,” he added, according to Russian news agency TASS.

South Korea's Unification Ministry described Shoigu's visit as “highly unusual in terms of both schedule and diplomatic context.”

Pyongyang and Moscow officials have discussed arranging “political contacts at the high and top levels,” fueling speculation that a summit between Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin could be in the works.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed Monday that Kim holds a “valid invitation” to visit Russia, adding that the specific schedule will be arranged through diplomatic channels.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, embraces Russia's Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu during their meeting in Pyongyang on March 21, in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. [YONHAP]

However, analysts note that the potential visit faces logistical and diplomatic hurdles.

Among them is the nature of the Victory Day event itself, which is expected to involve multiple heads of state — an environment that may not suit Kim's preferred diplomatic style.

“If Kim attends the Victory Day ceremony, it would be a multilateral diplomatic event, where the protocol cannot revolve around Kim,” a source said under the condition of anonymity. “Unless Russia offers incentives to some extent, it won’t be an easy decision.”

North Korea’s lack of long-range air transport, including a dedicated aircraft capable of making a direct trip to Moscow, also poses a challenge.

For past overseas visits, Kim traveled to Singapore via a borrowed aircraft from China and to Vietnam's Hanoi via train. For both of his previous visits to Russia, he took a train.

Should Kim again choose rail, the trip would recall the 23-night, 24-day journey made by his father, Kim Jong-il, during his visit to Russia in 2001. Such a lengthy journey presents a major burden on the rogue state.

The Unification Ministry also described the nature of Shoigu’s latest visit as “completing only the most essential schedule.”

“The visit lasted only one day, March 21, and included four main events: his arrival in Pyongyang, a wreath-laying ceremony at the Liberation Tower, the meeting with Kim, and his departure,” a senior ministry official said. “This contrasts [in terms of ceremonial treatment] with Shoigu’s previous visit on Sept. 13, 2024, where he met Kim twice and was personally seen off at the airport by Kim himself, who even drove a Mercedes.”

Observers also noted that during the meeting, both sides reaffirmed their commitment to “unconditionally” uphold the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty signed by Kim and Putin in June 2024.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin after signing a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty during the latter's visit to Pyongyang on June 18, 2024. [NEWS1]

Under the treaty, Article 2 calls for the two countries to closely coordinate their foreign policies and diplomacy internationally, while Article 3 establishes that if either country perceives an imminent external threat, they will immediately initiate bilateral consultations.

“This could indicate that North Korea hasn’t been fully briefed on the developments on U.S.-Russia discussions on a potential ceasefire in Ukraine [and sees a need to enhance communication with Moscow],” the source noted.

Article 4 stipulates that if one of the parties comes under armed attack or falls into a state of war due to external aggression, the other party will immediately provide military and other assistance by all means available — effectively a mutual defense clause. Some analysts believe that Pyongyang is pressing Moscow to offer compensation in return for previous military deployments to the frontlines of Russia's war against Ukraine.

Article 5 of the treaty bars each country from entering into any agreements or actions with third parties that would harm the other’s fundamental interests or security. In this context, North Korea could be seeking assurances that Russia will not concede on issues affecting Pyongyang in any future Ukraine peace deal.

“There may have even been discussions about the handling of the captured North Korean POWs [in Ukraine],” the source added.

BY SEO JI-EUN [[email protected]]