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Don't let Trump shape South Korea's foreign policy, experts say

Published: 08 Apr. 2025, 18:26 Updated: 08 Apr. 2025, 18:28

SEO JI-EUN
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Foreign policy experts attend the Korea Institute for National Unification’s 34th anniversary academic conference under the theme “Envisioning Korean Unification in the Trump 2.0 Era,” held Tuesday in Seocho District in southern Seoul. [SEO JI-EUN]

With U.S. President Donald Trump returning for a second term in office, South Korean foreign policy experts cautioned Tuesday that Seoul must not allow its foreign policy to be shaped by Trump’s personal diplomacy.

At the Korea Institute for National Unification’s (KINU) 34th Annual Academic Conference held in Seoul, scholars and analysts emphasized that the alliance with the United States can no longer be taken for granted — nor can it be expected to function as it did during previous administrations. Instead, they say, Seoul should prepare for more profound structural changes in the South Korea-U.S. alliance amid a more fragmented and transactional global environment than during Trump’s first term.

“We are now facing yet another critical turning point that will determine the future of the Korean Peninsula,” Kim Chun-sig, president of KINU, said in his opening remarks at the forum, adding that shifts in U.S. foreign policy under Trump will likely have a "profound impact on inter-Korean relations."

Sung Ki-young, senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy, noted that Trump doesn’t consider the failure of the Hanoi summit in 2019 a breakdown, but rather “one phase in a longer personal negotiation.”

Still, Sung urged caution in viewing such engagement as progress.

“It must be engagement that’s tied to denuclearization — whether complete, phased or based on a long-term road map," Sung said. "In other words, conditional, creative, constructive engagement. But there are doubts whether Trump’s version of engagement fits that picture.”

Shin Jong-ho, associate professor at the College of Global Culture and Commerce at Hanyang University, warned that Trump’s foreign policy reflects a larger shift in how Washington views alliances — one not confined to party lines.

“Trump has made clear through burden-sharing talks that he no longer wants the United States to serve as the stabilizer in NATO or East Asia, especially not in Korea," Shin said.

This, Shin said, requires a fundamental redefinition of the alliance.

“We must reconsider whether the alliance, as it exists, actually guarantees our interests," Shin said. "It's no longer just about adjusting roles — it’s about asking whether the South Korea-U.S. alliance structure works for us.”

He also challenged the tendency to assume that Democratic administrations are more committed to allies may be misguided.

“There’s even been a phrase going around: an elegant Trump," Shin said. "Ultimately, even under a Democratic administration, did the United States really show deep respect for the alliance?”

Park Jae-jeok, associate professor of the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei University, emphasized the growing relevance of Russia in shaping North Korea’s strategic choices regardless of his possible diplomacy with Trump.

“If [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un believes he can receive advanced technologies from Russia, he won’t want to meet Trump," Park said. "Even if they do meet, it won’t be sincere dialogue.

“If Russia doesn’t offer much in return for North Korean military support, Kim’s incentive to meet Trump will rise,” he added.

U.S. President Donald Trump, right, gestures as he meets with North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un at the start of their historic U.S.-North Korea summit, at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore on June 12, 2018. [YONHAP]

Park also raised the possibility of Trump using North Korea as a bargaining chip in broader negotiations with Russia over Ukraine.

“It may not be the main issue, but the North Korea problem could be tacked on in a side deal with Russia and Ukraine. That’s a possibility we can’t rule out.”

Professor Hong Suk-hoon, who teaches international relations at Changwon National University, characterized Trump’s foreign policy as a tactical game and called on Korea to be equally strategic.

“Trump always creates the worst-case scenario first, then slowly raises the leverage through negotiations," Hong said. "That’s how he gets what he wants.”

“We should also expect North Korea to be used to pressure us — on defense cost sharing or U.S. troop repositioning," Hong said. "The United States wants to reallocate forces from Korea to the Taiwan Strait to contain China.”

Kim Min-sung, associate research fellow at KINU, framed Trump’s North Korea policy within the larger context of U.S.-China competition.

“I believe the United States is reorganizing the international order into a favorable environment led by American power," she said. "Curbing China’s rise is a prerequisite, and the Indo-Pacific is where the geopolitical-economic battle is playing out.”

BY SEO JI-EUN [[email protected]]