K-defense has 3–5 years to seize Europe market, expert warns

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K-defense has 3–5 years to seize Europe market, expert warns

Published: 09 Apr. 2025, 00:04

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Cha Se-hyeon

The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.

Korea’s defense exports surged to a record $17.3 billion in 2022 but have since declined — to $13.5 billion in 2023 and $9.5 billion last year. Despite the downturn, the nation remains the world’s ninth-largest arms exporter. Its defense industry, known as “K-Defense,” continues to attract global attention for its competitiveness.

Now, amid growing insecurity in Europe and doubts about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees under the Trump administration, Korea may have a narrow window to expand its market share. The European Union’s recent announcement of a rearmament plan — an 800 billion euro ($874 billion) initiative to strengthen Europe’s defense capabilities by 2030 — presents a rare opportunity for Korean defense firms.

Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak, left, Minister of South Korea's state arms procurement agency Eom Dong-hwan, center, and Polish President Andrzej Duda look at tanks during the acceptance of the first Korean K2 battle tanks and K9 howitzers for Poland at the Baltic Container Terminal in Gdynia on December 6, 2022. [AFP/YONHAP]

Kang Eun-ho, former head of the Defense Acquisition Program Administration and now head of the Defense Industry Research Institute at Jeonbuk National University, spoke with the JoongAng Ilbo about how Korea can capitalize on this moment.

Timing is everything

Asked whether the EU’s push for “Buy European” policies could hinder Korea’s ambitions, Kang acknowledged the risk but emphasized Europe’s immediate needs.

“Some European nations feel far more vulnerable to Russian aggression than others,” he said. “France and Germany will need at least three to five years just to reactivate their defense production lines. Eastern and Northern European countries can’t afford to wait that long.”

He pointed to Norway’s 2023 decision to purchase Germany’s Leopard tanks over Korea’s K2 tanks. “Delivery from Germany will take years. Meanwhile, Korea managed to deliver K2 tanks to Poland in just over a year. There’s already speculation that Norway may reconsider for future purchases.”

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen recently echoed this sense of urgency: “If we can’t get the best, we’ll take the next-best. If delivery takes too long, we’ll choose what arrives sooner,” she said in a press conference.

Kang said the next three to five years represent a critical “window of opportunity” for Korea. “Once European nations restart their own production, the window closes. But if we win contracts now, that means decades of follow-up support, upgrades, and parts supply. We could even enter the world’s top three defense exporters.”

Failure to act quickly, he warned, could lead to stagnation. “Weapon systems must be constantly upgraded, particularly with AI integration now essential. Export revenues are what fund that investment.”

A local production strategy

To strengthen Korea’s chances, Kang advocates offering local production. “When I was in office, we pushed for co-production agreements. It wasn’t just about exporting arms — it was about strategic cooperation,” he said.

While critics warn of potential technology leaks, Kang dismissed the concern. “You only need to safeguard about 20 percent of core technologies. In return, the buyer gains jobs, localized supply chains and technological familiarity.”

Hanwha Aerospace displays the K239 Chunmoo multiple launch rocket system during the International Defence Industry Exhibition in Kielce, Poland, on Sept. 5, 2023, in this file photo provided by the Korean defense firm.[YONHAP]

Local production also brings strategic advantages to Korea, he said. “We reduce the need for heavy domestic investment. And there’s what economists call ‘path dependency.’ Once a country sets up to produce your system, it becomes difficult to switch suppliers.”

In times of crisis, local production hubs abroad could also offer reciprocal support through buy-back agreements, he noted. “But to make this work, the government, military and private sector must act in unison.”

Shifting NATO dynamics

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 64 percent of NATO arms imports in Europe from 2020 to 2024 came from the United States. France and Korea each accounted for 6.5 percent, followed by Germany and Israel.

Now, European voices are calling for a reduction in dependence on U.S. weapons. Kang believes Korean systems can fill the gap. “The United States focuses on premium, high-tech systems. Korea offers solid performance at competitive prices.”

For example, Korea’s Chunmoo multiple launch rocket system performs similar functions to the U.S. HIMARS, a key asset in Ukraine. “But Chunmoo costs less than half,” Kang said.

Even if a second Trump administration tries to push European countries toward U.S. arms, Kang argues that Korea still stands to gain. “This is our moment to grow our share.”

Gaining ground in the U.S. Naval sector

Korea’s strengths in maintenance and repair are also drawing attention from Washington. The U.S. Navy, under strain in the Indo-Pacific, increasingly looks to allies for support.

“The United States lacks shipyard capacity and skilled workers. Most of their fleet is over 20 years old, while China’s navy is almost entirely new,” Kang noted.

Hanwha Ocean recently completed maintenance on the USNS Wally Schirra, marking the first time a Korean firm took on such a task. “The United States was impressed. We anticipate problems before they arise — and we’re more cost-effective than Japan,” he said.

As global defense dynamics shift, Korea may find itself a pivotal player in new alliances. But capitalizing on the momentum, Kang warned, will require agility, strategy, and strong government backing.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.