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Washington is losing its friends

Published: 10 Apr. 2025, 00:01

Cha Se-hyeon

The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.

At what should have been a moment of celebration — the 76th anniversary of NATO’s founding — there was little festivity to be found. No toast, no grand declarations and no air of unity. Instead, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio dropped a proposal that reverberated through the meeting halls of Brussels: NATO members should raise their defense spending to 5 percent of GDP.

A general view during a meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs, at the NATO headquarters, in Brussels, Belgium, 03 April 2025. [EPA/YONHAP]

The announcement wasn’t entirely unexpected. Donald Trump, now back in office, had floated the idea during his first term and again on the campaign trail. Still, many European leaders treated it as a rhetorical flourish, expecting any formal demand to settle closer to 3 or 3.5 percent. Instead, Rubio made 5 percent official policy — more than double the alliance’s current target and a level that even the United States, currently sitting at 3.38 percent, has yet to reach.

The proposal followed another blow just two days earlier: reciprocal tariffs of 20 percent imposed on European Union members, 23 of which are also NATO allies. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas warned that a trade war between the United States and Europe would hand a strategic advantage to adversaries. Yet the Trump administration appeared unmoved. Tellingly, the White House declined to impose similar tariffs on Russia, citing the lack of ongoing trade due to sanctions — an exemption that only deepened the incoherence among allies.

The unease stretched well beyond Europe. Under NATO’s Indo-Pacific outreach, foreign ministers from Korea and Japan were also in the room, facing even steeper tariffs: 25 percent for Seoul, 24 percent for Tokyo. No reason was given for the difference. Australia, another Indo-Pacific partner, found itself slapped with 10 percent tariffs despite running a trade deficit with the U.S. By Trump’s own logic — that tariffs are a punishment for trade imbalances — Australia should have been spared. Instead, it was penalized.

On the sidelines of the meeting, the foreign ministers of Korea, the United States and Japan convened separately to discuss joint responses to Chinese military pressure on Taiwan and to deepen economic cooperation. But the tenor of the talks was subdued. Seoul and Tokyo are reeling from not only the tariff shocks, but also renewed pressure to dramatically increase both their defense budgets and their financial contributions to the cost of hosting U.S. troops.

Three months into Trump’s second term, Washington finds itself simultaneously alienating all three pillars of its global alliance structure: Europe, North America, and the Indo-Pacific region. One by one, allies are discovering that they are now being treated more like adversaries — punished for economic ties with the United States, berated for security dependencies and threatened with further escalation if they don’t concede. As Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba recently put it, U.S. partners are facing a “national crisis” — and they must now choose how to respond.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) poses with Japan's Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya (R) and Republic of Korea Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul (L) on the sidelines of a meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs at NATO's headquarters in Brussels on April 3, 2025. [ AFP/YONHAP]

One option is retaliation. Both Canada and the EU are considering countertariffs. But this path carries risks. Trump has promised to respond in kind, and tit-for-tat escalation could damage domestic industries, global trade flows and longstanding diplomatic relationships. Retaliation may be emotionally satisfying, but it is economically perilous.

A second strategy, and the one most allies appear to be pursuing for now, is appeasement. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that nearly 70 countries had expressed interest in negotiating trade concessions with the United States. These overtures typically involve pledges to buy more U.S. goods, lower regulatory barriers or invest more heavily in the U.S. economy.

For countries like Korea and Japan, heavily reliant on U.S. security guarantees, appeasement may be the only viable short-term option. Earlier this year, Hyundai Motor announced a major expansion of its investment in the United States — an offering clearly designed to pre-empt further White House pressure. Trump, for his part, treats such gestures as trophies, claiming credit before domestic audiences.

A third option is now quietly gaining traction: diversification. Frustrated by the rising costs of doing business with the United States, some allies are looking to broaden their trade partnerships and reduce their economic dependence on Washington. Jason Furman, a former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under Former U.S. President Barack Obama, predicted that “we’ll see more countries signing free trade agreements — just not with the United States.”

Korea is considering accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a major regional trade pact that includes Japan, Canada, Australia, Mexico and Vietnam. The bloc accounted for more than 15 percent of global trade as of 2019. Deeper trade ties with Asean are also on the table.

Even more sensitive are discussions around strengthening trilateral economic cooperation between Korea, China and Japan — an idea that recently sparked outrage in Washington. One Democratic senator warned that Trump’s tariffs were “driving America’s two greatest allies into China’s arms.” The fear is not without merit. When alliances are strained to the breaking point, partners inevitably begin to explore alternatives.

In the near term, many allies will likely continue to seek accommodation. But over time, economic realignment may become inevitable. What was once taken for granted — that the United States would lead a stable coalition of like-minded partners — is now increasingly in question.

U.S. President Donald Trump hosts NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House in Washington, DC, on March 13. [AFP/YONHAP]

Trust, once eroded, is difficult to rebuild. And Washington is discovering that even the strongest alliances do not guarantee endless patience. One by one, its friends are beginning to walk away.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.