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The U.S. shift and Korea’s response

Published: 11 Apr. 2025, 00:03

Cho Yoon-je

The author is a special appointment professor at Yonsei University School of Economics.

The world is in the midst of a profound transformation, and the United States is no exception. A recent analysis by The Economist pointedly named four U.S. presidents — after George Washington — who fundamentally altered the country’s historical trajectory: Abraham Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump.

Each of these leaders left a distinct imprint on U.S. society and the global order. Lincoln preserved the Union through the Civil War and accelerated industrialization through the abolition of slavery. Roosevelt confronted the devastation of the Great Depression with the New Deal, expanded the role of the state and led the United States through World War II, establishing a liberal international order in the postwar era. Reagan reversed the course of expanding government with his embrace of neoliberalism, revitalized a stagnant economy and closed the Cold War chapter by asserting U.S. dominance. Trump’s legacy is still being shaped, but his populist nationalism, trade protectionism and rejection of multilateralism have already marked a clear break from the past.

U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to sign an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on April 9. [AFP/YONHAP]

Whether his impact will be viewed positively or negatively by history remains to be seen. What is beyond doubt, however, is that U.S. politics, society and global posture have changed fundamentally since his rise. The United States before Trump and after Trump are not the same.

That he was elected once might have been seen as an anomaly; that he won office twice signals a deeper transformation in public values and concerns in the United States. Under Trump, the country is no longer broadly seen as a benevolent superpower or global steward. Though still strong, it has become a more insular and unpredictable actor — pursuing its interests without the same regard for traditional allies or established norms.

The roots of this shift lie in structural changes at home. The decline of U.S. manufacturing and the erosion of the middle class have driven deep political polarization. A once-stable middle segment of society now fears downward mobility, while the rapid rise of China has threatened the position of the United States atop the global hierarchy. These dual anxieties — domestic economic insecurity and external geopolitical rivalry — have profoundly reshaped U.S. priorities and behavior.

In the first 80 days of Trump’s initial term, the world watched with alarm. Trade policies were announced and walked back within hours. Tariff threats sent markets reeling. Allies were left scrambling for clarity. This turbulence has not fully abated. But now, several years after the original Trump era — and with his return to office — there is a growing need to take stock of what has changed and what lies ahead.

Despite its enduring economic and military strength, the relative influence of the United States is waning. Over the past two decades, its share of global goods imports has declined from 20 percent to 13 percent. Even if Trump were to reintroduce sweeping tariffs and other countries responded with retaliatory measures, studies suggest global trade volumes would contract by no more than 10 percent. Based on historical trends, that gap could be bridged within four years as trade rebounds.

Moreover, the United States has contributed far less to the growth of global trade than Europe or China over the past 20 years. The future of global commerce is also increasingly being shaped by services, not goods. Trade in services — often immune to tariffs — has grown more than twice as fast as goods trade over the last three decades.

A large balloon with an image of US President Donald Trump is seen above protesters holding signs during the nationwide ″Hands Off!″ protest against Trump and his advisor, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, in downtown Los Angeles on April 5. Protesters flooded the streets of several major US cities on Saturday to oppose the divisive policies of President Donald Trump, in the largest demonstrations since his return to the White House. [AP/YONHAP]

Domestic public opinion in the United States supports a more pragmatic view. According to a recent survey by the Cato Institute, only 1 percent of voters identified free trade as their top concern. By contrast, 40 percent cited inflation as their primary worry. It is unlikely, therefore, that a business-minded president — regardless of political rhetoric — would pursue policies that severely risk economic contraction or runaway inflation.

Seen in this context, Washington's disruptive posture on trade may not have the sweeping or lasting consequences that many feared. The forces driving global integration — digital technology, artificial intelligence and transnational value chains — remain powerful and likely irreversible. The long-term competitiveness of any national economy will continue to depend on innovation and technological capability.

For Korea, the key challenge is to maintain international competitiveness amid this shifting global landscape. That means accelerating domestic innovation, restructuring stagnant industries and investing in talent. Export markets must be diversified, and new industries must be nurtured. But these efforts require more than economic planning — they demand a stable and forward-looking political and social environment.

Arguably, the more consequential and lasting changes are unfolding in the realm of international order. The world is moving toward a new multipolar reality. The U.S.-led system that has framed global diplomacy since World War II is no longer taken for granted. For Korea, this means reassessing its longstanding foreign policy approach.

The Korea-U.S. alliance remains a cornerstone of the country’s security architecture. But it is no longer sufficient to rely on this single pillar. The country must gradually but deliberately diversify its diplomatic relationships, strengthen independent defense capabilities and develop a more autonomous foreign policy posture.

These shifts must be pursued with patience, consistency and a long-term strategic vision. Sudden changes are neither desirable nor realistic. But Korea must recognize that a more self-reliant role in international affairs is no longer optional — it is a necessity.

Military helicopters are parked at the U.S. Forces Korea's Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek on March 3, 2024. [YONHAP]

All of this, however, hinges on the domestic environment. Without national cohesion, political cooperation and social reconciliation, such changes cannot be sustained. Structural reforms — both political and institutional — are urgently needed. Korea must rebuild public trust, encourage bipartisan collaboration and foster a culture of inclusion and forward-thinking leadership.

The upcoming presidential election must serve not just as a contest of personalities but as a forum for addressing these historic challenges. Voters must demand that candidates speak to the realities of a changing world — and propose credible paths forward. The stakes are no less than the country’s ability to navigate an era of global uncertainty.

The question now is whether Korea will rise to meet this moment.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.