Home > Opinion > Columns

Whose side is time on now?

Published: 14 Apr. 2025, 00:02

Han Woo-duk

The author is a senior reporter of the China Lab.

In May 2000, during his campaign for the presidency, George W. Bush made a confident case for deepening economic ties with China. “Trade freely with China and time is on our side,” he said. It was a reflection of the prevailing view in Washington that integrating China into the global economy would eventually nudge it toward free market capitalism and, perhaps over time, toward democratic reform.

That year, the United States supported China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. Optimism was high. American policymakers believed that economic growth would push China toward liberalization and make it a “responsible stakeholder” in the global order.

Two decades later, that optimism has all but vanished.

China has grown dramatically but not in the direction many in the West had hoped. It has not become a free-market economy in the Western sense, nor has it opened up its political system. Instead, China’s economic size has ballooned — reaching nearly 70 percent of the U.S. GDP — while its political model has grown more authoritarian. Rather than being changed by globalization, China has used its integration into the global system to strengthen its domestic model.

Salesperson Cassie poses with product samples depicting US President Donald Trump at a factory specialising in solar powered plastic gadgets in Yiwu, China's eastern Zhejiang province on April 11, 2025. Like countless other companies in the manufacturing powerhouse of Zhejiang province, its products are geared largely towards export -- a sector freshly menaced by Donald Trump's roiling of the global economy and increasingly brutal China tariffs. [AFP/YONHAP]

If time was ever on Washington’s side, as Bush once claimed, it seems now to have favored Beijing.

Today, the roles have shifted. It is China that invokes the language of free trade, while the United States turns inward. President Donald Trump, now in his second term, has continued to impose sweeping tariffs, attempting to reduce American dependence on Chinese goods and reshape global supply chains. But Chinese President Xi Jinping has not retreated in the face of U.S. pressure. Instead, China appears more prepared than ever to withstand economic blows and chart an independent course.

What, then, will the next 25 years look like? The ongoing U.S.-China tariff war may offer some clues. Three shifts in China’s economic and strategic posture suggest how Beijing intends to respond — and what kind of future it is preparing for.

First, a turn inward.

For much of the past two decades, China’s economic model depended heavily on exports. But the limitations of that approach are becoming clear. The trade war has forced China to reckon with its overreliance on foreign demand. It is now placing renewed emphasis on domestic consumption, regional supply chains and national self-sufficiency. This shift toward an “inward-looking economy” is not merely reactive — it is becoming a long-term strategy to shield China from external shocks and assert greater control over its development path.

Second, the rise of “Red Tech.”

U.S. restrictions on Chinese firms — particularly in advanced technologies, such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and clean energy — have not stalled Chinese innovation. In fact, they have accelerated efforts to build a homegrown technology ecosystem. Underpinned by state-led investments, robust scientific education and government-industry coordination, China is setting its own standards in key sectors. The term “Red Tech” is gaining currency to describe this push toward technological self-reliance under an authoritarian framework.

This model is not just about catching up — it’s about creating an alternative. In areas like AI, electric vehicles and solar power, China is no longer content to follow international rules. It is developing its own standards and exporting them, particularly to countries outside the West. The result is what some analysts call “digital authoritarianism,” where advanced technology and centralized political control are fused into a powerful governing model.

Third, an assertive Global South strategy.

China’s economic diplomacy has increasingly turned toward the Global South. Through the Belt and Road Initiative and bilateral investments, it is building infrastructure, supply chains and manufacturing capacity across Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. BYD, a leading Chinese electric vehicle maker, has opened plants in South America. Chinese rail and logistics firms are operating deep into the African interior. Beijing’s approach recalls Mao Zedong’s revolutionary strategy of “encircling the cities from the countryside” —this time, with trade and technology instead of ideology.

All of these efforts point toward a larger national vision: China’s centennial goal of becoming a “modern socialist power” by 2049. While the phrase is vague by design, its implication is clear: China aims not just to rise, but to lead. That includes challenging U.S. dominance in global governance, technology and ideology.

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with China's President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

If the last 25 years showed how China benefited from globalization, the next 25 years will reveal whether it can reshape it.

The U.S.-China trade war, then, is more than an economic dispute. It is part of a broader contest over whose model will define the future. Both countries are racing to build resilient economies, influence global standards and secure strategic alliances. Time, once assumed to favor one side, now sits squarely on the fence.

The question is no longer whether China will change, but whether the rest of the world is prepared for the kind of change China seeks to bring.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.