Seoul braces for all-in-one push by Trump in 'prisoner's dilemma' negotiations

Home > National > Diplomacy

Seoul braces for all-in-one push by Trump in 'prisoner's dilemma' negotiations

Published: 17 Apr. 2025, 17:20 Updated: 17 Apr. 2025, 17:26

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

U.S. President Donald Trump attends a prayer service and dinner ahead of Easter Sunday at the White House in Washington on April 16. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff strategy has taken clearer shape through his recent talks with Japan, with his administration seemingly pushing to conclude negotiations with key allies within the 90-day tariff waiver period.

But rather than encouraging multilateral dialogue, Trump has chosen a divide-and-conquer approach, preventing coordination among allies and pressuring them into one-on-one talks.

Korea is set to begin its round of negotiations with the United States next week. Like Japan and U.S. allies in Europe, the country faces the prospect of not only tariffs but also security-related costs.

But instead of forming a united front, nations are acting alone, each trying to secure the best possible deal — leaving them vulnerable in what experts liken to a classic “prisoner’s dilemma.”

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaks to reporters at the Prime Minister’s official residence in Tokyo on April 17 after a Japanese negotiator held ministerial talks at the White House regarding U.S. tariffs. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Japan caught off guard as first target

The U.S.-Japan negotiations held in Washington on Wednesday provided a glimpse into the high-stakes nature of Trump’s tactics.

Following the talks between Japanese Minister of Economic Revitalization Ryosei Akazawa, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, no official comment was issued by the White House or U.S. agencies.

The few details available came largely from Japan. Akazawa met with Trump privately for 50 minutes prior to the formal talks and held negotiations with Bessent and Greer for 75 minutes, according to Japanese readouts of the talks.

Trump later posted on Truth Social, “A great honor to have just met with the Japanese delegation on trade. Big progress!”

Earlier that morning, Trump posted, “Japan is coming in today to negotiate tariffs, the cost of military support, and ‘trade fairness.’ I will attend the meeting, along with Treasury & Commerce Secretaries."

The message had sent Tokyo scrambling. Japan had not expected the talks to go beyond a preliminary exchange of views and had not included Defense Ministry officials in its delegation. But Trump’s unexpected focus on burden-sharing of military expenses and his direct involvement in the talks prompted Tokyo to hold an emergency meeting later that night.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a prayer service and dinner ahead of Easter Sunday at the White House in Washington on April 16. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Washington reportedly pushes all-in-one deals

Japanese media reported that Trump presented Japan with a package deal bundling tariffs, defense costs and trade conditions all at once.

Following the talks, Akazawa told reporters that both sides agreed to work toward a swift conclusion and that their leaders would jointly announce the results. He said a second round of working-level and ministerial discussions would be held within the month.

“From what we understand, the United States wants to close the deal within the 90-day grace period,” the minister said. “We also hope for a quick conclusion, but it’s hard to say how things will progress.”

When asked if security issues came up during the discussions, he declined to comment.

Later, Kyodo News cited a Japanese government official who said U.S. authorities did bring up increasing Japan’s defense contributions — leaving Tokyo flat-footed without Defense Ministry input.

Trump reportedly gave Akazawa a “Make America Great Again” cap, a gesture interpreted by some as a not-so-subtle reminder that U.S. interests come first.

Newly manufactured cars from Japanese automobile maker Subaru awaiting export are parked at a port in Yokohama, Japan, on March 27. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Allies divided

Korea is paying close attention as Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok and Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun prepare to leave for Washington next week.

But the lack of transparency in Tokyo's talks has fueled anxiety in Seoul.

“In the past, countries in similar positions would coordinate and share their red lines before entering talks,” a government source said. “This time, there’s been no communication at all — not even on when the talks started or ended.”

“Trump keeps telling countries that it’s in their best interest to negotiate early,” the source added.

“This has sparked a race where each country is trying to outmaneuver others, hoping to get even a slightly better deal. It’s like a prisoner’s dilemma where everyone ends up worse off.”

Another official described the situation as a textbook “divide-and-conquer strategy.”

“If Korea tried to coordinate with Japan, the European Union or Canada and got singled out by Trump for doing so, we’d be in trouble,” the official said. “Right now, no one trusts anyone else.”

In this photo released by Malaysia's Department of Information, China's President Xi Jinping waves upon his departure to Cambodia at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Sepang, Malaysia, on April 17. [AP/YONHAP]

Trump’s involvement may signal U.S. weakness

Some analysts believe Trump’s personal involvement reflects mounting pressure at home as his policies face strong resistance from China.

The Associated Press noted that his participation in the first Japan talks could be a sign of urgency.

“Trump inserted himself directly into trade talks with Japanese officials, a sign of the high stakes for the United States after its tariffs rattled the economy and caused the administration to assure the public that it would quickly reach deals,” AP reported.

Since launching his tariff campaign, Trump has seen historic stock market volatility and rising fears of stagflation — a combination of inflation and an economic slowdown with high unemployment. China, which had been expected to capitulate, remains defiant.

A spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated on Wednesday, “China does not want to fight those wars, but neither are we afraid of them.”

Amid the growing economic uncertainty, Trump’s approval ratings have dropped.

According to a survey by The Economist, support for the U.S. president has fallen to 42 percent, down 14 percentage points from his inauguration. That decline is steeper than during his first term. Even his predecessors, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, who also faced criticism early in their terms, did not see net-negative ratings within their first 100 days.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.

BY KANG TAE-HWA [[email protected]]