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Lee Jae-myung takes early lead as Han Duck-soo weighs presidential bid

Published: 21 Apr. 2025, 00:02

Chang Se-jeong

The author is an editorial writer for the JoongAng Ilbo.

The Democratic Party’s primary season for Korea’s snap presidential election is underway, and Lee Jae-myung has taken a commanding early lead. In the first regional primary held in the Chungcheong region on April 19, Lee secured 88.15 percent of the vote, confirming his status as the party’s front-runner.

Acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo salutes during a Cabinet meeting at the Government Complex in central Seoul on April 14. [YONHAP]

A recent Gallup Korea poll conducted from April 15 to 17 showed Lee leading the field in public support with 38 percent. Acting President Han Duck-soo and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo each received 7 percent. Barring unexpected political upheaval, the race appears to be leaning decisively in Lee’s favor.

The opposition People Power Party (PPP) has also launched its candidate selection process, aiming to nominate a final candidate by May 3. But the early election, triggered by the impeachment and removal of President Yoon Suk Yeol, has limited public engagement with the PPP primary. As a result, attention is increasingly shifting to Han Duck-soo, who has not joined the race but is emerging as a potential consensus candidate.

In political circles, particularly in Yeouido, speculation is building that Han may enter the race at the last minute. With more than 50 years of public service experience, including roles as trade minister, prime minister, and ambassador to the United States, Han could present himself as an “economic and trade president.” Some insiders suggest a scenario in which Han unites centrist conservatives and moderate reformists from outside the PPP, potentially teaming up with figures like Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party in a last-minute coalition.

Acting President Han Duck-soo, second from right, visits HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co.'s shipyard in Ulsan, about 410 kilometers southeast of Seoul, on April 16. [YONHAP]

Korea has seen three presidential impeachments — Roh Moo-hyun, Park Geun-hye, and Yoon Suk Yeol — and each time, the prime minister assumed the role of acting president. Yet this is the first time that an acting president is being seriously considered as a top contender. In an interview with the Financial Times published on April 20, Han declined to state his intentions, saying he had “not yet decided.” However, with the legal deadline for public officials to resign in order to run — May 4 — fast approaching, a decision is imminent.

Some analysts believe that Han’s choice may be influenced more by international politics than domestic calculations. In his first phone call with Han on April 8, U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly inquired about his political intentions, indicating keen interest from Washington.

The Trump administration, which has reignited a global tariff campaign, has identified Korea, Japan, Australia, India and Britain as priority trade negotiation partners. Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok is set to travel to Washington on April 22 for bilateral talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Han, known for his trade negotiation expertise, is believed to have provided guidance for the upcoming discussions.

Observers say the outcome of the talks could shape Han’s political viability. If the Trump administration prioritizes short-term gains and pressures Korea into one-sided concessions, Han could be blamed for a weak showing, undermining his credentials as a capable leader. That would likely derail growing calls within the PPP for Han to step in as a “national unity candidate.”

On the other hand, if Trump — eager to counter China’s geopolitical influence — opts to bolster Han diplomatically, it could shift the narrative. Critics of the Moon Jae-in administration have pointed to its conciliatory posture toward China, especially in the wake of the U.S.-led antimissile Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) system controversy. Moon’s government faced accusations of appeasement after adopting a “Three No’s” policy regarding Thaad, prompting criticism from Washington and domestic conservatives alike.

In this context, foreign policy and trade credentials may matter more than ever. Kim Hyun-chong, a former deputy national security adviser and close adviser to Lee Jae-myung, has been in Washington meeting U.S. officials and think tank experts to reinforce support for the Korea-U.S. alliance. Some analysts view his activities as an effort to neutralize suspicions in Washington that Lee may lean too closely toward China.

If Han succeeds in demonstrating strategic fluency with Trump’s administration and extracts a favorable trade outcome, he could significantly boost his appeal. Even if initial talks fall short of expectations, Han could frame himself as the only candidate capable of negotiating directly with Trump once elected. “Let me finish what I started — face to face,” is a message that may resonate with voters seeking stability and experience.

Acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo(Left) and U.S. President Donald Trump. [NEWS1]

Yet not all are convinced of Han’s intentions. On April 17, Democratic Party Supreme Council member Kim Min-seok staged a solo protest, warning against a “hasty tariff negotiation for electoral gain.” His comments reflect concerns that foreign policy may be leveraged for political purposes in the lead-up to the June 3 election.

With less than two weeks before the resignation deadline, Han’s decision may depend on whether he emerges from the upcoming trade negotiations stronger — or sidelined. As the political field narrows, Korea’s next president may well be shaped as much in Washington as in Seoul.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.