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South Korea-U.S. alliance prospects marked by hope, concern in Trump's 1st 100 days

Published: 27 Apr. 2025, 14:02

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington on April 2. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

The prospects for the South Korea-U.S. alliance have been marked by hope and concern over the last nearly 100 days since President Donald Trump took office, as Seoul has seen tariff threats, an alignment on the North Korea denuclearization goal and cooperation opportunities in shipbuilding and other fields.

After Trump's return to office in January, uncertainty shrouded the alliance amid Trump's tariff pressure, his claim of Seoul's insufficient reimbursement for America's military support and the Asian ally's unlikely placement on the U.S. Department of Energy's "Sensitive and Other Designated Countries List (SCL)."

A fair dose of optimism has also emerged, driven by Seoul's diplomatic push to navigate new and future U.S. levies and explore possibilities for collaboration over Trump's policy priorities, though the aftermath of ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol's short-lived martial law declaration has injected unforeseen uncertainties into the alliance

In the first several months of Trump's second term, South Korea appeared to have been low on his foreign policy list with his administration heavily consumed with the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict, the fentanyl crisis, border security and trade policy formulation, to name a few.

But the Asian country sprung back into the spotlight on Thursday when it and the United States held high-level "two plus two" consultations in pursuit of a deal over new U.S. import taxes and other economic issues that are consequential for South Korea's export-reliant economy.

Seoul's Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok and Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun joined Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer for the talks, after the United States started imposing "reciprocal tariffs," including 25 percent duties on South Korea, on April 9, only to put a 90-day pause on them shortly afterward.

During the talks, the two sides agreed on joint efforts to pursue a comprehensive package agreement by July 8, when the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariff ends.

Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok, second from left, Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun, left, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, second from right, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer pose for a photo prior to their trade talks in Washington on April 24. [NEWS1]

Last week's trade talks came after Trump laid bare his apparently negative perception toward South Korea as a trading partner.

During a congressional speech last month, Trump claimed that South Korea's average tariff is four times higher than that of the United States, arguing that the tariff rate is in place although the United States has helped the Asian ally for security and in "so many other ways."

South Korea's tariff on its most-favored nations (MFNs) stands at around 13.4 percent — compared to the United States' 3.3 percent on its MFNs — but that rate is not applicable to countries with free trade agreements with Korea, including the United States.

Tariffs aside, the Trump administration has taken issue with a bevy of South Korea's non-tariff barriers in a recent USTR report, including the country's import ban on American beef from cattle aged 30 months or older, its "offset" defense trade policy and emission-related regulations on imported cars.

Trump's emphasis on allies' burden-sharing has also been a source of tension.

During his first phone call with South Korea's acting President Han Duck-soo earlier this month, Trump said he and Han discussed Washington's "big time" military protection of the Asian ally — a remark that reinforced speculation he might demand a rise in Seoul's share of the cost for stationing the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK).

"We pay for the military over in Europe. We don't get reimbursed by much … South Korea too," Trump told reporters at the White House this month, responding to a question about whether he plans to reduce the number of American troops in Europe.

Apache attack helicopters are seen at Camp Humphreys, a U.S. military base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, on April 10. [YONHAP]

On the North Korea front, South Korean policymakers heaved a sigh of relief in late January when the White House said that Trump would pursue the "complete denuclearization" of North Korea.

Trump's commitment to the denuclearization goal came days after he called North Korea a "nuclear power" — an expression that fueled concerns that he could accept the recalcitrant regime as a nuclear-armed country and focus on mitigating security risks rather than on ridding it of nuclear arms.

His return to the Oval Office has raised cautious hope for the revival of his summit diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The president's "top-down" leader-to-leader approach during his first term led to three in-person meetings between the leaders, including their first summit in Singapore in 2018.

U.S. President Donald Trump, right, meets with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Sentosa Island, Singapore, on June 12, 2018. [AP/YONHAP]

In a media interview after his inauguration, Trump said he will reach out to Kim again, calling him a "smart guy."

"Since inauguration, [Trump] has continued to give signals [for reengagement with Kim], and he's assembled a team around him that should be able help him follow through on his ambitions with Pyongyang, although there are others in his administration who perhaps are less supportive," Rob Rapson, former acting U.S. ambassador to South Korea, told Yonhap News Agency via email.

"It's just a matter of timing, in my view, so perhaps later this year as conditions warrant," he added.

As to the agenda for the future Trump-Kim talks, Rapson anticipated that it may not be tethered so tightly to denuclearization given that Trump appears more interested in a "bigger" deal with the North Korean leader.

Among the most contentious alliance issues was South Korea's inclusion in the U.S. Energy Department's SCL, a list that includes North Korea, Russia, China and Iran — a grouping that South Korea, a longtime staunch ally of the U.S., was hardly expected to join.

The department confirmed to Yonhap News Agency last month that the preceding Biden administration added South Korea to the lowest category of the SCL in early January. The designated countries are subject to stricter scrutiny when access is requested to the department's research institutions or other facilities for technology cooperation or other purposes.

The designation drew keen public attention in Seoul as many Koreans viewed it as a matter of trust in the longstanding alliance with the U.S.

Amid controversy over the SCL, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce has said that the United States looks forward to "continued" and "robust" scientific research cooperation with South Korea, and it "greatly values" its relationship with South Korea.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce speaks during a press briefing at the State Department in Washington on April 15. [AFP/YONHAP]

Another potential fault line in the alliance has stemmed from the possibility that the Trump administration could pursue greater "strategic flexibility" in its use of USFK assets to deal with threats from China and other security priorities.

Seoul has balked at USFK moves that might weaken its focus on deterring a provocative North Korea, but Washington has sought to leverage USFK assets for a broader security role rather than keeping it as a static fixture on the Korean Peninsula.

The U.S. military has recently deployed Patriot missile defense batteries from the South to the Middle East on a temporary basis — a dispatch that has brought the strategic flexibility issue to the fore in both Seoul and Washington.

Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby has advocated for strategic flexibility. During last year's interview with Yonhap News, he noted the need for a USFK overhaul to make it "more relevant" to handling China-related contingencies rather than being held "hostage" to countering North Korean challenges.

"Pressure from China hawks on Trump's team for Korea to take much stronger measures against Beijing will be a key and potentially divisive issue as will possible efforts by some to have Korea take on more direct responsibility for its defense against North Korea — all of which contributes to growing concern among many Koreans about the strength of the U.S. treaty commitment to Korea's defense," Rapson said.

Brightening the prospects for the alliance is the shared desire for future cooperation in various areas, including the shipbuilding industry.

With China known to have over 230 times the shipbuilding capacity of the U.S., Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to cooperate with allies to build naval vessels.

"We don't really essentially build ships anymore, which is ridiculous. It's going to be a very big business for us in the not-too-distant future," Trump said during a Cabinet meeting earlier this month.

"But in the meantime, we have countries that do very well at building ships, and we'll be dealing with those countries, and we may be ordering top-of-the-line ships from those countries."

Trump has also signaled his desire to elicit South Korea's cooperation in an Alaska liquefied natural gas (LNG) project. He told a joint congressional session last month that Korea, Japan and others want to partner with the United States in the project "with investments of trillions of dollars each."

The project, estimated at $44 billion, aims to build a 1,287-kilometer (799 miles) pipeline from the North Slope, a proven massive reserve of natural gas, to southern Alaska to transport natural gas that will be cooled to liquid for shipments to Asia. Trump's interest in it came amid his push for America's "energy dominance."

"From a geopolitical perspective, I think the kind of perceived benefit would be … making a strong signal to the president [Trump] and to the administration about Korea's desire to consolidate and strengthen the alliance with the United States," Paul Saunders, the president of the Center for the National Interest, a U.S.-based think tank, told Yonhap News Agency in a recent interview.

"I think in addition to that, certainly many would view it as an investment in energy security and an opportunity for Korea or for others to diversify away from the Middle East, or in some cases from Russia."

The future trajectory of the alliance will likely be affected by the outcome of South Korea's June 3 presidential election set up by the ouster of Yoon who was impeached over his martial law imposition in December.

Lee Jae-myung, former leader of the liberal Democratic Party, is seen as the front-runner in the presidential race, as various polls put him far ahead of other contenders. Should Lee be elected president, he could have a strong mandate backed by his party's parliamentary clout.

"As such, while a policy of strong support for the U.S. alliance and partnership across the spectrum of issues will undoubtedly maintain, it will be tempered by a greater pragmatism and capacity to push back on Trump administration policies that run at sharp odds with Korea's core national interests … more so than a prospective conservative administration," Rapson said.

Yonhap