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North Korea's Ukraine war admission may have potential Trump talks in mind, experts say

Published: 28 Apr. 2025, 19:06

A wounded soldier, suspected to be North Korean and captured by Ukrainian forces in Russia's western Kursk region, is pictured in this file photo posted to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's X account on Jan. 11. [SCREEN CAPTURE]

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may have officially admitted that the country dispatched troops to assist Russia as a "blood ally" to use Russia as a card in potential negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump, according to experts.

Analysts suggest that Kim, aiming for a new “big deal” with the United States, may seek to sever ties with South Korea and instead secure Russia as a strategic backer to enhance his negotiating leverage.

"The operations for liberating the Kursk area to repel the adventurous invasion of the Russian Federation by the Ukrainian authorities were victoriously concluded," the KCNA reported on Monday.

North Korea "regards it as an honor to have an alliance with such a powerful state as the Russian Federation," according to the KCNA, thus officially confirming the troop deployment for the first time.

This development appears to be a response to Trump's ongoing pressure to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Despite Trump’s repeated overtures, Kim has remained largely unresponsive until now.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, and U.S. President Donald Trump shake hands at the border village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone on June 30, 2019. [AP/YONHAP]

Considering Kim’s experience during the 2019 Hanoi summit — where he faced Trump without any strong allies and left empty-handed — securing Russia as a formal ally appears to be a calculated move to avoid repeating that diplomatic failure.

"Trump appears eager to involve Russia in ending the war," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University. "If a peace agreement were to be rapidly reached, there was a risk that North Korea could be marginalized and left without significant concessions. Formalizing and justifying the troop deployment was likely necessary for North Korea to ensure that it secures tangible returns during the settlement process."

Goodbye, South Korea?

Kim’s acceleration of moves to sever ties with South Korea before officially acknowledging the troop dispatch also appears to be connected to this broader strategy.

On Friday, Kim used the term "intermediate maritime boundary" for the first time, rejecting the existing Northern Limit Line (NLL) and asserting a new maritime border based solely on North Korea’s claims.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un pose for a photo during a signing ceremony of a new partnership in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 19, 2024. [AP/YONHAP]

By framing the two Koreas as hostile states, Kim is laying the groundwork to remove South Korea from future negotiations entirely.

During the 2018 to 2019 period of successive North Korea-U.S. and inter-Korean summits, South Korea and the United States were aligned against North Korea.

However, Kim now appears to envision a second round of negotiations in which North Korea and Russia form a united front against the United States. The official acknowledgment of the troop deployment also served to justify the North Korea-Russia treaty and left open the possibility of Russian involvement on the Korean Peninsula.

Such developments could complicate Trump’s negotiating strategy, which would benefit from exerting individual pressure on North Korea and Russia separately.

"By publicly calling each other allies, North Korea and Russia are signaling to the United States that they have solid backing," said Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification. "Now that both countries have admitted to the troop deployment, Trump’s attempts to drive a wedge between Pyongyang and Moscow will become even more difficult."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, and U.S. President Donald Trump shake hands at the border village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone on June 30, 2019. [AP/YONHAP]

Maybe not so fast

However, whether Kim’s strategy will proceed as he intends remains uncertain.

So far, aside from increased exchanges of personnel and supplies, there has been no clear evidence that Russia has transferred critical nuclear technologies to North Korea, such as submarine launch capabilities, intercontinental ballistic missile re-entry technologies or miniaturized nuclear warheads.

"Given Russia’s status as one of the five recognized nuclear-weapon states under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, it remains unclear whether Moscow would risk crossing a red line by providing such assistance," said a South Korean government source.

Although Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be drawing North Korea closer for now, it is also possible that North Korea could be reduced to a mere bargaining chip depending on the course of negotiations with Trump. Kim could find himself sidelined at the negotiating table between major powers, without receiving proper compensation for the sacrifices made by North Korean troops.

President Donald Trump, right, meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G-20 Summit in Hamburg, July 7, 2017. [AP/YONHAP]

As the situation continues to evolve, there are warnings that South Korea must remain vigilant.

"North Korea and Russia had consistently denied or evaded acknowledgment of North Korean troop deployments despite repeated accusations and evidence presented by the international community," said a Foreign Ministry official on Monday.

"Now that they have publicly admitted the deployment, we criticized them for falsely claiming that the deployment was fully consistent with international law and strongly condemn the move as a continued affront to the international community."

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
BY PARK HYUN-JU [[email protected]]