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DP's Lee maintains massive lead in recent poll on presidential election

Published: 06 May. 2025, 07:00

Presidential candidates, clockwise from top left: Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party, independent Han Duck-soo and Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party [NEWS1]

With all major party candidates confirmed for the June 3 presidential election, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party (DP) continues to dominate, securing around 50 percent support in various hypothetical matchups, according to a recent Gallup Korea poll.

Commissioned by the JoongAng Ilbo and conducted from Saturday to Sunday, the survey involved telephone interviews with 1,006 adults aged 18 and older nationwide.

The poll was conducted in the immediate aftermath of two major developments for both the conservative and liberal parties: the Supreme Court's decision on May 1 to overturn an appellate acquittal in Lee Jae-myung’s election law violation case and return it to the Seoul High Court for retrial, and Kim Moon-soo’s victory in the People Power Party (PPP) primary on May 3. Despite renewed scrutiny over his legal troubles, Lee’s support remained stable.

The results show that in a four-way race including Kim, Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party and independent candidate Han Duck-soo, Lee Jae-myung led with 47 percent support, followed by Han at 23 percent, Kim at 13 percent and Lee Jun-seok at 4 percent.

Even when simulating a conservative "big tent" alliance between Kim and Han, Lee Jae-myung's lead persisted. In a three-way race with Lee Jun-seok also in the mix, Lee Jae-myung earned 49 percent to Kim’s 33 percent and Lee Jun-seok's 9 percent. Against Han, Lee Jae-myung led 49 percent to 36 percent, with Lee Jun-seok at 6 percent. These margins — 16 percentage points over Kim and 13 over Han — are well outside the margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Democratic Party's presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung, left, and People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo attend a celebratory Buddhist ceremony in front of the Daeungjeon Hall at Jogye Temple in Jongno District, central Seoul, on May 5, Buddha’s Birthday in the year 2569 of the Buddhist calendar. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]

When the race was reduced to a head-to-head between Lee Jae-myung and a consolidated conservative candidate without Lee Jun-seok competing in the race, the gap narrowed but still favored the DP candidate, who led Han 51 percent to 41 percent and Kim 52 percent to 39 percent.

The margin between Lee Jae-myung and Kim has narrowed since previous polls in January when the PPP candidate trailed by 19 percentage points, and in April, when Kim was short by 18 percentage points, suggesting a potential "convention bounce" where candidates see a surge in support straight after a nomination.

In contrast, a two-way race between Lee Jae-myung and Lee Jun-seok yielded a wider gap: 51 percent to 29 percent, a 22-point difference.

"Han’s higher polling figures in three-way and two-way matchups likely reflect stronger support from voters in their 20s and 30s," noted Gallup Korea. "Kim’s relatively lower public recognition may be a factor, compared to Han Duck-soo, who served as the prime minister."

Independent preliminary candidate Han Duck-soo enters a restaurant in Jongno, central Seoul, on May 5. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]

Notably, Lee Jae-myung’s support appears unaffected by the resurgence of his legal risks. His overall favorability has grown steadily — 36 percent in January, 42 percent in April, and 47 percent in May — suggesting that his voter base is consolidating as the election nears.

Lee Jae-myung’s momentum is particularly strong among moderate voters. His favorability among this group rose from 36 percent in January to 43 percent in April and now stands at 55 percent. The data indicates that even after the Supreme Court’s ruling, his support among moderates not only held firm but strengthened.

The DP candidate's dominance among moderate voters became more pronounced as the hypothetical candidate field narrowed.

In matchups against Han, Lee Jae-myung’s support among moderates grew from 55 percent in the four-candidate race to 57 percent in a three-way race and to 61 percent in a one-on-one face-off. A similar trend was observed against Kim, with support for Lee Jae-myung increasing from 55 to 57 to 62 percent across the same scenarios.

Reform Party presidential candidate Lee Jun-seok gives a speech at the Donghwa Temple in Daegu on May 5. [NEWS1]

“The fact that Lee’s approval ratings remain unchanged despite the court ruling is highly significant," noted Gallup Korea. "It underscores the strength of anti-PPP sentiment, especially in light of recent political events such as the Dec. 3 martial law decree in 2024 and former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment.”

"Most voters have already made up their minds, and the number of undecided moderate voters is very small," said Lee Jun-ho, CEO of polling agency STI. "This is why Lee’s legal issues have had little impact on his support.”

In fact, support for individual candidates remains quite similar to support for political parties recorded last month.

When asked which party’s candidate they hoped would win the election, 45 percent of respondents chose the DP, while 31 percent supported the PPP — a 14-percentage-point gap unchanged from the April survey. Support for third-party candidates declined slightly from 8 percent to 7 percent.

Voter turnout intention was high: 85 percent said they would "definitely vote," and 10 percent said they would "probably vote," for a total of 95 percent expressing intent to cast a ballot. However, as survey participants tend to be more politically engaged, actual turnout is likely to be relatively lower.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
BY HEO JIN [[email protected]]