Poll position: All about Korea's upcoming presidential election

Home > National > Politics

Poll position: All about Korea's upcoming presidential election

Published: 11 May. 2025, 07:00 Updated: 11 May. 2025, 11:55

MICHAEL LEE
[email protected]

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Kindergartners practice placing votes into a ballot box at an educational center run by the National Election Commission in Michuhol District, Incheon, on May 8. [YONHAP]

[EXPLAINER]

For the second time in less than a decade, South Koreans will cast their ballots far earlier than usual to elect the successor of an ousted president.

While polls have recorded little in the way of major shifts in public opinion since former President Yoon Suk Yeol was removed from office in early April, at least three weeks remain between the end of candidate registration on Sunday and Election Day on June 3, leaving plenty of time for upheaval.

In contrast to the liberal Democratic Party (DP), which has ruled out switching out its candidate Lee Jae-myung despite his legal woes, the conservative People Power Party (PPP) took over a week to finalize former Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo’s nomination due to wrangling over whether he should step aside for former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo.

The election of the 14th president comes at a time when South Korea is in desperate need of effective leadership amid deepening political polarization, rising pessimism regarding the country’s future, rising economic uncertainty and growing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.

Why is there an early election?

This year’s election comes two years early due to Yoon’s dismissal from office over his short-lived imposition of martial law on Dec. 3 last year.

Yoon was impeached by the DP-controlled National Assembly on Dec. 14. However, he remained only suspended from office while his trial was underway at the Constitutional Court.

The court eventually ruled to uphold his impeachment in a unanimous decision on April 4, triggering an election to select his replacement on June 3.

By law, an election to choose the successor of a president who leaves office before the end of their term must take place within 60 days of their ouster.

The upcoming election is the second to be held before the end of a president’s five-year term since South Korea became a democracy in 1987.

The last early presidential election took place in May 2017, two months after the Constitutional Court dismissed former President Park Geun-hye from office for corruption and abuse of power.

Who are the candidates?

While most of the parties that hold seats in the National Assembly, as well as others, are registering candidates by Sunday's deadline, only a few have a realistic shot at the presidency.

According to polls, the current leading contender is former DP leader Lee, who was also the party’s nominee in the 2022 election but lost to Yoon.

A National Barometer Survey released on Thursday found that Lee enjoys a wide lead in approval ratings among candidates, receiving 43 percent support from respondents.

Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung speaks during a campaign stop inside a market in Yeongcheon, North Gyeongsang, on May 9. [YONHAP]

His primary conservative challenger is former Labor Minister Kim, who won the PPP primaries on May 3 and scored 12 percent support in the same poll.

Over the past week, Kim resisted alleged pressure from his party’s leadership to step aside for former Prime Minister Han, who recorded 23 percent support in the latest survey.

Both Kim and Han agreed that a single conservative candidate has better odds of blocking Lee’s path to the presidency, but they disagreed about who should be on the PPP’s ticket.

Kim filed an injuction on Thursday to prevent the PPP from selecting someone else as its nominee, but a court dismissed the petition on Friday.

The debate was finally laid to rest on Sunday, when Kim registered himself as the PPP candidate with the National Election Commission (NEC) after party members voted to keep him as their nominee.

Former Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo speaks during a debate hosted by the Gwanhun Club, a senior journalists' association, at the Press Center in Jung District, central Seoul, on May 8. [NEWS1]

What are the issues?

Much of the upcoming election has been overshadowed by Yoon’s shocking declaration of martial law and the involvement of several members of his administration to carry out his decree, which was found to be illegal by the Constitutional Court in its decision to remove him from office.

Lee has argued that his election, and returning control of the presidency to the DP, is the only way to bring a complete “end to the insurrection,” as he and his party have characterized Yoon’s martial law bid.

He has also promised to expand government funding for research and development, defense systems, regional infrastructure and disability support, reversing some of his party’s positions on cutting spending in the same sectors.

While Lee has backtracked on his opposition to some key components of Yoon’s foreign and security policies, such as strengthening trilateral defense cooperation with the United States and Japan, he has also voiced a desire to lower tensions on the peninsula by restoring the inter-Korean military pact, which Seoul suspended over Pyongyang’s weapons tests and reconnaissance satellite launches.

By contrast, he has made little mention of expanding the trademark welfare policies he implemented as mayor of Seongnam and governor of Gyeonggi, such as universal basic income.

Lee has attributed his reticence to concerns that talk of socioeconomic policies could stall the upward momentum of his candidacy, which has only gathered support in the weeks since Yoon’s removal.

However, his conservative critics have emphasized Lee’s record of pushing social welfare programs, as well as the criminal indictments that have been filed against him by prosecutors, as evidence that he is unfit for the presidency.

Former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo speaks during a press event hosted by the Seoul Foreign Correspondents' Club at the Press Center in Jung District, central Seoul, on May 7. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]

Han, for instance, has accused Lee and his party of trying to “viciously and madly destroy the judiciary and seize control of the legal system” after the Supreme Court overturned his acquittal on charges of violating election law.

According to PPP Rep. Park Soo-young, Han was also “motivated to throw his hat into the ring because a populist like Lee could easily turn South Korea into a second Venezuela.”

The recent domestic turmoil in South Korea has coincided with global economic uncertainty unleashed by Trump’s push to impose tariffs on allies and adversaries alike.

Kim has pledged to push business-friendly policies to boost the economy if he is elected president.

In his acceptance speech on May 3, he promised to take a hard line against North Korea and create policies to support young workers, recalling his experience as a labor activist who was expelled from university for participating in the pro-democracy movement.

Kim has also declined to distance himself from Yoon and criticized the former president’s impeachment process.

Who can vote?

Only South Korean citizens who were born on June 4, 2007 or earlier — that is, those who are of 18 years of age or older on Election Day — have the right to vote in this presidential election.

By this standard, approximately 44 million South Koreans are eligible to cast ballots.

Korean nationals who reside overseas can also vote in the upcoming election, provided they have registered in advance with their local embassy or consulate before the April 24 deadline.

The NEC announced earlier this week that 258,254 Korean citizens who registered to vote at one of 182 South Korean embassies or consulates are eligible to cast ballots, representing an increase of 14.2 percent from the 2022 presidential election.

Just under 52,000 voters are registered with a South Korean diplomatic mission in the United States, followed by 38,600 in Japan and 25,154 in China.

As the winner of the presidential election in Korea is decided by tallying ballots cast nationwide and overseas, all votes carry equal weight, regardless of where a voter resides.

Early voting in South Korea is scheduled to take place from May 29 to 30 at designated polling centers run by the NEC, while ballot booths on Election Day are open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.

Voting at South Korean diplomatic missions abroad is due to take place from May 20 to 25 from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. local time.

Update, May 11: Details of Kim Moon-soo's candidate registration added.

BY MICHAEL LEE [[email protected]]