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Next Korean president to face baptism of fire

Published: 12 May. 2025, 18:17

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks while signing an executive order on legislation relating to household consumer energy policies, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on May 9. [AFP/YONHAP]

With the three-way race between Lee Jae-myung, Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok now confirmed for the June 3 presidential election, attention is turning to the diplomatic challenges awaiting the next president, who will debut on the global stage immediately after taking office without a transition team.

A series of major multilateral summits are scheduled right after the inauguration, making strategic positioning amid the U.S.-China rivalry, trade issues such as tariffs and responses to North Korea’s nuclear threat the new president’s first diplomatic tests.

The first major multilateral stage for South Korea’s new leader is expected to be the Group of 7 (G7) summit in Canada from June 15 to 17. Although South Korea is not a G7 member, it has previously participated as an invited guest — former President Moon Jae-in in 2021 at the invitation of Britain, and former President Yoon Suk Yeol in 2023 at Japan’s request.

The host country selects the guest nations based on the agenda, and Canada — this year’s chair — has been a close partner of South Korea among G7 nations. Once Canada’s new cabinet is finalized, the list of invitees will be announced. If South Korea is included, the summit could mark the new president’s first encounter with U.S. President Donald Trump.

The NATO summit, set for June 24 to 26 in the Netherlands, follows shortly after. South Korea has attended for three consecutive years as one of NATO’s four Asia-Pacific partners: South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. If the new president attends this year’s summit, they will face pressure from Western allies to join efforts condemning North Korea-Russia military cooperation and to align more closely against China and Russia.

U.S. and Chinese flags flutter outside the building of an American company in Beijing, China April 8. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

The biggest variable on the diplomatic stage this year is Trump. Experts warn of a possible repeat of the 2018 G7 summit in Canada, when Trump famously clashed with then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other Western leaders — underscoring the need for strategic positioning from South Korea.

“Korea’s position between a Trump-led challenge to the liberal order and the Western-led resistance — the so-called ‘counter-Trump’ front — will be key,” said Sohn Yul, president of the East Asia Institute. “Trump’s push for decoupling from China and bilateral tariff talks are issues that effectively force Korea to choose sides, so careful preparation is essential.”

Resolving bilateral issues with the United States is also urgent. South Korea and the United States have set July 8 as the deadline for a bilateral tariff agreement. But with former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and former Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok having resigned, observers say the key components of the so-called “July Package” will likely be decided after the election.

Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul asked U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a phone call on May 6 to allow “sufficient time for consultations” given Korea’s election timeline. However, the United States has reiterated that it will respond without exception.

Britain's then Prime Minister Boris Johnson, center, with from left, Italy's then Prime Minister Mario Draghi, Australia's then Prime Minister Scott Morrison, then German Chancellor Angela Merkel, South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa, South Korea's then President Moon Jae-in, US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, Canada's then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Japan's then Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and then President of the European Council Charles Michel during the G7 summit in Cornwall, England, Saturday June 12, 2021. (Leon Neal/Pool via AP)

To address such issues, the next administration is expected to push for an early bilateral summit with the U.S., possibly via a visit to Washington. But before that, experts stress the need for a firm stance on the North Korean nuclear issue — a core national security concern.

With North Korea's Kim Jong-un gaining Russian backing and Trump sending friendly signals toward Pyongyang, South Korea must adopt a more evolved strategy. Trump's penchant for forming lasting first impressions adds urgency to how the new president handles early encounters.

This challenge ties directly to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju in late October to early November — considered the apex of South Korea's diplomatic calendar this year — where the aim is to bring both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping together for a U.S.-China summit.

This file photo, provided by Seoul's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, shows Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, first on right, and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, first on left, holding talks on the margins of an international security conference in Munich, Germany, on Feb. 15. [MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS]

“The next president must hold a Korea-U.S. summit shortly after the election to coordinate tariffs and security on the Korean Peninsula, and establish a foreign policy framework,” said Shin Beom-chul, senior fellow at the Sejong Institute. “Then, proactive engagement with China will be needed to realize a U.S.-China summit at APEC and secure Korea’s diplomatic leverage.”

“On North Korea, we must clearly reaffirm the principle of ‘complete denuclearization,’ while maintaining flexibility to engage in dialogue based on mutual understanding with the United States,” said Shin.

Meanwhile, the spotlight is also on the new president’s diplomacy ahead of the 60th anniversary of South Korea-Japan normalization of relations on June 22.

In 2015, marking the 50th anniversary, then-President Park Geun-hye and then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attended each other’s embassy receptions. This year, attention is on the new president’s Japan message at a June 16 reception hosted by the Japanese Embassy in Jongno District, central Seoul.

However, the G7 summit in Canada overlaps with the reception, making physical attendance impossible if the president participates in the G7.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
BY PARK HYUN-JU [[email protected]]