PPP under pressure to consolidate as DP's Lee maintains solid campaign lead

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PPP under pressure to consolidate as DP's Lee maintains solid campaign lead

Published: 14 May. 2025, 10:37 Updated: 14 May. 2025, 19:28

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

People Power Party presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo speaks at a rally at Jagalchi Market in Busan on May 13. [JOONGANG ILBO]

A potential conservative alliance to counter Democratic Party (DP) candidate Lee Jae-myung’s dominant lead has emerged as a key variable, as Korea’s presidential race heads into its final stretch.

Discussions between People Power Party (PPP) candidate Kim Moon-soo and Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok have yet to begin in earnest, but backroom maneuvering is already underway.

The PPP is under greater pressure to consolidate. An earlier attempt to replace Kim with former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo fell apart amid internal discord, triggering a leadership crisis and a rift among pro-Yoon factions. Ultimately, Kim registered as the party’s nominee, but his staunch right-wing image — highlighted by his opposition to former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment — limits his appeal beyond the conservative base.

Within the PPP, unifying with Lee Jun-seok is seen as essential. Lee Jun-seok’s independence from pro-Yoon forces — who expelled him from the party after the Dec. 3 martial law declaration — makes him less vulnerable to the DP's ongoing “coup” narrative. At 40 years old, Lee Jun-seok also represents a generational shift compared to the 73-year-old Kim, potentially revitalizing the conservative image.

Reform Party presidential candidate Lee Jun-seok, second from right, shakes hands with People Power Party lawmaker Woo Jae-jun at a market in Daegu. [YONHAP]

Frustration against former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon, who frequently clashed with former President Yoon, has also softened resistance toward Lee Jun-seok among hardline conservative voters — a factor seen as favorable to the PPP's unification efforts.

During heightened infighting earlier this month between Kim and Han Duck-soo loyalists, some pro-Yoon PPP lawmakers reportedly even considered defecting to the Reform Party.

“Han Dong-hoon’s decision not to join the central election committee and instead focus on his own leadership campaign has only deepened frustration. More lawmakers are now seeing Lee Jun-seok as a future leader who can reform the conservative sector, regardless of the election outcome.”

Lee Jun-seok, for his part, has remained composed. His strategy is clear: repeat his own strategy that led to his upset win in the April general election last year. Running in Hwaseong, Gyeonggi, he overcame early setbacks in a three-way race by appealing to younger, moderate voters, ultimately defeating both the DP and PPP candidates.

His team now aims to keep Kim’s support under 20 percent to create a “4:4:2” balance in the race, with Lee Jae-myung at 40 percent, Lee Jun-seok at 20 percent, and Kim marginalized.

“Many people believe Kim can’t beat [Lee Jae-myung],” Lee Jun-seok said during an MBC Radio interview on Tuesday.

“More voters are beginning to root for the underdog and hoping for a David-and-Goliath story.”

Reform Party presidential candidate Lee Jun-seok speaks at a rally at the February 28th Jungang Memorial Park in Daegu on May 13. [YONHAP]

Two major variables remain. First is Lee Jun-seok’s polling numbers. If he surpasses the 15 percent threshold that guarantees full reimbursement of campaign expenses, he is likely to stay in the race to assert his influence in a post-election conservative reshuffling.

Even if he passes 10 percent — the minimum for partial reimbursement — he could claim leverage in any potential negotiations. However, if his numbers drop below 5 percent, PPP insiders may hesitate to pursue unification due to fears of backlash or diminished momentum.

The second wildcard is Lee Jae-myung’s own support level. Recent three-way polls show him holding steady in the mid-to-high 40 percent range, with Kim around 30 percent and Lee Jun-seok in single digits. If Lee Jae-myung’s numbers fall into the low 40s, pressure on conservatives to unite will intensify. But if his support crosses the 50 percent mark, PPP leaders may pivot to long-term party reform strategies, weakening the push for unification.

From left: Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung, People Power Party presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo and Reform Party presidential candidate Lee Jun-seok campaign at Daegu, Ulsan and Daegu, respectively, on May 13. [YONHAP]

The chess game between the two conservative camps has already begun. Lee Jun-seok has dismissed talk of unification as political theater, repeatedly emphasizing Kim’s limited appeal.

After a campus visit to Kyungpook National University, Lee Jun-seok told reporters, “Instead of talking about unifying with me, Kim should focus on building a big tent with people like Pastor Jeon Kwang-hoon or the Free Unification Party. Though I’m not sure how big — or how torn — that tent would be.”

His camp sees the upcoming televised presidential debates, scheduled for May 18 and 23 before ballot papers go to print, as a potential turning point in the race.

Meanwhile, Kim’s camp has moved decisively to push for unity, launching a task force headed by Shin Sung-bum, a third-term lawmaker from the anti-Yoon faction.

Shin, who voted to end martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, and currently serves on the same National Assembly committee as Lee, is seen as a bridge between the two candidates.

On Monday, Kim apologized for the martial law imposition, while newly appointed PPP emergency committee chair Kim Yong-tae called for Yoon’s resignation from the party — moves widely interpreted as overtures toward Lee Jun-seok.

At a rally in Busan, Kim addressed speculation about the proposed conservative coalition.

“Rather than the Free Unification Party, I’ll be working with Han Duck-soo, Lee Jun-seok and Lee Nak-yon,” he said, signaling a broad, if ambitious, vision for unity.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
BY KIM KI-JEONG [[email protected]]