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Tensions with China partly to blame for North Korean rice price climb

Published: 18 May. 2025, 07:00

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un speaks during the meeting of the 7th Plenary Session of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers’ Party on Feb. 26, 2023. [YONHAP]

Rice prices in North Korea — a crucial commodity that directly affects the daily lives of its people — have soared in recent years, with analysts pointing to deteriorating relations with China as one of the key external factors.

Despite receiving flour and other grains from Russia in exchange for military support and arms shipments, North Korea has failed to rein in the surging rice prices in local markets, suggesting that cooperation with Russia alone is insufficient to address the regime’s broader economic woes.

Observers say the issue of securing a stable supply of essential goods and raw materials, particularly rice, could prompt North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to draw closer to Chinese President Xi Jinping once again.

The ‘grain production battle’

The Rodong Sinmun, North Korea’s official newspaper, ran a front-page story Thursday highlighting the completion of irrigation projects over the past two years and the restoration of farmland into rice paddies. The article emphasized the regime’s push for rural modernization.

The newspaper prominently featured rice planting efforts under a headline that said new rural villages continue to rise on Sunday. The campaign appears to reflect the regime’s growing anxiety over public discontent stemming from skyrocketing rice prices.

A photo depicting a rice planting operation appears on the front page of North Korea’s official Rodong Sinmun on May 11. [RODONG SINMUN]

In 2022, Pyongyang revised its grain management law to enable state control over rice sales, further linking production levels and price fluctuations to Kim’s leadership skills. Experts argue that the root cause of the rice price hike lies in the regime’s forced march toward a state-led economy and that a sharp drop in rice imports from China last year only exacerbated the issue.

North Korea imported just 50,000 tons of rice from China in 2024, down from roughly 280,000 tons the previous year — a precipitous decline of more than 80 percent, according to the Ministry of Unification.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates North Korea’s annual grain shortage to be 800,000 to 1 million tons. Against that backdrop, a shortfall of 230,000 tons in rice imports is significant. In 2023, North Korea’s total rice output was about 1.77 million tons, roughly 36 percent of South Korea’s.

The sharp drop in Chinese rice imports may stem from the revival of Pyongyang’s “state monopoly trade system,” announced at the Supreme People’s Assembly in February 2022. This system allows the central government to micromanage all aspects of foreign trade, reversing earlier practices where local entities could independently import Chinese grain. The increased control likely curtailed the flow of imports.

President of Russia Vladimir Putin and President of China Xi Jinping shake hands after arrival in the Kremlin for a gala concert held for heads of foreign delegations, in Moscow on May 8, 2025, ahead of celebrations of the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany during World War II. [AP/YONHAP]

Additionally, China’s efforts to rein in North Korea — especially since Pyongyang began dispatching troops to support Russia — may have contributed to reduced trade.

According to Chinese customs data, North Korea’s trade with China fell from $2.295 billion in 2023 to $2.180 billion in 2024. Analysts say this decline reflects Beijing’s move to enforce “legal pressure” and curtail illicit activities following North Korea’s deeper alignment with Russia.

Russia offers relief, but limitations remain

For now, North Korea is receiving flour and other grains from Russia in exchange for its military cooperation, which likely wards off an imminent food crisis akin to the 1990s “Arduous March.” However, experts agree that Russia’s fundamentally incompatible industrial structure limits its ability to sustain North Korea’s sanctions-strangled economy in the long term.

Recent signs of rapprochement between Pyongyang and Beijing may also be linked to this reality. Should Kim seek to stabilize the exchange rate and inflation — both rattled by excessive provincial development and military production efforts for Russia — improving ties with China could become a strategic necessity.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un shake hands during their meeting at the Vostochny cosmodrome outside the city of Tsiolkovsky, about 200 kilometers (125 miles) from the city of Blagoveshchensk in the far eastern Amur region, Russia, on Wednesday, Sept. 13, 2023. (Vladimir Smirnov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

With major events such as the 80th anniversary of the Workers’ Party in October and the Ninth Party Congress early next year looming, Kim is increasingly focused on showcasing economic achievements, including increased grain production and regional industrial projects. If ensuring food and consumer goods supply becomes a priority, North Korea may have little choice but to pivot back to China — potentially setting the stage for a dramatic diplomatic thaw.

Still, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service recently told lawmakers that while Pyongyang may be hedging against a postwar fallout in Ukraine by seeking improved ties with Beijing, relations remain “at a standstill” due to China’s continued efforts to exert pressure on the regime.

Given North Korea’s deepening military ties with Moscow, some analysts believe the so-called “Russia effect” will persist for the time being.

“Whether through official trade or smuggling, the volume of Chinese imports directly impacts North Korea’s economy,” said Lim Eul-chul, a professor of North Korean studies at Kyungnam University. “However, with improving ties with Russia and rising demand for flour and other substitutes, there seems to be less pressure on Pyongyang to rely on Beijing like it did in the past.”

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
BY LEE YU-JUNG, CHUNG YEONG-GYO [[email protected]]