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Birth, growth, decay and death

Published: 23 May. 2025, 00:02

Choi Jin-seok

The author is a Principal of the Saemal Saemomjit School

Nothing escapes the cycle of birth, growth, decay and death. The Roman Empire, which once seemed eternal, eventually proved this rule. So did Goguryeo, Goryeo and Joseon. Even humankind may one day face extinction. The only variable is the length of time it takes. A weak individual may pass quickly through the cycle, while those who awaken midcourse and strive for strength can sometimes extend it. The same applies to nations.

The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty are on display inside the National Museum of the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty, which opened in November 2023 in Pyeongchang County, Gangwon. [CULTURAL HERITAGE ADMINISTRATION]

Countries that begin with strong foundations — the so-called advanced nations — experience a different trajectory than those born weak, often labeled developing or underdeveloped. Their historical arcs differ in resilience and duration. This divergence became especially evident following the Industrial Revolution (1760—1840), which reshaped global civilization. By the 1820s, the class structure, political systems and international order were completely redefined. Historians now call this shift the “Great Divergence.”

Nations that emerged as leaders during this period have largely maintained their positions. Countries that lagged behind have mostly remained trapped in a lower status. While some have occasionally shown signs of rapid development — rising to mid-tier or semi-advanced levels — none have successfully transitioned into enduring leadership roles. Eventually, they fall back. Argentina is a frequently cited example. Today, Korea appears to be following a similar trajectory.

Korea’s rise was remarkable, a story often described as miraculous. Emerging from poverty, the country transformed into a global economic player. However, such a rise is rarely linear. At critical junctures, nations must “awaken” to new paradigms. Korea’s opportunity came in the form of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, a disruption in the global framework that gave latecomers a chance to leap forward. It was a rare window in history. But taking advantage of such disruption requires vision, coordination and national clarity. That is where Korea may be faltering.

Nations that fail to awaken and adapt show four common symptoms: extreme political conflict, social fragmentation, populism and systemic corruption. These are not abstract concerns. Korea, in recent decades, has seen five presidents emerge amid economic stagnation. Of those, three faced impeachment proceedings. Two were impeached. One committed suicide. Of the remaining two, one served prison time. The other rejected the very identity of the nation he led. Can a country governed under such leadership for 20 years truly be expected to maintain its prosperity?

Samsung Elecronics' booth at the MWC 2025 trade show that was held in Barcelona, Spain, from March 3 to 6. [SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS]

In the twilight years of the Joseon Dynasty (1392-1910), the scholar Jeong Yak-yong (Dasan, 1762—1836) observed, “There is no part of this country that is not diseased. If we do not reform now, the nation will perish, and only then will it stop.” Joseon collapsed 74 years after Dasan’s death and became a colony of Japan — a nation that had awakened and industrialized.

Declining nations often show signs of judicial collapse. As political struggles intensify, the rule of law becomes a casualty. During Joseon's early days, the monarchy, ministers and the inspection offices (including censors and historians) were designed to check each other. But under tyrants like King Yeonsan, political purges destroyed this balance. The censors — effectively the media and judiciary — were weakened, allowing royal overreach. In every era, would-be autocrats have sought to control or dismantle judicial systems. Those who attempt to subvert the judiciary are almost always despots in disguise.

King Jeongjo, regarded as an enlightened ruler, also weakened the inspection offices in his push for reform. His desire for unchecked authority sidelined the legal system. As a result, after his death, factionalism deepened and aristocratic domination returned. This hastened Joseon’s collapse.

Dasan lived during the first wave of industrialization. Korea now lives through its fourth. Regardless of political structure, a country that embraces industrial growth prospers. Those that fail regress. Industrial revival depends on keeping pace with technological change. Political conflict and a broken legal system prevent agile, effective policy in response to these shifts. Korea is showing signs of this failure.

Elementary school students study using AI-powered digital textbooks during an open class on April 10 at Yonggye Elementary School in Dalseong County, Daegu. [YONHAP]

At the core of Joseon’s decline was its inability to respond to technological transformation. The same may be true for Korea today. The nation has not yet positioned itself decisively in the age of artificial intelligence. Political dysfunction and institutional breakdown are key reasons. When internal divisions are severe enough to erode legal foundations, national competitiveness inevitably suffers.

Korea may already be on the path to decline. The only remaining hope lies in a collective awakening — but such awakenings are rare. Is 74 years a long time? That was the distance between Dasan’s warning and Joseon’s fall. Without urgent reform, Korea may not have even that long.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.