Why voter sentiment is shifting ahead of the election
Published: 26 May. 2025, 00:02
Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI
Choi Hyeon-chul
The author is national news editor at the JoongAng Ilbo.
Two weeks before Korea’s early presidential election, recent polls have shown a notable shift in voter sentiment. Support for Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung has dipped, narrowing the gap between him and People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo to single digits. When combined, support for Kim and Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok now surpasses Lee Jae-myung’s alone — a sharp contrast to just a week earlier when Lee had exceeded 50 percent support.
![People watch the second presidential election debate in the waiting area of Seoul Station in central Seoul on May 23. [YONHAP]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/05/26/81769ad3-9768-4132-97ae-6e6ca6800dd2.jpg)
What has changed? Little has shifted within the conservative camp. Former President Yoon Suk Yeol recently rented out a theater to screen a film alleging electoral fraud, rallying his base and continuing to justify his imposition of martial law. Even within his own party, calls to sever ties with Yoon and his wife have grown louder, but Kim Moon-soo has largely remained silent. Lee Jun-seok’s support has crossed the 10 percent mark, but he has firmly rejected talk of unification. Public sentiment remains firmly opposed to martial law and overwhelmingly in favor of punishing those involved in insurrection. Yet, voter uncertainty is growing. The reason appears to lie with Lee Jae-myung himself.
In a news conference on May 25, Lee stated that the path to restoring democracy was to “acknowledge political opponents and revive a culture of dialogue and coexistence.” During the second televised debate on May 23, he took a pragmatic tone, saying that while he supports nuclear phaseout and expanded welfare, they could not be pursued immediately due to budgetary constraints.
But Lee’s words have often been undermined by contradictory actions. His stance appears to shift when his own legal or political security is involved. Nowhere is this more evident than in his party’s treatment of the judiciary. After a high court ruled in his favor in a case involving election law violations, the Democratic Party praised the judiciary. But when the Supreme Court overturned that decision just a month later, the response was swift and aggressive. The party pushed for a hearing on Chief Justice Jo Hee-de and raised the possibility of impeaching 10 justices who supported the majority opinion. It also floated a special prosecutor to investigate Jo, and some lawmakers even proposed a bill to expand the Supreme Court to 30 justices, allowing for appointments without bar qualifications. The proposal raised alarms, with critics warning that figures like Kim Eo-jun, a political commentator, could be nominated. Lee later urged caution and called for internal restraint, but doubts persist.
Early in the campaign, Lee’s strategy was to avoid controversy and maintain discipline. But as his poll numbers rose, his rhetoric became more combative. That shift raises fears among voters that he may adopt a different posture entirely if he wins. Many recall how the previous president ran on fairness and reason, only to govern with rigidity and insularity. That memory, more than any realignment in the political field, may explain the volatility in voter sentiment.
![Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung holds his first press conference since the start of the official campaign on the morning of May 25. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/05/26/ec0817d2-3709-4150-952a-b57f91c5b0a7.jpg)
History offers plenty of warnings. In countries across the world, democratic backsliding has often begun not with military coups but through the quiet erosion of judicial independence. Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, for example, increased the number of Supreme Court justices from 20 to 32, and the court ceased to issue rulings against the government. As noted in “How Democracies Die” (2018), the stated goal was to build a “cleaner” judiciary, but the actual aim was to consolidate power. There are concerns that while Lee speaks of ending insurrection, some in his party may quietly hope to follow a similar path.
Democracy must operate through systems, not individuals. A functioning democracy requires mutual respect and a shared understanding that power changes hands through elections. When voters dislike a leader, the proper recourse is to compete on policies and earn support through persuasion — not to dismantle institutional safeguards. Restraint and ambiguity are not enough. What voters are looking for, just eight days before an election prompted by an unconstitutional attempt at control, is a clear, consistent commitment to democratic norms.
Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
The author is national news editor at the JoongAng Ilbo.
Two weeks before Korea’s early presidential election, recent polls have shown a notable shift in voter sentiment. Support for Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung has dipped, narrowing the gap between him and People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo to single digits. When combined, support for Kim and Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok now surpasses Lee Jae-myung’s alone — a sharp contrast to just a week earlier when Lee had exceeded 50 percent support.
People watch the second presidential election debate in the waiting area of Seoul Station in central Seoul on May 23. [YONHAP]
In a news conference on May 25, Lee stated that the path to restoring democracy was to “acknowledge political opponents and revive a culture of dialogue and coexistence.” During the second televised debate on May 23, he took a pragmatic tone, saying that while he supports nuclear phaseout and expanded welfare, they could not be pursued immediately due to budgetary constraints.
But Lee’s words have often been undermined by contradictory actions. His stance appears to shift when his own legal or political security is involved. Nowhere is this more evident than in his party’s treatment of the judiciary. After a high court ruled in his favor in a case involving election law violations, the Democratic Party praised the judiciary. But when the Supreme Court overturned that decision just a month later, the response was swift and aggressive. The party pushed for a hearing on Chief Justice Jo Hee-de and raised the possibility of impeaching 10 justices who supported the majority opinion. It also floated a special prosecutor to investigate Jo, and some lawmakers even proposed a bill to expand the Supreme Court to 30 justices, allowing for appointments without bar qualifications. The proposal raised alarms, with critics warning that figures like Kim Eo-jun, a political commentator, could be nominated. Lee later urged caution and called for internal restraint, but doubts persist.
Early in the campaign, Lee’s strategy was to avoid controversy and maintain discipline. But as his poll numbers rose, his rhetoric became more combative. That shift raises fears among voters that he may adopt a different posture entirely if he wins. Many recall how the previous president ran on fairness and reason, only to govern with rigidity and insularity. That memory, more than any realignment in the political field, may explain the volatility in voter sentiment.
Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung holds his first press conference since the start of the official campaign on the morning of May 25. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]
Democracy must operate through systems, not individuals. A functioning democracy requires mutual respect and a shared understanding that power changes hands through elections. When voters dislike a leader, the proper recourse is to compete on policies and earn support through persuasion — not to dismantle institutional safeguards. Restraint and ambiguity are not enough. What voters are looking for, just eight days before an election prompted by an unconstitutional attempt at control, is a clear, consistent commitment to democratic norms.
Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
with the Korea JoongAng Daily
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