DP's Lee still enjoys leads in hypothetical head-to-head races, but gap narrows

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DP's Lee still enjoys leads in hypothetical head-to-head races, but gap narrows

Published: 27 May. 2025, 05:30

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

From left: Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung delivers a speech at the Sky Road in Daejeon, People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo campaigns at Seomun Market in Daegu and Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok appeals to voters at Cheonggye Plaza in central Seoul on May 12. [YONHAP]

Democratic Party (DP) presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung maintains over 50 percent support in hypothetical head-to-head races even if the conservative bloc unifies behind a single candidate, according to a poll commissioned by the JoongAng Ilbo and conducted by Gallup Korea from Saturday to Sunday.

The margin, however, has narrowed compared to three weeks ago.

Gallup Korea conducted the poll last weekend, immediately after the second televised debate.

In a scenario where the People Power Party unites behind their candidate Kim Moon-soo, Lee Jae-myung leads 52 percent to Kim’s 42 percent.

Lee Jae-myung also enjoys a lead over Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok, 51 percent to 40 percent.

These margins — 10 over Kim and 11 percentage points over Lee Jun-seok — are wider than the combined support of Kim and Lee Jun-seok in a multi-candidate field. Lee Jae-myung holds 52 percent in a three-way race, while both Kim and Lee Jun-seok hold a combined 46 percent.

Compared to a previous Gallup Korea survey conducted three weeks ago — immediately after Kim won the party nomination — support for all three candidates rose.

Lee Jae-myung led Kim 52 percent to 39 percent at the time, and the DP candidate held 51 percent compared to Lee Jun-seok's 29 percent.

While Lee Jae-myung’s support remained steady above the 50 percent threshold, Kim and Lee Jun-seok saw increases of 3 and 11 percentage points, respectively.

Analysts noted the gap in the multi-candidate scenario between first-place Lee Jae-myung at 49 percent and second-place Kim at 35 percent shrinks when the conservatives consolidate.

If Kim becomes the unified candidate, his support rises by 7 percentage points while Lee Jae-myung’s rises by 3 points.

Among Lee Jun-seok supporters, 52 percent say they would back Kim, while 29 percent would support Lee Jae-myung. Eighteen percent chose neither or declined to respond.

If the conservatives instead unify behind Lee Jun-seok, his support jumps by 29 percentage points, while Lee Jae-myung’s rises only 2 points.

Among Kim supporters, 76 percent say they would shift to Lee Jun-seok, while 6 percent say they would back Lee Jae-myung. Eighteen percent had no preference or did not respond.

“In the last presidential election, support for Ahn Cheol-soo split roughly evenly between Yoon Suk Yeol and Lee Jae-myung after unification,” Heo Jin-jae, a senior researcher at Gallup Korea, told the JoongAng Ilbo.“This time, fewer supporters of either Kim or Lee Jun-seok indicate a willingness to back Lee Jae-myung, so the unification effect may be stronger.”

Lee Jae-myung, Democratic Party presidential candidate, greets supporters after finishing a campaign speech in Namyangju, Gyeonggi on May 26. [NEWS1]

However, the idea of a unified conservative candidate reveals a sharp divide between Kim and Lee Jun-seok supporters.

When asked whether a merger between Kim and Lee Jun-seok would be a good idea, 84 percent of Kim supporters said yes, while 57 percent of Lee Jun-seok’s backers said no. Among all respondents, 40 percent favored the merger, while 43 percent opposed it.

In response to a question about who should lead a unified ticket, 51 percent of all respondents chose Kim, while 30 percent selected Lee Jun-seok.

Among Lee Jae-myung supporters, 32 percent favored Kim and 36 percent favored Lee Jun-seok — a relatively even split.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
BY KIM KI-JEONG [[email protected]]