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Conservative merger falters as differences prove too deep

Published: 30 May. 2025, 00:02

Kim Jung-ha

The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.

At around midnight on May 28, Kim Moon-soo, the presidential candidate for the People Power Party (PPP), visited the National Assembly office of Lee Jun-seok, candidate for the Reform Party. The visit was reportedly aimed at pursuing a last-minute deal on merging their candidacies. But with Lee absent, the meeting did not take place.

Whether the late-night visit was a genuine attempt at dialogue or a political show remains unclear. Still, Kim’s persistence in seeking a merger despite Lee’s repeated and unequivocal rejection only underscores the former’s desperation.

Reform Party presidential candidate Lee Jun-seok speaks during a special election spotlight dialogue hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea (Amcham) at the Grand Hyatt Seoul on May 22. [YONHAP]

In retrospect, this may be a case of poetic justice. During the PPP primary, Kim had promised to merge candidacies with Han Duck-soo, a former prime minister. But after winning the nomination, Kim refused to follow the party’s proposed schedule and delayed the process until Han effectively dropped out. Now, Kim finds himself expecting cooperation from a candidate in a different party — an assumption that appears increasingly unrealistic. With early voting already underway, the likelihood of a Kim–Lee merger is virtually zero.

From the beginning, a conservative merger was unlikely. The two camps have fundamentally different outlooks on the election. For the PPP, preventing Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party (DP) from winning the presidency is the overriding objective. But for Lee Jun-seok, this election is a stepping stone toward 2030.

Kim Moon-soo has no such luxury. A defeat would likely mark the end of his political career, so he has no choice but to give everything now. Lee, on the other hand, sees opportunity in the post-election realignment of the conservative bloc, should the PPP lose. A failed merger could work to his long-term benefit.

People Power Party presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo speaks during a campaign rally in Jung District, central Seoul on May 19. [JOONGANG ILBO]

Even if a merger were agreed upon, there is no guarantee it would change the outcome. If the PPP candidate was neck and neck with Lee Jae-myung in the polls, Lee Jun-seok might have been more flexible. A defeat in that context could leave him branded as a spoiler — “another Lee In-je” — effectively ending his political future.

But current polling suggests that even if Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok’s support were combined, they would still trail Lee Jae-myung. Furthermore, there is no evidence that Lee’s support would transfer to Kim in the event of a withdrawal. Many of Lee’s backers support the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol and may be unwilling to vote for a candidate associated with him. Should Lee exit the race, many of his supporters may choose to abstain — or even vote for Lee Jae-myung.

The defining moment came when the PPP selected Kim Moon-soo as its nominee. Had the party instead chosen figures with personal or political ties to Lee Jun-seok — such as former lawmaker Yoo Seong-min, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon or Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo — a merger might have been feasible. Even Han Duck-soo or former Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon would have been more acceptable.

But Kim Moon-soo, with his close alignment to Yoon Suk Yeol, represented a red line. Lee Jun-seok, who was expelled from the party during Yoon’s presidency, has been one of the ousted president's fiercest critics. His supporters share that animosity. For Lee, aligning with Kim would not only be politically questionable but psychologically intolerable.

At this stage, talk of a merger should be put to rest. It is time for each candidate to focus on their own path. Kim Moon-soo, who won the nomination through fierce internal battles, should now campaign with full commitment and accept whatever results follow. In any election, both victory and defeat are the responsibility of the candidate.

Lee Jun-seok, for his part, must prepare for a scenario in which a Lee Jae-myung administration comes to power. That would mean operating independently, without support from the mainstream conservative party. He must be ready to stand alone.

The situation may grow even more precarious for Lee. During the May 27 televised debate, he made a pointed remark about Lee Jae-myung’s son that sparked backlash from the DP. Some DP lawmakers are now discussing a motion to expel him from the National Assembly.

From left, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, Kwon Young-kook of the Democratic Labor Party, Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party and Lee Jun-seok of the minor New Reform Party pose for a photo ahead of their third and final debate on May 27 at the MBC studio in Mapo District, western Seoul. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]

A motion to strip a lawmaker of their seat requires approval from two-thirds of all members. If just a few lawmakers from the PPP vote in favor, Lee could lose his parliamentary status. In this high-stakes environment, neither side has the luxury of missteps.

With election day approaching, the conservative bloc remains fractured. What began as a tentative hope for unity has ended in mutual estrangement. And as the campaign enters its final stretch, both Kim and Lee must face the consequences of decisions that now seem irreversible.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.