Exit polls a useful tool for gauging voter motivations. But do they have their limits?
Published: 31 May. 2025, 08:00
-
- SARAH KIM
- [email protected]
Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI
![People line up to cast their ballots early at a polling station in Gangnam District, southern Seoul, during the two-day advance voting period on May 30. [NEWS1]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/05/31/0eefc21e-1ff4-4a3c-9200-458ecf14ea83.jpg)
People line up to cast their ballots early at a polling station in Gangnam District, southern Seoul, during the two-day advance voting period on May 30. [NEWS1]
Thus, the first true reflection of public sentiment won't be confirmed until the exit polls are released after voting ends on Election Day next Tuesday evening.
The National Election Commission (NEC) said that no opinion polls showing support for candidates or parties and election outcomes may be published or cited in media reports in the six days leading up to Election Day. The polling blackout period came on the eve of the two-day early voting period on Thursday and Friday.
However, polls conducted before the blackout period can still be released if the period during which it was conducted is clearly indicated. Likewise, previously released poll results may continue to be cited.
This contrasts with countries like the United States, which have no polling blackout period.
According to the NEC, the restriction of opinion surveys in the days leading up to Election Day is intended to prevent last-minute poll results from unfairly influencing voter behavior or compromising the election's fairness.
Thus, exit polls on early voters do not exist as they are barred by election regulations.
The three terrestrial broadcasters KBS, MBC and SBS traditionally conduct a joint exit poll, which they simultaneously release right after polling ends. Exit polls were regularized in Korea only in the 1990s.
The joint exit poll for the snap election is expected to be released right after voting closes Tuesday at 8 p.m.
An exit poll is a survey targeting voters who have just cast their ballots on Election Day, asking them which candidate they voted for and why they chose them. It is so named because it is conducted at the exit of a polling station. The sample is designed to represent all voters, and support for each candidate is estimated based on factors including the respondent's gender, age and region.
While the official results of the presidential election will be counted and revealed in several hours, the exit polls intend to explain voter choice, rather than just predict election results. It reflects on why voters chose candidates.
![People vote at a polling station at Incheon Airport International on May 30, the last day for early voting. [NEWS1]](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/data/photo/2025/05/31/9a7aafb2-4c6d-4ad7-9d8f-179d384c80c4.jpg)
People vote at a polling station at Incheon Airport International on May 30, the last day for early voting. [NEWS1]
In the 2022 presidential election, a record 36.93 percent of voters voted early, leading to criticism that exit polls that only survey same-day voters have limitations. However, there is a difference in candidate support rates between early and same-day voters, and a methodology that considers this difference is already being used, according to the pollsters.
In Korea, exit polls cannot be conducted within 50 meters (164 feet) of a polling station.
For Tuesday's snap election, the three broadcasters, KBS, MBC and SBS, will form a Korea Election Pool (KEP) with the Korean Broadcasting Association to conduct an exit poll predicting the winner of the 21st presidential election.
"Exit polls fulfill the people's right to know by reporting election results quickly and accurately," Lee Min-young, chairperson of the KEP, said. "Exit poll data also has great significance as the only tool to verify the government and the NEC's fair election management."
The KEP added that citing exit poll results without their permission violates the law.
Cable broadcaster JTBC, an affiliate of the Korea JoongAng Daily, which conducted separate exit polls during the 2022 presidential election and 2024 general election, will not conduct an exit poll for this race.
BY SARAH KIM [[email protected]]
with the Korea JoongAng Daily
To write comments, please log in to one of the accounts.
Standards Board Policy (0/250자)