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Declining voter turnout could be bad news for Kim Moon-soo

Published: 01 Jun. 2025, 18:09 Updated: 01 Jun. 2025, 18:12

Voters wait in line to cast their ballots for the 21st presidential election during early voting period on May 30 in southern Seoul. [NEWS1]

With 28,968,264 eligible voters yet to cast their ballots, the outcome of Korea’s presidential election now hinges on whether they turn out — and if so, whom they support.

Experts say the key variables in the final stretch include conservative voter mobilization, the preferences of undecided and so-called shy conservatives and the impact of late-campaign controversies involving minor-party candidates and public figures.

“Early voting turnout in the Daegu-North Gyeongsang region had dropped compared to the last presidential election — from 37.66 percent to 28.69 percent — despite both major parties encouraging early voting because voter sentiment has not solidified as much as expected,” said Cho Gwi-dong, head of political strategy at Min Political Consulting.

“The real variable is how many of these disheartened voters can be mobilized for Election Day.”

Much also depends on whether swing voters and anti-Lee Jae-myung conservatives gravitate toward People Power Party (PPP) candidate Kim Moon-soo or Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok. Analysts suggest these voters remain undecided, caught between a “bandwagon effect” favoring the perceived front-runner and an “underdog effect” that draws support to a surging outsider.

“This election is fundamentally unfavorable to the PPP because it was the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol that led to the snap election in the first place,” said Lee Jae-mook, a professor of political science at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

Voters wait in line to cast their ballots for the 21st presidential election during early voting period on May 30 in southern Seoul. [YONHAP]

“Yet Kim Moon-soo’s campaign has not made a strong effort to court moderates or shy conservatives — the core reason he’s struggling. If the campaign can definitively resolve the Yoon issue within the next three days, that could still sway the race.”

Late-campaign controversies may also influence voter sentiment. Kim Dae-jin, head of research firm Jowon C&I, downplayed the impact of past allegations involving Lee Jae-myung’s son, calling it “stale bait” from 2021.

Kim referred to the backlash to a controversial remark made by Lee Jun-seok during the third televised presidential debate last week, in which he used an explicitly vulgar expression involving a female body part while questioning Kwon Young-guk of the Democratic Labor Party with an attempt to strike a blow at Lee Jae-myung.

“The bigger effect may be on Lee Jun-seok’s own momentum and his support could even fall below 10 percent,” Kim said.

By contrast, political commentator Lee Jong-hoon argued that attacks on Lee Jun-seok by the Democratic Party and its allies might be inadvertently boosting his visibility.

“The final image in voters’ minds is shaping up as a Lee Jun-seok versus Lee Jae-myung race,” he said. “That could shift more anti-Lee Jae-myung votes toward Lee Jun-seok.”

Public officials on May 30 move boxes filled with ballots cast during the presidential election's early voting period in Seoul. [YONHAP]

However, a separate controversy involving Rhyu Si-min, a prominent liberal commentator and former minister, is expected to hurt Lee Jae-myung’s campaign.

Rhyu came under fire for describing the wife of conservative presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo as “not in her right mind.”

“Controversies like these can influence Election Day turnout, especially since it takes about four days for such narratives to fully circulate — and that’s exactly where we are now,” said Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University.

The three major presidential candidates will hold their final rallies on Monday.

National Election Commission staff on May 31 check ballots cast during the presidential election's early voting period in Seoul. [NEWS1]

Political insiders said Sunday that Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung has chosen Western Seoul's Yeouido Park as the site of his final campaign event. He is expected to deliver his speech facing the National Assembly, which played a key role in lifting martial law during the Dec. 3 crisis last year.

Kim will hold his closing rally at Seoul Plaza in front of City Hall — the same site where Yoon held his final campaign rally during the last presidential election.

Lee Jun-seok is considering either Gangnam District, southern Seoul, or Daegu for his final rally.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
BY YOU SEONG-UN, SHIN SU-MIN, HAN YOUNG-HYE [[email protected]]