Experts diagnose balancing U.S.-China tensions and North Korea risk as most pressing diplomatic, security tasks for South Korea's next president

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Experts diagnose balancing U.S.-China tensions and North Korea risk as most pressing diplomatic, security tasks for South Korea's next president

Published: 01 Jun. 2025, 17:45 Updated: 01 Jun. 2025, 18:52

SEO JI-EUN
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Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivers a speech during the 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on May 31. [AP/YONHAP]

[NEWS ANALYSIS]

With South Korea’s snap presidential election set for June 3, the country’s next president faces an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape — tasked with navigating a shifting U.S. posture, an emboldened China and a nuclear North Korea deepening its ties with Russia.

Adding to the pressure, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Saturday delivered a strong message on Indo-Pacific strategy through his keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, warning that the United States is “reorienting toward deterring aggression by communist China.”

Hegseth said that "China seeks to become a hegemonic power in Asia" and "hopes to dominate and control too many parts of this vibrant and vital region."

He then called out countries “seeking both economic cooperation with China and defense cooperation with the United States” — a veiled critique of allies like South Korea — and urged partners to “do their part.”

South Korea received only passing mention in Hegseth’s speech at the security forum, adding to speculation that the ongoing leadership vacuum in Seoul, following former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment triggered by his controversial martial law declaration, is having a real-time impact on its visibility within the U.S. security calculus. The remarks, made just days before South Korea's vote, are seen by some observers as setting a sharper baseline for the incoming Korean administration amid the intensifying U.S.-China rivalry.

Presidential candidates Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, left, and Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party shake hands ahead of the second televised debate at KBS headquarters in Yeongdeungpo District, western Seoul, on May 23. [NEWS1]

Rival presidential candidates Lee Jae-myung of the liberal Democratic Party and Kim Moon-soo of the conservative People Power Party both hail the U.S. alliance as the bedrock of South Korean security, but their strategies diverge, from inter-Korean engagement to extended nuclear deterrence.

Foreign affairs and security experts say that the next president must be ready to lead in a complex era of shock and fear — while at the same time, early crisis management will be crucial with the snap election leaving no time for a proper transition.

Still, many believe that regardless of who wins, Seoul's overall foreign policy direction is unlikely to undergo drastic change with U.S. President Donald Trump’s second-term "America First" approach gaining strength and tensions between Washington and Beijing deepening.

[JOONGANG ILBO]

Alliance: Shared foundation, different emphasis

Both Lee and Kim stress the importance of the 72-year-old South Korea-U.S. alliance as foundational for the country's security.

However, they are split over exclusive reliance on the United States and how to handle other great powers.

Lee, for his part, insists he would maintain a strong alliance but with more autonomy.

“There’s no need for us to fully depend on the alliance,” Lee said in response to a moderator’s question during a televised debate in Seoul on May 18. Diplomacy, he argues, should be focused on "national interest and practicality" rather than ideological alignment.

Kim’s approach tilts unmistakably toward Washington.

The conservative candidate espouses a “value-based” alliance, arguing that democratic solidarity and trust with Washington should guide Seoul’s foreign policy.

He has pledged to meet Trump in person as soon as possible if elected, and even said he is willing to discuss Seoul paying more for the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in Korea, a longstanding demand by the U.S. president.

“People are nervous if President Trump says let’s raise [South Korea’s share] […] I believe we can raise it to a certain degree,” Kim said in a meeting with the American Chamber of Commerce Korea on May 19, adding that ensuring a robust U.S. military presence is more important than haggling over cost.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Korea Harry Harris, who served during Trump’s first term and visited Korea for the Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity, acknowledged that negotiations over defense cost sharing could indeed be revisited under Trump’s second term.

Former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Harry Harris speaks to reporters during a press briefing at the Jeju Forum held at the International Convention Center Jeju in Seogwipo on May 30. [YONHAP]

“I think that both governments agreed on a new cost-sharing agreement [last October], but that's no guarantee that it can't be changed,” Harris said on Friday in reply to a question from the Korea JoongAng Daily, noting that Trump “will ask our allies to do more.”

Hegseth, in his address Saturday, urged Asian allies to step up their defense spending, citing the example of European countries pledging 5 percent of their GDP. “It doesn’t make sense,” he said, “[for] key allies in Asia to spend less on defense in the face of an even more formidable threat, not to mention North Korea.”

Still, Harris emphasized the enduring nature of the alliance and dismissed fears that any U.S. troop restructuring would amount to abandonment.

“I believe that if — if, there's a keyword here — if there was a restructuring of some forces in Korea, ultimately it would serve to defend Korea better than it would have,” he said, citing recent reports of Pentagon discussions about possibly redeploying some U.S. Forces Korea troops that were later denied. “The 28,500 military personnel […] would be augmented by tens of thousands of troops from other locations throughout the Indo-Pacific and the United States, including [U.S. forces] based in Japan.”

Lee, by contrast, has signaled he would push back on excessive U.S. demands that hurt South Korea’s interests.

He identifies U.S. trade pressure and tariffs as issues to be managed carefully, aligning with concerns that Trump’s tariff-centric strategy — described by former Foreign Minister Song Min-soon as “foul play” against multilateral rules — will be difficult to sustain.

"South Korea needs to transition from an overly dependent alliance with the United States toward a more self-reliant partnership," said Song, who served as top envoy during the Roh Moo-hyun administration, during a Jeju Forum session. "This is also something the United States desires."

Yun Byung-se, who served as foreign minister in the Park Geun-hye administration, advised South Korea to "broaden mutual understanding through cooperation in areas like shipbuilding, energy and defense, clearly conveying Seoul's stance on the 'America First' policy."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un [JOONGANG ILBO]

North Korea: Engagement vs. pressure

The starkest policy contrasts between Lee and Kim lie in their approaches to North Korea’s nuclear threats.

Lee advocates a return to diplomacy and conditional engagement, arguing that easing tensions is paramount to preventing conflict.

He pledges to restore direct inter-Korean communication channels and pursue agreements to prevent “tension-causing” actions on both sides. While immediate breakthroughs may be unrealistic, Lee supports renewed top-down diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang. Since Trump’s inauguration in January, Trump has signaled interest in meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un again.

Kim's stance on Pyongyang is far tougher.

He has made “peace through strength” his mantra, prioritizing military readiness and pressure over dialogue. Kim has not emphasized any immediate offers of negotiations or summit proposals from Seoul’s side.

But the challenges ahead for the next president are sobering.

Lam Peng Er, senior fellow at the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore, warned that Pyongyang’s strengthened ties with Moscow have bolstered Kim Jong-un’s leverage.

“Much has changed since the 2019 Hanoi summit,” he said. “Besides the Chinese economic lifeline, Kim has benefited from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a transactional relationship, North Korea offered troops, labor, weapons and ammunition to Russia, while the latter could provide food, energy, diplomatic support and various technologies to the DPRK," referring to the official name for North Korea.

“The DPRK is actually in a stronger position today than in 2019 and there’s no need for Pyongyang to pursue a so-called bad deal with Trump," he added. "To be sure, Trump 2.0 has little leverage over North Korea […] Simply put, a Trump-Kim summit is not on the cards for the time being.”

Scott Snyder, director of the Korea Economic Institute, expressed concern that Seoul’s influence may be waning.

“I think that South Korea is no longer positioned to be an intermediary — a much greater risk of Korea-passing,” he said.

[JOONGANG ILBO]

Nuclear deterrence and defense posture

Kim Moon-soo's hawkish security platform includes bold nuclear deterrent proposals, such as the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea or even pursuing a homegrown nuclear arsenal — options unthinkable a few years ago.

He calls for enhancing nuclear deterrence in tandem with the United States, potentially through “NATO-style nuclear sharing” arrangements or the stationing of U.S. nuclear assets in Korea.

Such steps, while popular with a segment of South Korean voters frustrated by Pyongyang’s provocations, would be controversial internationally.

Lee firmly rejects the idea of South Korea developing nuclear weapons or hosting them.

He has vowed not to pursue nuclear armament, sticking to the status quo of the U.S. “nuclear umbrella” — the extended deterrence guarantees provided by the U.S. arsenal — while pursuing diplomatic risk-reduction measures like improved inter-Korean military hotlines and conflict prevention agreements.

Former Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan, who served under the Lee Myung-bak administration, noted that regardless of who leads South Korea, maintaining credible deterrence is key.

“The South Korea-U.S. alliance should focus on strengthening extended deterrence against North Korea’s nukes,” Kim advised at the Jeju Forum, urging Seoul to be flexible and “not rush” in handling sensitive trade negotiations or defense cost talks with Washington.

Chinese President Xi Jinping [JOONGANG ILBO]

China policy

The candidates' divergence continues in their approaches to China and broader international outreach.

Kim Moon-soo casts South Korea squarely as part of the U.S.-led community of democracies, such as the Quad’s working groups or technology alliances — which China dislikes. Kim accuses his opponent of being too accommodating to Beijing.

Kim’s aides have argued that clearly siding with the United States strengthens South Korea’s security legitimacy, whereas hedging between Washington and Beijing — as they allege Lee would do — could erode trust.

Lee, however, advocates a more calibrated approach to China.

He contends that South Korea can uphold its alliance with the United States and maintain a working relationship with Beijing.

"There is no need to intentionally exclude or stand hostile to China or Russia,” Lee said during the debate on May 18, reiterating that diplomacy must be rooted in national interests, not ideology. He has promised to stabilize the relationship with China, describing it as an indispensable economic partner and critical influence on Korean Peninsula security.

Yet, experts caution there may be structural limits.

“I think that there are some natural limits on how closely South Korea and China can work with each other under current conditions, given the fact that South Korea and China are direct competitors in so many economic sectors,” Snyder told the Korea JoongAng Daily on the sidelines of the Jeju Forum on Wednesday, referring to sectors such as shipbuilding and even mobile phones.

Snyder added that tensions following the deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system in South Korea in 2016 have had lasting economic repercussions, particularly on Korean business strategy in China.

From left: U.S. President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Japanese politician Shigeru Ishiba and Russian President Vladimir Putin [JOONGANG ILBO]

Diplomatic diversification

Lee complements his foreign policy with an emphasis on outreach to the Global South, aiming to strengthen ties with emerging powers in regions like Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America as a way to diversify South Korea’s diplomacy beyond the U.S.-China rivalry.

He also pledges a “future-oriented” approach to Japan — seeking economic and cultural cooperation — although he was critical of his predecessor’s Japan policy, arguing Seoul gave too much without getting enough in return. Lee says he will cooperate with Tokyo on shared security and economic interests while "reacting strongly" to any new historical slights from Japan.

Kim, by contrast, wholeheartedly welcomed Yoon’s rapprochement with Japan and would continue strengthening a trilateral axis with the United States.

Kenichiro Sasae, president of the Japan Institute of International Affairs, expressed hope that South Korea's next leader would build on past diplomatic achievements rather than dismantle them.

“Whoever becomes the next president, historical issues between our countries must be resolved by building upon previous efforts,” Sasae said during a roundtable interview on Wednesday. "It would be desirable for whichever candidate is elected not to reverse past achievements but to move forward constructively."

BY SEO JI-EUN [[email protected]]