No such thing as a wasted vote

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No such thing as a wasted vote

Published: 03 Jun. 2025, 00:02

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Choi Min-woo

The author is the head of the political news department at the JoongAng Ilbo.

Early voting for Korea’s 21st presidential election, held on May 29 and 30, recorded a turnout of 34.74 percent — 2.19 percentage points lower than the previous presidential election. The first day’s momentum had suggested a possible record high, but participation dropped on the second day.

Lee Jae-myung, presidential candidate of the liberal Democratic Party, campaigns in front of Seoul Express Bus Terminal in Seocho District, southern Seoul on May 29. [NEWS1]

Several factors are believed to have contributed to the decline. Unlike the previous election, early voting was held on weekdays rather than over a weekend. Meanwhile, continuing revelations of administrative lapses at the National Election Commission have undermined public trust. More fundamentally, a growing perception that the outcome is already decided may have discouraged voters from turning up. Many are asking, “Why bother, when the result seems obvious?”

This perception is not entirely unsupported by the final opinion polls published before the May 28 blackout period. Yet political analysts argue that the race is far from over — and even if the winner seems apparent, every vote still matters. In this election, vote shares are expected to have far-reaching consequences beyond simply determining the next president.

Lee Jae-myung’s anticipated landslide

Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung’s campaign appears confident of victory. Internal projections show Lee polling in the high 40 percent range, followed by People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo in the high 30s and Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok near 10 percent. Lee’s recent remarks on the Youtube program “News Factory,” where he spoke of the delay in former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment verdict as his most difficult moment, were interpreted by many as a de facto victory speech.

Lee’s supporters hope for more than just a win — they want a commanding lead. A landslide victory would reinforce the legitimacy of his presidency and silence opposition challenges. While Lee’s ongoing criminal trial is likely to be suspended if he wins, a narrow margin could fuel future attacks on his authority. As commentator Yoo Si-min put it, the administration must “win big” to suppress what he describes as ongoing threats from antidemocratic forces.

Lee’s campaign has set its sights on securing a majority of the vote. Internally, they are aiming to surpass the highest vote share since Korea’s current democratic system was established in 1987 — 51.55 percent, achieved by former President Park Geun-hye in 2012. Reaching that milestone would give Lee strong momentum to push through early reforms.

Kim Moon-soo’s late surge

The Kim Moon-soo camp claims that the race has shifted in its favor. On June 1, Kim declared, “The tide has turned. A reversal is underway.” His team believes the late-stage controversies surrounding Lee Jun-seok’s sexually suggestive comment and past online posts by Lee Jae-myung’s son helped consolidate support behind Kim as a more morally grounded alternative. In addition, Yoo Si-min’s disparaging remarks about Kim's wife Seol Nan-young have reportedly galvanized conservative voters.

Kim Moon-soo, presidential candidate of the conservative People Power Party, participates in early voting with his daughter at a community center in Gyeyang District in Incheon on May 29. [LIM HYUN-DONG]

The campaign is now pinning its hopes on a surge in Election Day votes. Early voting in the conservative stronghold of Daegu came in at a low 25.63 percent, but a large turnout on June 3, especially across the broader Yeongnam region, could produce a dramatic comeback. Should overall turnout exceed the 77.1 percent mark from three years ago, a reversal might be possible.

Still, political analysts note that even a loss could be meaningful if Kim manages to secure over 40 percent of the vote. Falling short of that, especially with a result in the 30s, could spell a deeper crisis for the conservative bloc. The Democratic Party is already preparing to file a petition with the Constitutional Court seeking to label the People Power Party an unconstitutional entity due to its refusal to support the lifting of martial law on Dec. 3 last year.

Lee Jun-seok’s strategic play

Lee Jun-seok’s Reform Party took a hit following the backlash over his controversial remarks. Still, his campaign believes he will surpass the 10-percent mark. With voters wary of both Lee Jae-myung’s alleged authoritarianism and Kim Moon-soo’s association with the former president’s emergency rule, some believe Lee Jun-seok could attract more than 15 percent of the vote.

Reform Party presidential candidate Lee Jun-seok speaks during an emergency press conference held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, western Seoul on May 30. [YONHAP]

Such a showing would position him as a pivotal figure in any future conservative realignment. However, if his vote share slips to the mid-single digits, it may damage his credibility and fuel criticism that he undermined the right’s chances of returning to power.

For those still undecided or disillusioned, the election may appear to offer no good choices. But elections are often about selecting the lesser of evils. Apathy or despair may seem easy now, but their consequences could echo well beyond June 3. In a democratic republic, voting is not just a right — it is a citizen’s most basic responsibility.

There is no such thing as a wasted vote.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.