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From Trump tariffs to North Korea-Russia ties, full plate of diplomatic challenges awaits President Lee

Published: 05 Jun. 2025, 18:08

President Lee Jae-myung on April 27, after being nominated as the party’s presidential candidate. [YONHAP]

With President Lee Jae-myung’s inauguration, summit diplomacy — halted without warning for the past six months — can now resume.

Amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff pressure, from which seemingly no ally is safe, and China’s increasingly blatant gray-zone provocations, it is time to begin addressing the diplomatic tasks that await the new president's attention.

G7 and NATO invitations

President Lee’s first official diplomatic appearance may be at the Group of 7 (G7) summit set for June 15 to 17 in Canada. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated he looked forward to Korea’s participation, and a formal invitation is expected to be sent soon. Lee pledged to pursue “G7+ membership” during his campaign.

“For South Korea, which participates as an observer, the G7 invitation carries considerable symbolic weight since it is not extended annually,” said a source involved in shaping Lee’s foreign and security policy. “While this is a good opportunity to show the international community that state affairs have normalized under President Lee, domestic issues must be weighed first.”

Some caution has surfaced regarding Lee’s possible participation in the NATO summit to take place June 24 to 26 in the Netherlands. On May 25, Lee himself expressed hesitancy, saying, “The domestic situation is chaotic and complicated. Unless there’s a specific agenda item, I’m not sure whether it’s necessary to attend.”

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks on stage at his campaign headquarters after the Liberal Party won the Canadian election in Ottawa on Tuesday, April 29. [AP/YONHAP]

A Democratic Party (DP) official commented, “NATO may make demands that put pressure on South Korea,” noting that participation could give the impression of continuing the foreign policy line of former President Yoon Suk Yeol. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022, Yoon attended the NATO summit for three consecutive years as one of the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4) — South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

However, there are concerns that preemptively distancing from NATO could mean missing a symbolic opportunity to signal the resumption of South Korea’s summit diplomacy. As liberal democracies close ranks to counter China and Russia, skepticism may arise about the Lee administration’s “pragmatic diplomacy” if it is perceived as passive.

The G7 and NATO summits are also significant as they offer an early chance to meet Trump in person. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who met Trump in the United States in February, is reportedly planning two additional meetings on the sidelines of these events.

“We must carefully consider whether immediately stepping into multilateral forums is the right move,” said Jung Dae-jin, a professor at Halla University in Wonju. “In an era of high volatility under Trump, maintaining the importance of the South Korea-U.S. alliance while responding flexibly to changing circumstances requires strategic thinking.”

Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivers a speech at the Japan-Brazil Economic Forum in Tokyo on March 26. [AFP/YONHAP]

Zone 7 tensions with Japan

President Lee’s Japan policy is being watched closely by both Tokyo and Washington. Lee projected stability on Wednesday, saying that Korea and Japan "share common interests" and that "consistency in state-to-state relations is especially important.”

The first litmus test may come at the June 16 reception hosted by the Japanese Embassy in Seoul to mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties. In 2015, for the 50th anniversary, then-President Park Geun-hye and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made cross-visits to each other’s receptions. Should Lee attend the G7 summit, he could hold his first meeting with Prime Minister Ishiba in Canada.

A potential flashpoint is the issue of “Zone 7,” a maritime area that inflames public sentiment. Starting June 22, the anniversary of normalization, either country can notify the other of terminating the South Korea-Japan Joint Development Zone Agreement with three years’ notice. Concerns are rising that Japan may withdraw from the agreement and unilaterally begin resource development in undelimited waters, ignoring international law.

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with China's President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 29, 2019. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Responding to China

South Korea-China relations have deteriorated amid deepening anti-China sentiment following the Dec. 3 martial law scare and rising tensions over structures built in the Yellow Sea’s Provisional Measures Zone (PMZ). The added complexity of encouraging Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend the APEC summit in Gyeongju this October further complicates the response.

A ruling party insider said about the structures, “This isn’t a matter that requires urgent reaction,” adding, “The focus should be on managing the situation so that China doesn’t cross further lines.”

Still, there are warnings that China’s probing gray-zone tactics will continue unless met with firm responses.

“We should actively encourage Xi’s attendance at APEC, but that must not lead to passive behavior on key issues like the Yellow Sea structures,” said Joo Jae-woo, a professor of Chinese studies at Kyung Hee University.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un exchange documents during a signing ceremony of the new partnership in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 19, 2024. [AP/YONHAP]

North Korea-Russia military partnership

The North Korea-Russia military partnership is a critical issue with direct implications for Korean Peninsula security. However, in October of last year, Lee criticized the government's strong response to reports of North Korean involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war, saying, “We’re getting involved in another country’s war.”

In both campaign pledges and forums, he has refrained from direct comments on the North Korea—Russia relationship, saying only, “We will handle North Korea-Russia relations from a national interest-first perspective.”

Still, North Korea has reportedly received weapons systems and missile upgrade technology from Russia while gaining modern warfare experience on the battlefield. This deepening partnership directly threatens South Korea and warrants a more serious view.

The Multinational Sanctions Monitoring Team (MSMT), an 11-nation body led by South Korea and the United States, recently targeted the North Korea-Russia partnership in its first report. Experts warn that South Korea must not undermine the international coalition it has helped build. The issue is also expected to be a major topic at the NATO summit.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
BY PARK HYUN-JU [[email protected]]