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Kim Jong-un holds all the cards as global powers court Pyongyang

Published: 16 Jun. 2025, 00:02

Chang Se-jeong

The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.

As the world watched Israel carry out a surprise airstrike on an Iranian nuclear facility on June 13, one can imagine North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observing closely. He may have breathed a sigh of relief at having secured what he considers the “ultimate weapon.” The fates of Muammar Qaddafi and Saddam Hussein — who were killed after abandoning their nuclear ambitions or being suspected of having them — likely crossed his mind. The war in Ukraine may have offered another cautionary tale, where a nuclear-free Ukraine was left vulnerable to Russian invasion.

The Rodong Sinmun reported on June 5 that Kim Jong-un, right, met with Sergei Shoigu, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, during his visit to North Korea on June 4. [NEWS1]

North Korea, which has long manipulated global diplomacy with staged denuclearization talks, is now openly accelerating its nuclear buildup. On June 9, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Pyongyang is constructing a new uranium enrichment facility in Yongbyon, North Pyongan Province. This would be the regime’s third known nuclear site, following an existing one in Yongbyon and another in Kangson.

In March, North Korea released images of what it claimed to be a new “nuclear-powered strategic guided missile submarine.” Alongside its nuclear program, Pyongyang is also expanding its conventional arsenal, projecting increasing military confidence from Kim.

Meanwhile, international outreach to North Korea has intensified, boosting Kim’s diplomatic leverage. Russia, isolated by its war in Ukraine, has drawn closer to Pyongyang, receiving conventional weapons in return. In June of last year, the two countries reportedly restored a mutual defense pact that includes automatic military intervention provisions. The relationship deepened further in April when North Korea admitted it had sent troops to aid Russia, and again in June when senior North Korean military officials attended Russia’s Victory Day celebrations in Moscow.

Pak Yong-il, deputy director of the Korean People's Army General Political Bureau, center, shakes hands with a Russian military official in this photo released by the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency on April 29. The KCNA reported that a delegation led by Pak is attending the 3rd International Anti-Fascist Forum in Russia. [YONHAP]

As Moscow and Pyongyang grow closer, Beijing appears uneasy. Reports suggest China is quietly exploring ways to re-engage North Korea, including the possibility of inviting Kim to visit Beijing. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has also reiterated Tokyo’s desire to reopen talks with Pyongyang to address the longstanding issue of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea.

U.S. President Donald Trump has sent multiple messages indicating his desire to reconnect with Kim as well, saying he “got along well with the North Korean leader.” Trump reportedly tried to deliver a personal letter to Pyongyang via a diplomatic channel in New York, but the North refused to accept it. After the humiliating breakdown of the 2019 Hanoi summit, Kim now appears unwilling to engage without significant concessions.

On the Korean Peninsula, Kim likely viewed the downfall of former President Yoon Suk Yeol — particularly the political self-sabotage triggered by the Dec. 3 martial law crisis last year — with satisfaction. The new administration of President Lee Jae-myung has offered olive branches to Pyongyang since taking office after the June 3 snap election. Last Wednesday, Lee ordered a halt to loudspeaker broadcasts near the border, prompting North Korea to stop its own anti-South broadcasts the following day. Earlier, the Ministry of Unification reversed its stance and declared a ban on civilian balloon launches toward the North.

But even as Lee attempts to rekindle inter-Korean dialogue under his “peace economy” vision, North Korea is being courted on all sides — not just by China and Russia, but also by the United States and Japan. It remains to be seen how generously Kim will respond.

The administrations of former liberal Presidents Kim Dae-jung, Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in invested heavily in summit diplomacy, only to see the North Korean nuclear issue and inter-Korean relations return to square one. In the absence of a broad domestic consensus, the over-politicization of North Korea policy left little room for sustainable progress.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, center, visits a shipbuilding site where his country constructs nuclear weapon-carrying submarine on March 8. [RODONG SINMUN]

Engaging a shrewd counterpart like Kim requires more than goodwill. A robust defense posture is essential. That includes public backing, the trust of allies and a capable military. Appointing a politically inexperienced civilian as defense minister is ill-timed, given the intense military standoff. The government must also resist the premature pursuit of wartime operational control from the United States and prepare for potential troop reductions or redeployments under Trump’s second term.

Since late 2023, Kim has adopted a “state of war” framework, declaring South Korea a hostile nation rather than a partner for unification. While it would be wrong to view unification as unattainable, equally misguided is the belief that tensions can be resolved quickly or easily.

If Seoul rushes in with unprepared or overly optimistic offers, Kim — holding all the advantage — will only raise the price. What is needed now is not blind hope, but levelheaded strategy. Staying grounded in reality and adjusting course with wisdom may be the only way forward.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.