A unified government’s perils and promises

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A unified government’s perils and promises

Published: 19 Jun. 2025, 00:01

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Jang Deok-jin

The author is a professor of sociology at Seoul National University.

Three years ago, I wrote in this newspaper that the success of the newly launched Yoon Suk Yeol administration would hinge on restoring checks and balances. In a column published on May 23, 2022, I argued that the limits of a divided government — where the opposition held a legislative majority — could be turned into strengths. A functioning system of democratic counterweights, I suggested, might in fact win public support.

Just three months later, I described Yoon’s presidency in another paper as a patchwork of power — an authority cobbled together from disparate sources. His fate, I wrote, would depend on whether he could maintain and expand that fragile coalition. As we all now know, he chose the opposite path. By ignoring the logic of power-sharing, Yoon not only failed to consolidate his rule, but ultimately lost the presidency altogether.

President Lee Jae Myung delivers his inaugural address as the 21st president at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, on June 4. [NEWS1]

Now begins the Lee Jae Myung administration — governing under very different conditions. Unlike his predecessor, Lee commands both the executive and legislative branches. But this is not just a matter of holding a parliamentary majority. Many of the Democratic Party lawmakers in the National Assembly are staunch loyalists Lee himself ushered in during his tenure as party leader. Judicial independence is under question, and the administration faces few formal obstacles to constitutional revision. The tasks before President Lee are far removed from those that confronted Yoon at the start of his term.

This presidential election also unfolded differently. In previous cycles, voters tended to harden their support for their preferred candidate as election day approached. This time, some of those opposed to Lee began to say — almost in resignation — “Maybe he’ll govern well, if elected.” Whether these remarks were questions or hopes is unclear. But they emerged just as Lee was pivoting toward the center, courting moderate and conservative voters. For some conservatives disillusioned with their options, Lee’s overtures offered a thin strand of optimism.

New President Lee Jae-myung salutes the flag at his inauguration ceremony at the National Assembly in western Seoul on June 4. [LIM HYUNG-DONG]

Unified government, unlike divided government, brings its own strengths and risks. The obvious advantage is the ability to implement policy efficiently. But this power cuts both ways. The Moon Jae-in administration, which began and ended under strong single-party control, pushed through income-led growth and punitive real estate measures at breakneck speed. Those decisions inflicted wide economic pain, especially on individuals and businesses, and ultimately cost the ruling party its hold on government.

If a unified government adopts centrist policies, it may achieve lasting success. But should it pursue ideological extremes, the fallout can be severe. Worse, if the administration responds to failure by doubling down on unilateral control, democracy itself may erode.

So far, President Lee has struck a more moderate tone than in the past. In his early days in office, he has offered centrist-sounding remarks. But these words have not been matched by clear commitments or documentation. Take real estate policy, for example. During the campaign, when asked whether he would continue the Moon administration’s punitive tax measures, Lee replied that they had proven unpopular and would be discontinued. That response reassured center-right voters. But just days later, he revived his “Basic Society” platform, which hinges on funding policies like universal basic income — initially to be financed by additional real estate taxes. His progressive base cheered, but the ambiguity remains. His policy book offers little clarity.

Eventually, all administrations face a downturn in public approval. In healthy democracies, presidents tend to move toward the center when support wanes. Yoon did the opposite. In the face of declining approval, he turned rightward, even invoking martial law—a move that contributed to his downfall.

Former President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers his inaugural address during the inauguration ceremony for the 20th president at the National Assembly on the morning of May 10, 2022. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]

But Lee’s support base differs structurally from Yoon’s. It originated on the far left and only gradually expanded toward the center. His core backers are strongest on the left; support weakens as one moves right. If Lee’s approval falters, he may feel pressure to revert to more radical positions to shore up his base. The danger is real: unlike the Yoon administration, which faced resistance from an opposition-controlled legislature, Lee’s government lacks institutional checks. Recall the moment on December 4 last year, when the National Assembly blocked martial law under Yoon. In Lee’s case, there may be no such brakes.

In this environment, the only person capable of restraining the president is the president himself. The very allies who shielded Lee from legal jeopardy and helped elevate him to the presidency may soon urge him toward overreach. Their political investments lie in that direction.

The central question, then, is this: Can President Lee consolidate centrist support before approval ratings begin to decline?

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.