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South Korea alarmed by Iranian penetration of Israel's missile shield

Published: 20 Jun. 2025, 07:00

A missile launched from Iran towards Israel is seen from Ramallah, Israeli-occupied West Bank, June 16, 2025. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Iran’s recent retaliation that penetrated Israel’s air defense network is being seen by some as a preview of the kind of mixed and high-volume missile attack North Korea could be preparing against South Korea.

The variety and quantity of North Korea’s missile arsenal — long considered a growing threat — have now been demonstrated in real-world terms through the events in the Middle East.

According to The Times of Israel and other international media, Iran’s retaliatory strikes, which lasted for three days beginning on June 13, killed at least 13 people and injured over 380. The attack hit both military facilities and civilian areas, and the fact that a ballistic missile landed in a residential zone inside Israeli territory was seen as highly unusual.

Israel, which had built what many considered the world’s most sophisticated and dense air defense network within its narrow territory, saw its defenses falter. Even though the Iron Dome is designed primarily to intercept short-range rockets and not ballistic missiles, other systems in Israel’s multilayered defense — such as Arrow-3 and Arrow-2 for upper and exo-atmospheric interception, and David’s Sling for midrange defense — also showed limitations during the assault.

The Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept missiles during an Iranian attack over Tel Aviv, Israel, Sunday, June 15, 2025. [AP/YONHAP]

The trail of a projectile is seen through the clouds following a missile alert after launches from Iran, in Jerusalem, early Monday, June 16, 2025. [AP/YONHAP]

Iran’s new ‘Haj Qasem’ ballistic missile

Many in the military community have pointed to Iran’s layered attack strategy as a key reason for its partial success. Of particular note is the deployment of Iran’s new solid-fuel medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), the Haj Qasem.

Capable of flying over 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) at speeds exceeding Mach 10 — and over Mach 5 during the terminal phase — the missile is said to be maneuverable during its descent and is designed to bypass U.S.-supplied missile defense systems such as Thaad and Patriot, according to Iranian claims.

Experts believe that when such missiles are launched together with older conventional ballistic missiles, the result is a complex, multidimensional strike that overwhelms defenses.

“When missiles with different flight characteristics are launched together, the combination of vertical and horizontal variables makes interception much more difficult," said Kwon Yong-soo, a missile expert and emeritus professor at Korea National Defense University.

Missiles launched from Iran are intercepted as seen from Tel Aviv, Israel, June 16, 2025. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

An explosion is seen during a missile attack in Tel Aviv, Israel, Sunday, June 15, 2025. [AP/YONHAP]

Iran reportedly launched over 200 older missiles along with Haj Qasem missiles in rapid succession. Additionally, drones were deployed — likely to open gaps in the defense through wave-style tactics that apply layered pressure. In such scenarios, the drones serve as decoys while a swarm of fast and hard-to-intercept ballistic missiles like the Haj Qasem follow, potentially straining air defense capacity.

North Korea and Iran's ‘shadow coordination’?

The implications for Korea are significant. North Korea’s rapid progress in both the quantity and variety of its missile arsenal is increasingly viewed as targeting the South. Observers warn that North Korea has begun to surpass Iran, Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi forces in missile capability — all while maintaining covert missile cooperation with those actors.

One example is North Korea’s anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), tested in the East Sea in 2017, which had a reported circular error probability of only 7 meters. Analysts suspect it was developed through technical collaboration with Iran, which also possesses ASBMs.

A drone photo shows the damage over residential homes at the impact site following missile attack from Iran on Israel, in Tel Aviv, Israel, June 16, 2025. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

That same year, North Korea also test-fired a modified Scud capable of terminal-phase maneuvers. Since 2019, it has heavily invested in short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) such as the KN-23, KN-24 and KN-25 — all part of a broader strategy to improve strike precision and diversity.

At the same time, North Korea appears intent on building an overwhelming launch volume.

Its close-range ballistic missile (CRBM) systems, developed after the SRBM trio, are reportedly deployed on the front lines via hundreds of transporter-erector-launchers (TELs). At a handover ceremony in August last year, 250 TELs — each with four launch tubes — were observed, suggesting that North Korea could, at least theoretically, unleash up to 1,000 missiles in a single wave. In addition, long-range artillery positioned along the front line is capable of firing more than 10,000 shells per hour.

Korean military's layered defense

South Korea’s military believes its Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system can adequately counter North Korea’s missile threat.

Korea's Thaad batteries in Seongju, North Gyeongsang [NEWS1]

It currently includes U.S. Forces Korea’s Thaad batteries for high-altitude interception at 40 to 150 kilometers, PAC-3 systems for low-altitude interception at 15 to 40 kilometers and the domestically developed M-SAM (Cheongung-II) for medium-range defense. A long-range surface-to-air missile system (L-SAM) is also scheduled for deployment between 2027 and 2028, to further enhance multi-layer coverage.

Still, unease remains. A military source speaking on condition of anonymity said, “Even Israel’s highly accurate air defense system revealed vulnerabilities due to interceptor shortages.”

Some also speculate that North Korea may be closely watching the redeployment of certain Patriot systems from South Korea to the Middle East, as the United States responds to regional tensions. North Korea may use Iran’s attack as a tactical case study — just as it reportedly refined its KN-23 capabilities through deployment in the Russia–Ukraine war.

“North Korea is likely using Iran’s strikes to simulate how air defense systems respond to varying numbers and types of targets, including drones and missiles,” said Professor Kwon.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
BY LEE KEUN-PYUNG, LEE YU-JUNG [[email protected]]