President Lee’s real challenger is ‘Lee Jae Myung five years from now’

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President Lee’s real challenger is ‘Lee Jae Myung five years from now’

Published: 26 Jun. 2025, 00:02

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Lee Hyun-sang

The author is the head of the editorial board at the JoongAng Ilbo.

In Korean politics, a single five-year presidential term inevitably begins with a confrontation — not with opponents across the aisle, but with one’s predecessor. Regardless of whether there has been a change in ruling party, every new president starts by repudiating the administration before them.

President Lee Jae Myung, center, holds a press conference aboard the presidential plane en route to Calgary, Canada, to attend the Group of 7 summit on June 16. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]

For President Lee Jae Myung, who took power after the unprecedented declaration of martial law in December, confronting the legacy of former President Yoon Suk Yeol was never in question. His intent is being carried out with striking clarity: Three special counsels, all launched simultaneously, involving around 120 prosecutors — roughly six percent of the entire prosecutorial workforce — are now investigating Yoon and his administration.

Compared with past transitions, President Lee finds himself in a uniquely favorable position. The bar set by his predecessor is perceived to be low. While legal judgments are still pending, the court of public opinion has already rendered its verdict on Yoon. A prosecutorial statement invoking the Confucian maxim “law does not bow to the powerful” feels almost unnecessary in this context.

The former president’s failure lies in having assumed the presidency without any elected experience. Yoon’s career as a prosecutor never prepared him for democratic governance. His leadership style — suited to leading an investigative team — proved ill-equipped for national leadership. In contrast, Lee rose through the political ranks, winning six elections at various levels: mayor, governor, lawmaker and now president. He has shown a survivalist’s political instincts, having endured repeated challenges and defeats. His tactical shift to the center during the presidential campaign, often described as a “rightward pivot,” allowed him to capture undecided voters. Now, in office, his emphasis on “pragmatism” appeals to the political middle.

His approach contrasts sharply with his predecessor’s. While Yoon’s inaugural address referenced “freedom” 35 times — widely seen as a move to anchor himself within far-right ideology — Lee has positioned himself as practical and centrist. Despite controversy over his nominee for prime minister, the early days of Lee’s presidency have been met with cautious optimism. His Cabinet selections, signals of cooperation with opposition lawmakers and debut on the international stage at the Group of 7 (G7) summit in Canada have all earned qualified praise.

Yet much of this favorable reception may be due to a political base effect — where even ordinary actions feel refreshing after years of dysfunction. By historical standards, Lee has merely been governing with basic competence. If such behavior is hailed as an accomplishment, it may reflect how low expectations have become.

Lee’s greatest challenge will not be Yoon, but rather the “Lee Jae Myung of five years from now.” In a conversation aboard the presidential jet en route to the G7 summit, Lee expressed hope that his approval ratings would rise by the end of his term. If realized, this would mark a historic shift in Korean politics, where every president to date has ended their term with plummeting support.

Political scientists attribute this decline to the widening gap between “values” promoted during campaigns and the “realities” of governance. According to a 2012 paper by Moon Woo-jin, a professor at Ajou University, values crafted for electoral gain often become hollow or disappointing when tested in real-world governance.

Lee’s pragmatic message is now being tested. Economic legislation such as the “Yellow Envelope Bill,” the Grain Management Act, and amendments to the Commercial Act present early trials. While in opposition, clear messaging was enough. Now, as head of government, Lee must grapple with policy consequences. If he allows controversial clauses to pass unamended, critics may question his pragmatism. If he hesitates, he risks alienating his own support base.

The reappointment of Minister of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs Song Mi-ryeong, who previously opposed the Grain Act under the Yoon administration, suggests Lee is seeking a realistic path forward. But backlash from within his party and from farmers’ groups has already begun, accusing the government of betrayal.

Former President Yoon Suk Yeol appears at the Seoul Central District Court in Seocho District, southern Seoul, on June 23. [YONHAP]

If Lee is serious about governing with pragmatism, such challenges will persist throughout his term. Pragmatism often invites more attacks than praise. Without careful calibration, he may lose support from both his base and the center. To avoid this, he must strengthen the philosophical core of his approach — openness to differing truths, not expedient calculation.

Pragmatism, to avoid devolving into opportunism, requires consistency, self-reflection and humility. These are not qualities commonly associated with Lee’s ruling Democratic Party. A president cannot ignore the political energy of his base, but must also seek equilibrium between mobilizing core supporters and expanding appeal to others. That means reining in hardliners who have alienated centrists. Breaking with the past may require symbolic acts — such as the constitutional reform Lee has promised.

If he can manage that, he may just win the contest that truly matters: against the Lee Jae Myung of five years from now.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.