Trump pressures Japan and Korea to drastically boost defense spending

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Trump pressures Japan and Korea to drastically boost defense spending

Published: 02 Jul. 2025, 00:04

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Cha Se-hyeon

The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.

The three largest hosts of U.S. troops — Japan, Germany and Korea — are facing renewed pressure from the Trump administration to significantly increase their defense budgets. The push comes in line with a recent NATO agreement that calls for member nations to raise their defense spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2035, including 3.5 percent in direct military expenditure and 1.5 percent in related costs.

U.S. President Donald Trump, Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan listen to NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte during a North Atlantic Council plenary meeting during the the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, Wednesday, June 25, 2025. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

As of 2025, the defense-to-GDP ratios of the three countries stand at 2.4 percent for Germany, 1.8 percent for Japan, and 2.3 percent for Korea at 61.2 trillion won ($45.1 billion). For reference, the United States — despite its massive defense budget of $997 billion in the 2024 fiscal year — still falls short of the NATO goal, with a ratio of 3.38 percent of GDP.

Germany, alarmed by growing military threats from Russia, has laid out an ambitious plan to nearly double its defense spending to 152.5 billion euros ($179.7 billion) by 2029. This would raise its defense-to-GDP ratio from 2.4 percent in 2025 to 3.5 percent within four years — six years ahead of the NATO target. If realized, this would be Germany’s largest military budget since the height of the Cold War in 1975. By 2029, defense expenditures are expected to account for 26.7 percent of all federal government spending, estimated at 573.8 billion euros.

In March, the German parliament amended the Basic Law to exempt defense and infrastructure investments from constitutional debt limits. A recent report by the German Armed Forces warned that Russia now poses an “existential threat” to Germany and Europe. The report stated that Russia has deployed more troops near its western border and is restructuring its military command and industrial capacity to prepare for a potential large-scale conflict with NATO by the end of the decade.

Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, echoed the concern, saying Moscow may seek to test whether NATO’s collective defense mechanism will actually be invoked.

In response to NATO’s actions, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia is already spending 6.3 percent of its GDP on defense but plans to reduce that figure over the next three years. Putin criticized the West, asking rhetorically, “Who exactly are they preparing to defend against?” and accused NATO of heightening tensions.

Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, left, U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio, center, and Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya pose for a photograph before their gathering at NATO headquarters in Brussels in April. [YONHAP]

Japan, which ranks fourth globally in GDP, has found itself in a difficult position. While its economic scale is comparable to Germany’s, its defense spending remains relatively low. Under former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Japan announced a five-year defense buildup plan aimed at increasing spending to 2 percent of GDP — or 11 trillion yen ($76.5 billion) — by 2027. However, its current spending remains at 1.8 percent.

Recently, reports surfaced that Japan had canceled a scheduled “2+2” meeting with the United States — bringing together foreign and defense ministers — due to U.S. demands that Japan raise its defense spending to 3 or even 3.5 percent of GDP. Although Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi publicly denied the reports, the incident reflects the strain Tokyo is under.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba pushed back against the idea of rigid percentage targets. “Enhancing our defense capabilities is our sovereign responsibility,” he said, “but rather than aiming for a specific percentage from the outset, we must determine what is necessary and build accordingly.” Hayashi echoed that sentiment, stating, “What matters most is not the amount but the substance of our defense capabilities.”

Japan is also facing renewed demands from Washington to increase its host-nation support for U.S. troops. Under a 2022 agreement, Japan committed to spending 1.055 trillion yen over five years to support the U.S. military presence. For fiscal year 2025, its contribution is expected to be 227.4 billion yen. With the current agreement set to expire in March 2027, both governments must soon begin negotiations on a new deal.

Korea’s higher base but no exemption

Korea, home to roughly 28,500 U.S. troops, is not immune from Washington’s growing pressure. Wi Sung-lac, head of Korea’s National Security Office, recently confirmed that the United States is delivering similar defense budget expectations to its Indo-Pacific allies as it is to NATO members. “Such discussions are already underway at the working level,” he said.

A statement from Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stressed that decisions on defense spending would be based on a comprehensive review of both domestic and external security conditions as well as fiscal capacity.

Korea, the United States and Japan conduct a joint aerial exercise Tuesday involving a U.S. nuclear-capable B-52H bombers in an area where the air defense identification zones (ADIZ) between Korea and Japan, southeast of Jeju Island, overlap, on April 2, 2024, in a photo released by Seoul’s Defense Ministry on Wednesday. The latest trilateral aerial drill was in an apparent show of force against North Korea. [DEFENSE MINISTRY]

Among Washington’s close allies, Korea already maintains one of the highest defense-to-GDP ratios. In 2025, Korea’s military budget is expected to reach 61.6 trillion won, or 2.32 percent of GDP. To meet the 3.5 percent target by 2035, Korea would need to raise its defense budget by 5.5 to 6 percent annually — assuming an average economic growth rate of 2 percent. Given that Korea’s average defense spending growth rate during the 2020s has hovered around 4.65 percent, the challenge remains significant but less daunting than Japan’s.

Under former President Moon Jae-in’s administration, a strong push for defensive self-reliance led to defense budget increases of 7 to 8 percent annually between 2018 and 2020. A midterm defense plan approved in 2023 projected that with annual growth of 7 percent, Korea’s defense budget could exceed 100 trillion won by the early 2030s.

In October 2023, Korea and the United States reached an agreement to increase Seoul’s contribution to U.S. troop costs by 8.3 percent to 1.52 trillion won starting in 2026, with further increases tied to inflation through 2030. However, the Trump administration is expected to demand a renegotiation of the deal. During his first term, Trump demanded $8 billion from Japan and $10 billion from Korea in annual host-nation support — higher than the final agreed amounts.

As the United States redefines its global security expectations, its allies in Asia and Europe are being pushed to shoulder a larger share of the financial burden. Whether these countries can accommodate such demands without undermining their domestic stability remains an open question.

Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.