Grocery prices overheat as climate change hurts yields, with no relief in sight

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Grocery prices overheat as climate change hurts yields, with no relief in sight

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI


A shopper examines produce at a supermarket in Seoul on June 30. [NEWS1]

A shopper examines produce at a supermarket in Seoul on June 30. [NEWS1]

 
As Korea braces for record-breaking heat and a so-called dry monsoon this summer, climate change is driving up food prices around the world, with years of accumulated climate impacts reducing the yields of crops and seafood, pushing prices higher.
 
This phenomenon is known as "climate inflation." Studies show that if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced within the next decade, a 1-degree Celsius (1.8-degree Fahrenheit) increase in temperature could raise prices by more than 3 percentage points.
 

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Statistics Korea also cited climate as a factor in last month's rise in consumer prices. Radish prices jumped 54 percent year-on-year, and shredded squid rose 39.9 percent, with surging prices in seafood and livestock products contributing significantly to inflation.
 
“Radish and napa cabbage shipments declined due to frequent heavy rains and abnormal temperatures, causing prices to spike,” said Park Byung-seon, head of Statistics Korea’s Price Trends Division. “Seafood catches have fallen due to rising sea temperatures.”
 
This trend is not only applicable to Korea, but is happening globally. Food prices in Britain rose by 3.7 percent year-on-year last month — the highest since March of last year, according to the Financial Times on Friday.
 
“In the U.K., fruit and vegetable prices increased due to the hot, dry weather, reducing harvest yields,” said British Retail Consortium CEO Helen Dickinson. The country's national weather service said this spring was one of the warmest and sunniest on record.
 
“This has been a mixed blessing for farmers — early sun and heat in the spring boosted yields of some fresh produce such as strawberries and tomatoes, but a lack of rainfall has stressed arable crops such as wheat and barley,” the Financial Times reported.
 
People walk by a flyer stand with a reference to the Europe-wide ″true costs″ campaign week by the discount supermarket Penny, in which nine selected products are given the calculated ″real price″ as the sales price, under consideration of the environmental costs, in Berlin on Aug. 1, 2023. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

People walk by a flyer stand with a reference to the Europe-wide ″true costs″ campaign week by the discount supermarket Penny, in which nine selected products are given the calculated ″real price″ as the sales price, under consideration of the environmental costs, in Berlin on Aug. 1, 2023. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

 
Japan’s food prices are expected to rise significantly in July, according to Reuters. A survey by Teikoku Databank of 195 food companies found that the prices of 2,105 products would increase by an average of 15 percent this month.
 
The price hikes are attributed in part to climate change–driven increases in the cost of key products such as rice, chocolate, gum, potato chips and pasta sauce. Major food company Ajinomoto AGF plans to raise coffee prices by 25 to 55 percent — coffee beans being a prime example of a commodity whose price has surged due to extreme weather.
 
So how much do food prices rise with each 1-degree increase in temperature? A joint 2024 study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the European Central Bank estimated that a 1-degree rise in global temperatures by 2035 could push food prices up by 0.92 to 3.23 percentage points annually, and overall consumer prices by 0.32 to 1.18 percentage points.
 
The findings are based on an analysis of over 27,000 monthly inflation data points from 121 countries from 1996 to 2021. In 2022, Europe’s extreme summer heat pushed food prices up by as much as 0.93 percentage points.
 
Napa cabbage and radishes are displayed at a large mart in Seoul on July 3, as the consumer price index rose 2 percent on-year for the first half of 2025. [YONHAP]

Napa cabbage and radishes are displayed at a large mart in Seoul on July 3, as the consumer price index rose 2 percent on-year for the first half of 2025. [YONHAP]

 
“The impacts of a 1 [degree] increase in monthly temperature on the price level persist across the entire 12 months following the initial shock, causing a cumulative effect on food inflation of 0.17 percentage points over the following year,” the report noted.
 
A study by the Bank of Korea last year similarly found that if the temperature temporarily rises by 1 degree due to heat waves, agricultural prices would increase by 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points. If that shock lasts a year, agricultural prices could rise by 2 percent and overall inflation by 0.7 percent.
 
Climate inflation is occurring globally and accumulating over time. Southern Europe has seen olive oil prices soar by over 50 percent annually after two years of severe drought since 2022. Coffee and cocoa prices have surged due to extreme heat and drought in Brazil, Vietnam and West Africa.
 
Arabica bean prices have climbed 250 percent over the past five years. Heat waves in Korea, China, Japan and India last year drove up prices for vegetables, rice and seafood.
 
As food prices and the costs of eating out rise, office workers on their lunch breaks queue outside a discount cafe in Jung District, central Seoul, on July 2. [YONHAP]

As food prices and the costs of eating out rise, office workers on their lunch breaks queue outside a discount cafe in Jung District, central Seoul, on July 2. [YONHAP]

 
Maximilian Kotz, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute, told the JoongAng Ilbo via email that these climate shocks were so extreme and unprecedented that they severely reduced yields, which in turn caused price spikes.
 
If climate change is not curbed, food inflation will worsen, Kotz warned.
 
The institute projects that if climate change continues at its worst-case trajectory, inflation could rise by an additional 4 percentage points per year by 2060.
 
A public consensus that “climate change makes food more expensive” is needed so that governments can secure support for investing in renewable energy, Kotz argued. He also urged that governments end subsidies for oil and gas and actively support renewable industries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.


Translated from the JoongAng Ilbo using generative AI and edited by Korea JoongAng Daily staff.
BY PARK YU-MI [[email protected]]
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