Trump may have 'ended seven wars,' but Nobel odds remain low, say online betting sites

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Trump may have 'ended seven wars,' but Nobel odds remain low, say online betting sites

Published: 09 Oct. 2025, 18:38

LIM JEONG-WON
[email protected]

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a roundtable meeting in the State Dining Room at the White House in Washington on Oct. 8. [AP/YONHAP]

Although U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas have agreed to a peace deal, he has just a 6 percent chance of winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, according to online betting odds.

The odds slightly rose after Trump announced on Wednesday — two days before the prize was to be awarded — that Israel and Hamas had agreed on the first phase of what he called the “Gaza Peace Plan.”

“I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first phase of our Peace Plan,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Thursday. “This means that all of the hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a strong, durable and everlasting peace.”

Trump hinted at his own expectations for a Nobel Peace Prize in the same Truth Social post, writing, “Blessed are the peacemakers.”

The probability of Trump receiving the Nobel Peace Prize stood at 6 percent as of Thursday, according to Polymarket, a U.S.-based prediction market. His odds on the platform had previously peaked at 4.9 percent on Sunday before falling to 2.7 percent on Tuesday.

Smoke rises from Gaza, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas agreed on the first phase of a Gaza ceasefire, as seen from the Israeli side of the border with Gaza on Oct. 9. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

The group with the highest estimated chance of winning the prize is Emergency Response Rooms, a local activist network operating in war-torn Sudan, listed with a 28 percent chance. Doctors Without Borders followed with a 13 percent chance, and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) with a 7 percent chance.

On another site, Sweden’s online betting platform Betsson, Trump’s payout odds for winning the prize stood at 6 to 1. Syrian peace activist Abir Haj Ibrahim was listed at 4.5 to 1, the UN World Food Programme at 5 to 1 and Yulia Navalnaya — widow of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny, who died in prison under suspicious circumstances — also at 5 to 1. Lower odds indicate a higher probability of winning.

Trump has been openly vocal about his desire to receive the award. Since taking office for a second term, he has claimed credit for ending seven wars worldwide.

U.S. President Donald Trump listens to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a joint press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington on Sept. 29. [AFP/YONHAP]

At a military commanders’ meeting on Sept. 30, Trump remarked on his own chances, saying, “They'll give it to some guy that didn't do a damn thing,” adding, “We'll see what happens, but it would be a big insult to our country.”

Asked during a White House press event on Thursday whether he expects to win the Nobel, Trump said, “I have no idea, Marco [Rubio] would tell you we settled seven wars.”

“We're close to settling an eighth,” he said. “I think we'll end up settling the Russia situation. I don't think anybody in history has settled that many. But perhaps they'll find a reason not to give it to me.”

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY HONG JOO-HEE, LIM JEONG-WON [[email protected]]