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Experts believe U.S.-China APEC side meeting actually now more likely after tariff, rare earth standoffs

Published: 14 Oct. 2025, 14:18

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi jinping [YONHAP/AFP]

China is growing increasingly optimistic about a potential summit between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, following a recent cooling of tensions after both sides traded heavy-handed retaliatory measures, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported Tuesday.

Sentiment in Beijing is shifting toward support for a leaders' meeting, as Washington appears to be softening its posture following an unprecedentedly forceful response from the Chinese government, according to the SCMP.

With the current momentum, a bilateral summit is seen as highly likely to take place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit scheduled from Sept. 31 to Oct. 1 in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang.

Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, believes that if the next round of trade negotiations proceeds smoothly, then the likelihood of a Xi-Trump summit would increase significantly.

Wu also noted that recent pressure tactics from China appear to have made a tangible impact, prompting the Trump administration to adopt a more pragmatic approach. He added that the firm Chinese response could help stabilize both the trade talks and overall relations going forward.

Wang Yiwei, professor of international relations at Renmin University, said recent tensions between the two countries may help create the conditions necessary for a leaders’ meeting at APEC. He described this as part of a process in which confrontation leads to compromise.

Shi Yinhong, another international relations professor at Renmin University, said that China’s move to strengthen export controls on rare earth elements may have convinced the Trump administration that forcing Beijing into submission is no longer feasible.

Traditional Russian wooden Matryoshka dolls depicting China's President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump at a souvenir shop in St. Petersburg, Russia, Nov. 21, 2024. [AP/YONHAP]

Last Friday marked the end of the second tariff truce between the two countries. In the days leading up to it, the two sides continued tough negotiations without compromise. While some progress was made, including a tentative deal over the U.S. operations of TikTok, recent developments have seen both countries escalate with high-impact countermeasures.

The Trump administration announced a 100-percent surcharge on existing tariffs and new restrictions on exports of critical software components.

In response, China suspended imports of U.S. soybeans, a move targeting American farmers. The measure came on top of the Chinese government announcing tighter export controls on rare earth alloys last Thursday, a key resource in advanced manufacturing.

Despite strong pushback from Washington, experts noted that China’s near-monopoly over the global rare earth supply chain makes it difficult for the United States to mount a meaningful response.

China further ramped up pressure by blocking U.S. chipmaker Qualcomm’s acquisition of Israeli auto chip designer Autotalks and launching an antitrust investigation. It also began imposing a 400 yuan ($56) port service fee per metric ton on U.S.-related vessels.

The Shilla Seoul in Jung District, central Seoul [JOONGANG ILBO]

Additional export restrictions on high-end lithium-ion batteries and synthetic diamonds are set to take effect on Nov. 8.

Since China’s countermeasures intensified, Washington’s rhetoric has grown more restrained. Two days after issuing threats of new tariffs and export controls, Trump stated that the United States is maintaining good relations with China and that he has a strong personal rapport with Xi.

Stephen Olson, senior research fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, thinks that both countries are seeking leverage — Beijing wants access to advanced semiconductors, while Washington is pushing for rare earth export concessions. Olson added that Trump appears particularly focused on securing renewed purchases of American soybeans by China.

Olson warned that failure to hold a summit at APEC would likely trigger a major shock in global markets. However, if the two leaders meet and achieve a constructive outcome, it could mark a turning point in the U.S.-China relationship.

He also pointed out that as both sides escalate retaliatory measures, the situation becomes increasingly difficult to walk back. If current trade talks falter, another extension of the tariff truce may be required.

U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent delivers remarks during the Community Bank Conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington D.C., on Oct. 9, 2025. [EPA/YONHAP]

Within the United States, anticipation is also building around the possibility of a Xi-Trump meeting. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business that Trump may meet Xi during his planned visit to Korea.

Trump himself stated that the 100-percent tariffs would not take effect before Nov. 1 and left open the possibility of adjusting the approach based on progress in talks, suggesting an increased likelihood of renewed dialogue between the two sides.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY JEONG JAE-HONG [[email protected]]