K-Defense must seize Southeast Asia’s golden hour

Home > Opinion > Columns

K-Defense must seize Southeast Asia’s golden hour

Published: 15 Oct. 2025, 00:03

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Ko Young-kyung

The author is a research professor at Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies.

Southeast Asia’s defense industry is entering a period of rapid expansion. According to global forecasts, the regional market is projected to grow from $14 billion in 2024 to $25.4 billion by 2032, an annual increase of 6 to 8 percent. Three structural shifts are driving this growth.

The first is the deepening of multilayered security risks. Tensions in the South China Sea, border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia, cyberattacks and drone threats are pushing nations toward stronger self-defense capabilities. Singapore allocates 2.8 percent of its GDP to defense to maintain its regional superiority, while Vietnam and the Philippines have raised their budgets by double digits.

Operators move into position to prepare for the launch of a Cheongung-II surface-to-air missile during a live-fire interception drill held in the Yellow Sea region on Nov. 6, 2024. [JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF]

The second factor is the United States’ “strategic indifference.” While Southeast Asian exports to the U.S. rose amid the U.S.-China trade war, Washington’s diplomatic focus has faded. A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found that during the first 10 months of Donald Trump’s second term, the word “Southeast Asia” scarcely appeared in any official messages, speeches or White House materials. With trust in traditional security partners eroding, Asean members are seeking new options.

This shift is evident in the evolving diplomatic map. The Asean Summit in October will include not only President Trump but also Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The gathering signals a structural transformation: Asean is no longer a passive participant in a U.S.-led order, but an emerging convener of global powers.

The third factor is the void left by China and Russia. China faces political limits as a claimant in South China Sea disputes, restricting its ability to export strategic or high-risk weapons. Quality issues have also emerged. Malaysia ordered four Chinese littoral mission ships (LMS) but experienced frequent breakdowns in key components such as sensors and engines, as well as delays in spare parts and poor technology transfer. As a result, the remaining two vessels were ordered from a Turkish firm instead.

Russia, once Southeast Asia’s top arms supplier, has seen exports collapse under Western sanctions and parts shortages following the war in Ukraine. The threat of secondary sanctions from the U.S. has driven away traditional clients such as Vietnam.

The vacuum has quickly attracted others. France sealed a deal to supply Indonesia with 42 Rafale fighter jets. Turkey has signed export contracts for its KAAN fighter and Talay stealth drone. Japan, once limited to domestic defense production, is expanding through looser export restrictions and a new Official Security Assistance framework. It has provided the Philippines with coastal radar systems and patrol vessels, and Malaysia with patrol boats and maritime drones, while pursuing joint projects with Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand.

Southeast Asia’s strategy is clear: strengthen self-reliance through partnerships with multiple countries, not through dependence on one. These nations want to build industrial capacity through defense cooperation, not simply purchase expensive weapons. They prefer midrange systems that provide deterrence while allowing local firms to gain technical expertise.

Modern warfare demands integrated systems, not stand-alone weapons. The FA-50 fighter must exchange real-time data with ground radar networks, while the Cheongung-II air defense missile operates properly only when integrated with naval combat systems. Such cooperation establishes long-term partnerships lasting decades.

For maritime nations like Indonesia and the Philippines, such systems are vital. Surveillance networks for vast exclusive economic zones (EEZs) serve not only military but also public purposes, from anti-poaching to disaster response. Lacking the capacity for gradual upgrades, Asean states are turning to artificial intelligence to modernize efficiently at lower cost.

Korean defense firms are well positioned. With Western-level quality, competitive pricing and a strong commitment to technology transfer, Korea aligns with Asean’s needs. LIG Nex1 will supply Haegung shipborne missiles to the Malaysian Navy, while Hanwha Systems provides combat systems and vertical launchers. Beyond individual sales, Korea is pursuing integrated, co-development models that foster technological partnership.

Although Asean is not a “big-ticket” market like the Middle East or Poland, its steady double-digit defense budget growth and emphasis on local production create opportunities for stable, long-term cooperation.

Korea’s strategic positioning is therefore crucial. Asean’s goal is not to acquire instruments of war but to build peace infrastructure. Korea already enjoys trust from decades of participation in UN peacekeeping and humanitarian missions. By promoting its exports as “stability-building systems” rather than “weapons of deterrence,” Seoul can develop tailored partnerships — turning the Philippines into a hub for naval maintenance and Malaysia into an aircraft components base.

The Chuncheon FFG-II frigate launches Haegung ship-to-air missiles to shoot down an aerial target during live-fire drills held in the East Sea, in a photo provided by the South Korean Navy on May 13, 2024. [YONHAP]

A balanced export structure spanning Europe, the Middle East and Asean would diversify risks and secure enduring relationships across regions. Yet Seoul must also weigh the impact of arms exports on its national image. If Korea becomes seen merely as a weapons supplier, it risks undermining the creative and constructive image built through K-culture.

That is why branding matters. By emphasizing maritime safety, disaster response and anti-illegal fishing missions, Korea can project a public value — oriented vision. Framing K-defense as a contributor to regional stability and industrial growth, not as making Korea an arms merchant, will strengthen both economic interests and national reputation.

Now is the golden hour to advance the “K-Defense Peace System Strategy” — to help Asean nations defend peace, not wage war.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.