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Korea losing GDP per capita race to Taiwan, now and for years to come

Published: 20 Oct. 2025, 15:43 Updated: 20 Oct. 2025, 19:49

Containers stack up at Pyeongtaek Port in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi on Sept. 4. [YONHAP]

Korea’s GDP per capita is projected to fall behind Taiwan’s for the first time in over two decades this year, as the country drops three notches in the global rankings, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest forecast.

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, released last Wednesday, estimates Korea’s GDP per capita at $35,962 this year — a 0.8 percent decline from last year's $36,239. This drop is expected to push Korea down from 34th to 37th among 197 countries.

However, the IMF projects that Korea will reach the $40,000 mark in GDP per capita by 2028 — a year earlier than previously forecast — hitting $40,802. Despite this milestone, Korea’s ranking is expected to continue declining: 38th in 2026, 40th by 2028 and 41st by 2029.

In contrast, Taiwan is on a steep upward trajectory. Its GDP per capita is projected to rise 11.1 percent this year to $37,827, up from $34,060 in 2024. That would elevate Taiwan’s global ranking from 38th to 35th, surpassing Korea.

The gap is expected to widen next year, with Taiwan forecast to exceed $41,586 in GDP per capita — reaching the $40,000 threshold two years ahead of Korea. By 2030, Taiwan is expected to enter the $50,000 era with $50,252, while Korea is only projected to be at $44,262 then.

Analysts say Taiwan’s anticipated reversal of fortune is already becoming a reality. According to the Korea Center for International Finance, eight major global investment banks expect Taiwan’s real GDP growth to average 5.3 percent this year.

A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington is seen on Nov. 24, 2024. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Nomura, which offered the highest forecast at 6.2 percent, said Taiwan’s economy is accelerating faster in the third quarter than in the second. The Japanese investment bank revised its third-quarter GDP growth forecast for Taiwan from 3.0 percent year-on-year to 7.6 percent.

“While domestic consumption and investment in Taiwan are subdued, the country’s technology-driven manufacturing — particularly semiconductor production — continues to post strong growth,” Nomura said.

Meanwhile, the IMF projects Japan’s GDP per capita to reach $34,713 this year, a seven percent increase from 2024. Still, Japan is expected to remain stuck at 40th in the global rankings. By 2029, Japan is projected to surpass the $40,000 mark with $41,020, but its ranking will likely fall further to 42nd.

Liechtenstein is expected to top this year’s global GDP per capita ranking with $231,071, followed by Luxembourg with $146,818, Ireland with $129,132, Switzerland with $111,047, Iceland with $98,150, Singapore with $94,481, Norway with $91,884, the United States with $89,599, Denmark with $76,481 and Macau with $74,921.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY HAN YOUNG-HYE [[email protected]]