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U.S. tariff strategy wobbles as Trump reaches out to Brazil

Published: 22 Oct. 2025, 00:03

Cha Se-hyeon

The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.

Brazil, the leading power in Latin America, has proven far from easy to handle. U.S. President Donald Trump, who had imposed 50 percent tariffs on Brazil along with India for refusing to stop importing Russian oil, is now extending an olive branch to Brasilia. The gesture comes about three months after Trump condemned the prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro — often dubbed the Trump of Brazil — as a “witch hunt.”

The U.S. president's overture reflects the ripple effects of his trade war with China. After Beijing halted imports of U.S. soybeans, it sharply increased purchases from Brazil. The shift highlights Brazil’s longstanding diplomatic principle of maintaining “autonomy through distance,” avoiding excessive dependence on any great power.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, shakes hands with Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva after a signing ceremony and a joint press conference, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 13. [AFP/YONHAP]

Recently, Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira met U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington to discuss the possibility of a summit between the two leaders. “We agreed to define the negotiation agenda in a productive atmosphere,” Vieira said, adding that the meeting would take place “soon.”

Earlier this month, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva spoke with Trump by phone. After the call, Lula said, “I’m 80 years old, and President Trump will be 80 in eight months, so I suggested we talk comfortably on a first-name basis.” Referring to their brief encounter at the United Nations, he added, “We connected in just 29 seconds.” His lighthearted remark, echoing Trump’s own social media post that he “felt great chemistry,” underscored Lula’s confidence despite U.S. tariffs.

Soybeans are harvested on the Warpup Farm in Warren, Indiana, on Sept. 17. [AP/YONHAP]

On Saturday, Lula took a firmer tone at a public event, declaring, “I will not allow any foreign leader to speak arrogantly about Brazil. This is about human dignity and national character.”

Brazil’s composure stems from both economic and geopolitical strength. Over the past 15 years, its trade deficit with the United States has exceeded 400 billion reais ($74.4 billion). Under a newly enacted reciprocity law, Brazil has begun procedures to retaliate against U.S. tariffs — an action that could end up hurting Washington more than Brasilia.

Brazil’s exports to the United States account for about 12 percent of its total, compared to Mexico’s 80 percent dependence on the U.S. market. As a popular saying goes, “When the United States sneezes, Mexico catches pneumonia, but Brazil only gets a mild cold.” Tariffs on Brazilian coffee, sugar, orange juice or steel would drive up consumer prices in the United States, hitting U.S. households directly.

Politically, with 210 million people, Brazil has long acted as South America’s regional leader. It spearheads the Mercosur trade bloc, is a founding member of BRICS and plays an active role in cooperation among Global South countries.

Trump’s latest conciliatory tone came after China restricted exports of rare-earth elements and halted all soybean imports from the United States. Soybeans are vital as feed for China’s pork industry. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, China purchased about one-third of all U.S. soybean production last year, worth $12.6 billion.

China’s General Administration of Customs reported that it gradually reduced soybean imports from the United States earlier this year and completely stopped purchases last month. With Chinese demand gone, soybean prices have fallen from $13 to about $10 per bushel during the autumn harvest season. China has replaced the lost supply with imports from Brazil and Argentina. Beijing's state-run Global Times, citing Brazil’s grain exporters association, said that more than 79 percent of China’s soybean imports this year have come from Brazil. Beijing’s reliance on Brazilian soybeans has risen from 14 percent in 2016 to 22 percent last year.

As this unfolded, Trump began to feel the pressure. With next year’s midterm elections approaching, anxiety grew over losing support from farmers in key swing states. Korea's national security adviser, Wi Sung-lac, hinted at Washington’s concern, saying, “The only thing we heard from the U.S. side regarding agriculture was soybeans,” suggesting an appeal for purchases.

Trump himself wrote on social media, “I’ll be meeting with President Xi, of China, in four weeks, and Soybeans will be a major topic of discussion,” adding, “MAKE SOYBEANS, AND OTHER ROW CROPS, GREAT AGAIN!” The U.S. Democratic Party, seizing on rural discontent, produced campaign ads accusing Trump’s tariff war of hurting farmers in Iowa, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration offered Argentina — led by “the Trump of South America,” President Javier Milei — a $40 billion rescue package, including a $20 billion currency-swap arrangement. Yet Argentina angered U.S. farm states by exporting seven million tons of soybeans to China. Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa criticized the move, asking, “Why are we bailing out Argentina while letting them take away our biggest soybean market?”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, center, and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa attend the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on July 6. [EPA/YONHAP]

Hussein Kalout, a senior fellow at Brazil’s Center for International Relations, argued in a recent Foreign Affairs essay that Trump’s punitive tariffs were seen as an attempt to weaken Lula’s government, eroding Washington’s credibility instead. “The high tariffs are rallying South American nations around Brazil,” he wrote, “and expanding China’s influence in the region.”

Brazil’s steady confidence, backed by economic resilience and diplomatic pragmatism, has turned what began as a tariff confrontation into a test of global realignment. For the United States, the fallout now reaches deep into its own farm belt.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.