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Chip 'supercycle' projected to extend double-digit growth to third year in 2026

Published: 24 Oct. 2025, 15:30 Updated: 24 Oct. 2025, 16:53

[JOONGANG ILBO]

The global chip market is predicted to post double-digit growth for a third consecutive year in 2026 — a rare occurrence in the industry, as anticipation grows for a semiconductor “supercycle.”

While some analysts have raised concerns about a potential bubble driven by AI, experts say the intense competition over AI dominance will keep momentum going for the foreseeable future.

At a key session of SEDEX 2025 — a Semiconductor Exhibition at Coex in Gangnam District, southern Seoul — held on Thursday, industry analysts gathered for a market outlook seminar focused on trends in the memory and foundry sectors, as well as shifting dynamics in U.S.-China semiconductor relations.

Speakers included Noh Geun-chang, head of a research center at Hyundai Motor Securities; Kim Hyok-jung, associate research fellow at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy; Jeon Byung-seo, director of the China Finance and Economy Research Institute; and Lee Seung-woo, head of research at Eugene Investment & Securities.

The speakers discussed the global semiconductor market outlook, focusing on trends in the memory and foundry markets and the changing landscape of the U.S. and China semiconductor industries.

Lee predicted that the global chip industry is entering what he called a three-year “ultra supercycle” starting this year.

The global chip market reached $630 billion in 2024, up 19.6 percent from the previous year. Lee projects the market will grow 22.2 percent to $770 billion this year, and 18.4 percent to $910 billion in 2026.

Lee Seung-woo, head of research at Eugene Investment & Securities, delivers a keynote speech at a session of SEDEX 2025, a semiconductor exhibition held at Coex in Gangnam District, southern Seoul, on Oct. 23. [YI WOO-LIM]

“If that happens, it will mark the first time since 1993 to 1995 that the industry has achieved double-digit growth for three consecutive years,” Lee said. “That kind of consistency is extremely rare.”

He noted that growth will likely be concentrated in memory and logic chips, especially those used in data centers — including high bandwidth memory (HBM), which is critical for AI processing.

While acknowledging that some of OpenAI’s investment plans appear overly ambitious, Lee emphasized that “cloud-centered growth in the chip market will continue, and demand for HBM will remain strong.”

“Because U.S. firms are deeply involved in the memory sector, it’s unlikely that the Donald Trump administration would impose harsh sanctions there,” Lee said. “However, Washington’s approach to chips produced in China remains uncertain.”

A HBM4 memory chip is on display at SK hynix's booth at SEDEX 2025, a semiconductor exhibition held in Coex in Gangnam, southern Seoul, on Oct. 22. [NEWS1]

Noh of Hyundai Motor Securities projected that the HBM market will exceed $50 billion next year.

“The previous forecast for 2026 was $47 billion excluding OpenAI,” Noh said. “But with OpenAI expected to launch its own accelerator in the second half of next year, the figure is likely to go even higher.”

OpenAI recently announced plans to develop its own AI chip and system in partnership with Broadcom — a move that challenges Nvidia’s dominance in the AI accelerator market. This is seen as a major opportunity for Korean memory makers like Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which supply HBM chips for AI accelerators.

“Traditional cloud providers and OpenAI are now racing to build more data centers,” Noh said. “It’s a meaningful investment, and I don’t see the situation changing anytime soon. The power struggle over AI infrastructure will likely continue for at least the next two to three years.”

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY YI WOO-LIM [[email protected]]