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U.S. expert not ruling out possible change in USFK force posture in next 3 years

Published: 21 Nov. 2025, 09:59

This photo, taken on Sept. 19, shows Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), speaking during a press meeting in Seoul. [YONHAP]

A U.S. expert said Thursday that he is not ruling out the possibility of a change in the U.S. force posture in South Korea in the next three years, amid speculation that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration could seek a troop reduction in an adjustment to better counter Chinese threats.

Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), made the remarks during a podcast on a recently released joint fact sheet on security and trade agreements between Seoul and Washington, as well as a joint communiqué from the allies' defense ministerial talks.

The communiqué from the Security Consultative Meeting earlier this month has reinforced speculation about the possibility of a troop drawdown in Korea, as it omitted what had been a boilerplate phrase underlining the U.S.' commitment to maintaining the "current" force level of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK).

"I would not rule that out [...] some change in the force posture on the (Korean) Peninsula in the next three years," he said.

The talk of a possible USFK troop cut has emerged as Seoul and Washington seek to "modernize" the bilateral alliance in a move expected to broaden the operational scope of USFK beyond the Korean Peninsula in the face of China's growing assertiveness.

Observers have anticipated that to help counter Chinese threats, the U.S. military could strengthen Air Force and Navy components of USFK, and reduce its Army portion, given that naval and aerial assets might play a central role in China-related contingencies.

Cha echoed that view.

"[Under the modernization] you don't need that many ground troops on the peninsula," he said.

The Army accounts for the largest portion of USFK, followed by the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps, as the current USFK force structure has been entrenched with a primary focus on countering evolving North Korean threats rather than challenges beyond the Korean shores.

Touching on Trump's approval for Seoul's push to secure nuclear-armed submarines, Cha said that China may react with "economic coercion" down the road. The U.S. approval has given rise to speculation that Washington might try to leverage South Korean submarines, once built, to keep China in check.

"I am 100 percent certain that we will see Chinese economic coercion against South Korea," he said, noting that Beijing previously sanctioned five U.S.-linked subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean — a major South Korean shipbuilder that has engaged in shipbuilding cooperation with America.

"I am 100 percent certain that once the details of the submarine deal [..]. once they decide what they are going to do, they will target something on Korea to try to push them off of this."

Commenting on diplomacy with North Korea, Cha said that Trump may want to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un next year, when Trump is expected to visit China for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

He noted that Trump's objective for possible engagement with Kim would be to declare peace and formally end the 1950-53 Korean War, but "how he gets there is completely unpredictable."

During the same podcast, Anthony Ruggiero, a former senior director for counterproliferation and biodefense at the U.S. National Security Council, pointed out the need for South Korea to make a public statement vowing not to develop nuclear weapons, as it seeks to acquire strategic submarines and secure uranium enrichment and spent nuclear fuel recycling capabilities.

"That's going to require more of a forward-leaning, public statement about not developing nuclear weapons and subjecting to more stringent inspections to ensure that that's not happening," he said.

He anticipated that China might be "upset" about Seoul's drive to secure nuclear submarines, and the enrichment and recycling capabilities, but stressed that "the Chinese only have themselves to blame for this."

"The North Korean nuclear weapons program exists and continues, and is robust primarily because of China's inability, and I would go so far as to say unwillingness to address the North Korean nuclear program," he said. "This is a direct consequence of that."

Yonhap