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Milder than usual winter temperatures expected

Published: 24 Nov. 2025, 14:40 Updated: 24 Nov. 2025, 19:16

Skiers are seen at Mona Yongpyeong ski resort in Pyeongchang, Gangwon on Nov. 21. [YONHAP]

Temperatures in Korea this winter are expected to be similar to or higher than average, making for a relatively mild and less cold season.

There is a 50 percent probability that temperatures in December will be in the average range of 0.5 to 1.7 degrees Celsius (32.9 to 35 degrees Fahrenheit) according to the Korea Meteorological Administration’s (KMA) three-month forecast released Monday. The likelihood of above-average temperatures is 30 percent, and below-average temperatures 20 percent.

For January next year, which typically averages between minus 1.5 and minus 0.3 degrees Celsius, the chance of average temperatures is also 50 percent, and the probability of warmer-than-average temperatures is 30 percent.

In February, where the average ranges from 0.6 to 1.8 degrees Celsius, the odds are evenly split at 40 percent each for average and above-average conditions.

A key reason behind the milder forecast is the potential strengthening of anticyclonic circulation systems near the Korean Peninsula.

Elevated sea surface temperatures near Scandinavia this fall have increased heat transfer from the Northwest Pacific Ocean to the atmosphere, heightening the likelihood that surrounding pressure systems will tilt toward warmer conditions.

A schematic diagram of sea surface temperatures around the Scandinavian Peninsula and winter temperatures in Korea [KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION]

Lower-than-average snow cover in the Tibetan Plateau is also a factor. Less snow leads to more heat being transferred from the ground to the atmosphere, strengthening the high-pressure system over Tibet, which can extend into East Asia and raise winter temperatures.
This trend is further compounded by global warming. Over the past 53 years, Korea’s average temperatures have risen by 0.2 degrees in December, 1.6 degrees in January and 2.1 degrees in February.

Climate forecast models from 11 national meteorological and research agencies — including those in Korea and the Britain — also project a 53 to 59 percent probability that temperatures from December through February will be higher than average.

However, forecasters warn that variables remain. If easterly winds strengthen in the upper equatorial stratosphere, convection in tropical regions may intensify, lowering global temperatures. This could weaken the jet stream and allow cold Arctic air to flow into Korea, driving down local temperatures.

$A person dressed in a coat and muffler is seen on a street in Gwangju on Nov. 19. [YONHAP] \$

A person dressed in a coat and muffler is seen on a street in Gwangju on Nov. 19. [YONHAP] \

Mild La Niña conditions, extensive snow cover in eastern Eurasia, and reduced Arctic sea ice are also expected to increase temperature volatility in December and January.

As for precipitation, the KMA forecasts a 40 percent chance of below-average rainfall in December, a 40 percent chance of average levels and a 20 percent chance of above-average levels. For January, the chance of average precipitation is 50 percent, while for February, the probability is 40 percent each for average or above-average levels.

The anticipated December precipitation deficit is attributed to the inflow of cold, dry air caused by low Arctic sea ice levels. Conversely, the increased likelihood of precipitation in February is linked to easterly winds in the equatorial stratosphere and atmospheric wave propagation from Scandinavia.

The KMA concluded that the combined outlook suggests a low probability of drought this winter.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY JEONG JAE-HONG [[email protected]]