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Korean first-grade students set to drop below 300,000 this year

Published: 13 Jan. 2026, 12:05 Updated: 13 Jan. 2026, 16:23

Soon-to-be first graders at an elementary school in Busan walk in the school's hallway on Jan. 6. [NEWS1]

The number of first-grade students at Korean elementary schools is set to drop below 300,000 for the first time in 2026, driven by one of the world’s lowest birthrates, government data showed.

The number of first graders nationwide is expected to amount to 298,178 this year, according to revised enrollment projections released by the Ministry of Education on Thursday.

The projections draw on basic education statistics compiled by the Korean Educational Development Institute, long-term population forecasts from the Ministry of Data and Statistics and resident registration data from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety.

The education ministry had previously expected first-grade enrollment to fall below the 300,000 mark in 2027. It moved the timeline forward by a year after revising its estimates to reflect changes in the resident population structure and actual school enrollment rates.

The decline is expected to accelerate further. The number of first graders is projected to fall to 277,674 in 2027 and continue dropping to 262,309 in 2028, 247,591 in 2029, 232,268 in 2030 and 220,481 by 2031.

The fall in first-grade enrollment extends a long-running trend. In 2000, the number of first graders dropped below 700,000 for the first time, reaching 699,032. It fell sharply to 468,233 in 2009 and remained in the 400,000 range for several years before declining further to 324,040 last year.

A parent and soon-to-be first graders look at a classroom in an elementary school in Busan on Jan. 6. [YONHAP]

Overall student numbers across elementary, middle and high schools are also falling quickly. Total enrollment stood at about 5.02 million last year but is expected to decline to 4.84 million this year, dropping below the 5 million threshold.

By 2031, the total is projected to drop to about 3.81 million, falling below 4 million.

The rapid contraction of the school-age population is reshaping the education system in Korea. Schools in rural areas and smaller regional cities face mounting pressure as student numbers dwindle, leading to more school mergers and closures. Regional universities are also struggling to secure enough freshmen as demographic pressures intensify.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
BY KO SEUNG-PYO [[email protected]]