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Korea's 2026 growth outlook average among global IBs raised to 2.1%

Published: 05 Feb. 2026, 17:38

SK hynix headquarters in Icheon, Gyeonggi, on Jan. 29 [YONHAP]

Major global investment banks (IBs) have upgraded their forecasts for Korea's economic growth this year, citing an upcycle of the global semiconductor industry, a report by a financial organization said Thursday.

The average forecast for economic growth of Asia's fourth-largest economy by eight major global IBs stood at 2.1 percent as of end-January, up 0.1 percentage point from their median outlook published a month earlier, according to the report by the Korea Center for International Finance.

It is more positive than the Bank of Korea (BOK)'s projection of 1.8 percent and the Seoul government's forecast of 2 percent.

Of the IBs, Citi raised its forecast to 2.4 percent from 2.2 percent, while UBS increased its projection to 2.2 percent from 2 percent.

Citi has expected the growth rate of semiconductor exports to more than double to 54 percent in 2026 from last year's 22 percent.

Nomura maintained its forecast at 2.3 percent, while Barclays and Bank of America kept their projections unchanged at 2.1 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. JP Morgan also left its outlook unchanged at 2 percent, and HSBC at 1.8 percent.

Goldman Sachs, however, lowered its forecast to 1.8 percent from 1.9 percent.

Expectations remain high that the global semiconductor cycle will stay stronger and more resilient than previously anticipated, though some institutions have warned of headwinds facing non-tech industries amid lingering risks from the United States' aggressive tariff policies.

Yonhap