Roh lagging in latest voter poll

Lee Hoi-chang, the presidential candidate of the Grand National Party and Chung Mong-joon, an independent candidate, would be in a tight race if the election were held today, according to a JoongAng Ilbo survey. Mr. Lee drew 33-percent support from a sampling of 1,017 people surveyed on Friday and Saturday. Mr. Chung was supported by 32 percent of the sample. Mr. Lee's lead was narrower than the poll's margin of error of 3 percent.

In a similar JoongAng Ilbo poll conducted last month, Mr. Lee also lead Mr. Chung by a narrow margin.

Roh Moo-hyun, the candidate of the Millennium Democratic Party, won 19 percent support, followed by Kwon Young-ghil of the Democratic Labor Party at 2 percent and Lee Han-dong, an independent lawmaker and former prime minister, with 1 percent.

The survey, however, showed that Mr. Chung would lead Mr. Lee in a hypothetical two-way race. If Mr. Roh were not in the race and Mr. Chung were backed by a coalition of disaffected Millennium Democrats and other political figures, he would get 43 percent of the votes to Mr. Lee's 36 percent. In a similar hypothetical question asked last month, Mr. Chung led Mr. Lee by a margin of less than one percent.

The survey also found that Mr. Lee would have a better chance of winning the presidency if Mr. Roh was the candidate of a coalition of the MDP and other parties rather than Mr. Chung. In such a hypothetical two-way race, Mr. Lee would win 42 percent of the vote and Mr. Roh 31 percent.

Political observers said that the recent guerrilla warfare at the National Assembly has turned more voters toward Mr. Chung. According to the polls, voters over age 40 tended to support Mr. Lee, while voters in their 20s and 30s supported Mr. Chung.

But Mr. Chung's support base appears to be shakier than that of the other two major candidates. Three-quarters of those polled said they have consistently favored Mr. Lee or Mr. Roh, but only 48 percent of Mr. Chung's supporters said they had been for Mr. Chung all the way. Nearly half those polled said they have no party affiliation.

by Ahn Boo-keun