[Outlook]A change in attitude

The conclusion of the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program, which ended last Friday in Beijing, may seem pessimistic at first sight. The six parties failed to agree on a final deadline for the two-step dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear program, including dismantlement of its nuclear facilities and declaration of all its nuclear programs. Moreover, the North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Gye-gwan, stated on his departure from the Beijing Airport that North Korea would dismantle its nuclear facilities in Yongbyon only if it were given light-water reactors. Light-water reactors are an alternative that the United States would have a hard time reaching a national consensus on before North Korea wins a high level of credibility. Yet, Christopher Hill, the top U.S. envoy, commented that this round of talks was the best ever.
The reason for such optimism is that during these talks, not only did we witness a change of attitude from North Korea on the declaration and dismantlement of its nuclear program, but there was also a clear shift in the United States’ policy toward Pyongyang. Never has the U.S. seemed more determined to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and open peace talks. Moreover, with the hard-core Bush supporters in Washington bogged down by the stalemate in Iraq, the North Korea policy is currently being led by those more willing to negotiate. This means that a concrete goal and strategy for a solution to the North Korean nuclear situation could actually be found and implemented according to a planned scenario. In actuality, the United States’ repeated insistence that anything, including the normalization of its relations with Pyongyang, could be possible once North Korea gets rid of its nuclear program, seems to hold more substance now than at any other time.
Moreover, the offers that the U.S. is making could be of great interest to North Korea and thus provide a basis for compromise. During talks with his North Korean counterpart, Hill used the term “enriched uranium,” rather than “highly enriched uranium,” while emphasizing the need for North Korea’s full declaration of its nuclear program. This shows the U.S. government’s willingness to compromise on what had become the biggest obstacle in negotiations. Highly enriched uranium is used for nuclear fuel and weapons while enriched uranium is used for other purposes, such as electricity. Until now, Pyongyang has denied the existence of highly enriched uranium in North Korea. By delivering the message that it is very important to candidly acknowledge that enriched uranium had been used for other purposes, the United States is hoping to win North Korea’s cooperation. North Korea, in turn, has been quite responsive to the United States’ moves, compared to the past. Kim reportedly has said that Pyongyang will honestly declare all there is to declare. The vice minister’s words seem to indicate that North Korea, too, understands that its declaration on its uranium enrichment program is directly linked with the United States’ willingness to trust Pyongyang and that without solving this issue, there can be no progress in the talks.
The talks between the foreign ministers of the six nations are also being pursued enthusiastically by the United States. The talks are expected to take place in September and they would provide a natural opportunity for the ministers of North Korea and the United States to meet and hold bilateral talks as well. During these talks, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice would reaffirm the U.S. government’s offer to guarantee the security of North Korea’s regime, to take it off the list of rogue nations and to offer economic incentives according to how faithfully North Korea follows through with the dismantlement of its nuclear program.
If all notifications and measures of disablement concerning the nuclear program are implemented as scheduled afterwards, we could even expect the dawning of peace talks between the two Koreas, along with the United States and China. As is already known, the United States is hoping that North Korea completes the two-stage dismantlement of its nuclear program within the year, following through on its duty of notification and disablement of nuclear facilities. The United States has established this dismantlement as a sort of “midpoint” ― the final destination being the complete abolition of all nuclear programs and the normalization of U.S-North Korea relations. It is also interesting to note that instead of insisting on the final goal of complete abolition, the United States is instead first focusing on achieving a more realistic short-term goal. It is still too early to assume that a second Geneva Agreement will be reached. However, it seems clear that opportunity and challenge are knocking at South Korea’s door.

*The writer is a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies of Kyungnam University. Translation by the JoongAng Daily staff.

by Lim Eul-chul