Park regains a slight lead over Ahn, poll reports

The spectacular ascent of Ahn Cheol-soo, a doctor-turned software mogul, over Korea’s political landscape has shown a sign of sagging, at least for now, with a new JoongAng Ilbo poll forecasting that Park Geun-hye would edge him out by 0.3 percentage points in a two-way competition for the next presidency.

In two polls conducted by local research groups Tuesday, the day Ahn decided not to run for Seoul Mayor, Ahn led the former Grand National Party chairwoman by 2.6 percentage points and 1.9 percentage points respectively, the first time Park had been knocked out of her frontrunner status for the presidential race since 2008.

But political analysts said things could change after the Chuseok holiday, during which the public may share their views with their families and clarify their political opinions.

The JoongAng Ilbo conducted a simulated presidential election poll on 1,000 adults across the country on Thursday, in which Park garnered the backing of 46.6 percent of the respondents, compared with 46.3 percent for Ahn, on the assumption that the election was a two-way race. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

In a hypothetical competition among three candidates including opposition Democratic Party chairman Sohn Hak-kyu, Park earned 43.6 percent of the votes as opposed to Ahn’s 38.3 percent and Sohn’s 13.9 percent.

Park further extended her lead when many more candidates were put into consideration. In an open-to-all competition, the daughter of former President Park Chung Hee took 32.8 percent; followed by Ahn at 22.1 percent; Moon Jae-in, top aide of former President Roh Moo-hyun, at 7.7 percent; Sohn at 5.1 percent; Chung Mong-joon, a business mogul who served as former GNP chairman, at 3.9 percent; and Kim Moon-soo, Gyeonggi Govenor, at 3.2 percent.

The poll showed that Park earned a lot of support from people in their 50s and 60s, or those living in Chungcheong and Gyeongsang provinces, traditional turf for the ruling conservative party, plus self-employed or blue-collar workers.

Ahn, the founder of Ahn Lab, the nation’s leading antivirus software developer, and now Seoul National University science and technology professor, was favored by those in their 20s and 30s, or those living in Seoul and Jeolla provinces or white-collar workers and students.

The odds of Park winning the next presidential election was still 44.68 percent, the poll showed, although that was a drop of 3.45 percentage points from January.

The Chuseok holiday has played a role in presidential politics in the past. After she was a front-runner in the previous GNP primary, Park lost her lead to Lee Myung-bak after Chuseok in September 2006.

Chung Mong-joon, owner of Hyundai Heavy Industries, also led in the presidential race after the 2002 Chuseok holiday, moving past former GNP chairman Lee Hoi-chang and Roh Moo-hyun, although Roh ultimately won the election.

Kim Mi-hyeon, head researcher at DSR Company, a research firm, speculated that Chuseok could prove another bad turning point for Park because of economic problems facing the country, which could lead the public to spurn the ruling party.

“Long-drawn economic suffering by the working class, buffeted by high inflation, which is pinching the pocketbooks of Chuseok shoppers, and high youth unemployment, could highlight the economy as the biggest issue this Chuseok, like in 2006,” Kim said.

By Shin Chang-woon, Moon Gwang-lip [joe@joongang.co.kr]

한글 관련 기사 [중앙일보]

박근혜 46.6%…안철수 46.3% 추석 나흘 연휴 이후 민심이 분수령

중앙일보 가상대결 여론조사

박근혜 전 한나라당 대표와 안철수 서울대 융합과학기술대학원장이 차기 대통령 선거에서 맞대결할 경우 0.3%포인트 차의 초박빙 승부가 펼쳐지는 것으로 조사됐다. 중앙일보 조사연구팀이 8일 전국의 성인남녀 1000명을 대상으로 실시한 여론조사에서 한나라당 후보로 박 전 대표, 야권 통합 후보로 안 원장이 출마할 경우 두 사람의 지지율은 박 전 대표 46.6%, 안 원장 46.3%로 나타나 우열을 가리기 어려웠다.

　야권 통합이 이뤄지지 않고 박 전 대표(한나라당)와 손학규 대표(민주당), 안 원장(무소속)이 3자 대결을 펼칠 경우엔 박 전 대표(43.6%)가 안 원장(38.3%)을 다소 앞서는 것으로 나타났다. 손 대표는 13.9%를 기록했다.

　대선 예비후보군(群) 전체를 대상으로 한 지지율 조사에선 박 전 대표가 32.8%, 안 원장은 22.1%로 2위로 떠올랐다. 대선 예비후보 여론조사에서 2위 주자가 20%를 돌파한 것은 안 원장이 처음이다. 다음은 문재인 노무현재단 이사장(7.7%), 손 대표(5.1%), 정몽준 전 한나라당 대표(3.9%), 김문수 경기지사(3.2%), 정동영 민주당 최고위원(3.2%), 이회창 자유선진당 전 대표(2.4%) 순이었다.

　박 전 대표 는 50대와 60대, 충청과 영남권, 자영업과 블루칼라 계층에서, 안 원장은 20대와 30대, 서울과 호남권, 화이트칼라와 대학생 계층에서 우세를 보였다.

　박 전 대표가 대통령에 당선될 가능성을 점치는 답변은 지난 1월에 비해 다소 낮아졌다. “박 전 대표가 대통령에 당선될 확률이 얼마나 되는지 10% 단위로 말해 달라”는 질문에 1월엔 48.1%였으나 이번엔 44.6%였다.

　이번 조사의 표본은 성·연령·지역별 인구비례에 따른 할당추출법으로 선정했고, 전화번호부 비등재가구까지 포함하기 위해 RDD(Random Digit Dialing·임의번호 걸기) 방식을 이용해 전화로 면접했다. 최대 허용 오차범위는 95% 신뢰수준에서 ±3.1%포인트, 응답률은 18.6%다.