Strange activity around North's experimental sub

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Strange activity around North's experimental sub

A satellite image of Sinpo South Shipyard in North Korea's South Hamgyong Province shows the new location of the 8.24 Yongung experimental ballistic missile submarine. [BEYOND PARALLEL]

A satellite image of Sinpo South Shipyard in North Korea's South Hamgyong Province shows the new location of the 8.24 Yongung experimental ballistic missile submarine. [BEYOND PARALLEL]

 
Satellite images of Sinpo South Shipyard in North Korea’s South Hamgyong Province shows unusual activity around an experimental ballistic missile submarine, raising concerns that the regime could be preparing a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test, a U.S.-based think tank said Wednesday.
 
According to a report released by Beyond Parallel, a North Korea monitoring project run by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a satellite image taken on March 22 shows “unusual movement of the 8.24 Yongung (August 24th Hero) experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA) within the secure boat basin” at the shipyard, which serves as the North’s hub for naval and especially submarine activity.
 
The report noted that a floating dry dock, usually berthed on the pier 300 meters south of the submarine construction halls, was moved parallel to the launch slips of a larger construction hall between February 16 and February 24, and then moved back to its previous position.
 
While acknowledging that the reason for the changes remains unknown, the report’s author said the submarine was “likely” moved because of “ongoing modifications, continued repair work, preparations for an upcoming submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test, a component of a strategic deception plan, or a combination of these and other reasons.”
 
North Korea last claimed to have conducted an SLBM test last Oct. 19 in waters near Sinpo. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported the test was conducted from its 8.24 Yongung submarine, which the regime claimed to have used to test an older SLBM model in 2016.    
 
The North began testing SLBMs in 2015. Successfully launching a ballistic missile from a moving submarine would indicate that Pyongyang is closer to being able to deliver nuclear warheads by SLBMS, which experts consider a “game changer,” as it is a stealthier method than land-based ballistic missiles, and would pose a new threat to the United States and its allies.  
 
South Korea test-fired an indigenously designed SLBM from a 3,000-ton submarine in September, becoming the seventh country to possess proven SLBM capabilities.  
 
On top of possible preparations for an SLBM test, the North also appears to be gearing up for a major military parade in the capital of Pyongyang, according to satellite imagery analysis by Voice of America (VOA).
 
Based on satellite photos captured on Tuesday by Planet Labs, VOA said in a Thursday report that a red-colored patch filled approximately one-seventh of Kim Il Sung Square in downtown Pyongyang in the photos, suggesting the regime had enlisted residents and red props to rehearse for a military parade in the same area.
 
The observations follow a March 21 image of a large dark-colored area at Kim Il Sung Square, which analysts believe to have been a crowd of people.
 
Signs of a full-fledged rehearsal gathering were also observed at Mirim Airfield, where a satellite image Tuesday showed 26 rectangles believed to be processions made up of vehicles and large-scale troop units.  
 
U.S. and South Korean military authorities have been closely following potential parade-related movements since they caught preparations at Mirim Airfield. The military parade is likely to be held on April 15, the 110th anniversary of the birthday of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung, considered the biggest holiday in the country.  
 

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
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