Next wave of pandemic may have two peaks

Medical workers help people line up for virus tests at a screening center in Songpa District, southern Seoul, on Tuesday. [NEWS1]

New Covid-19 cases doubled again Tuesday compared to a week earlier, topping 70,000.

The country reported 73,582 new Covid-19 cases on Tuesday, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). New infections surpassed 70,000 for the first time in 83 days since April 27’s 76,765 cases, when the Omicron wave was subsiding.

Daily Covid-19 infections have been doubling compared to a week earlier since July 4, fueled by the spread of BA.5, a new Omicron subvariant.

Tuesday’s figure was 1.97 times the count one week ago and 4.05 times the count two weeks ago.

BA.5 accounted for 47.2 percent of domestic cases from July 10 to 16, up from last week's 23.7 percent, the KDCA announced Tuesday. Given its current speed, the more-transmissible Omicron subvariant is likely to become dominant throughout Korea within this week.

“As for imported cases, it already passed 50 percent [to reach 62.9 percent],” said Lim Sook-young, director of the Infectious Disease Crisis Response Bureau at the Central Disease Control Headquarters during Tuesday’s press briefing.

"The number of infections is continuing to increase, and we believe we are in a [sixth] wave of the pandemic," Lim added.

On top of BA.5, the BA.2.75 or Centaurus variant, which appears to spread even faster and evade vaccine-acquired immunity better than BA.5, has been detected in Korea.

That subvariant, which was discovered in India in late May, is spreading fast in more than 10 countries in Europe and the United States. In India, BA.2.75 caused 7.9 percent of cases on June 20, which increased to 51.35 percent in a single week.

Korea first confirmed the BA.2.75 subvariant last Thursday in a man in his 60s living in Incheon. The man had no recent travel record, raising the possibility that the strain is already prevalent in the local community.

Experts worry about a Covid-19 wave that may have two peaks, with the arrival of BA.2.75 even before BA.5 has gone away.

Initially, the government predicted the new pandemic wave's peak to bring 150,000 to 200,000 daily confirmed cases as early as mid- or late July, or as late as September to October.

Yet authorities updated their forecast on Tuesday, saying the number of daily Covid patients will be between 110,000 to 200,000 around mid-August, and the peak will arrive in mid- or late August with daily cases between 200,000 to 280,000. Theoretically, if the recent doubling of cases continues, the daily Covid-19 figure could reach 150,000 next week, but the government believes that is unlikely.

“The actual number of patients would be larger considering hidden infections such as those who are not being tested,” said Kim Woo-joo, a professor of infectious diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital.

As Korea crosses into Year Three of Covid-19, pandemic fatigue is high.

Social distancing rules were completely lifted in April, and the only remaining antivirus measures are a seven-day quarantine rule for infected patients and an indoor mask mandate. In addition, the government reduced support for people infected with Covid-19. Expenses for Covid-19 home treatment — such as doctor's fees and medicine costs — became the responsibility of the patient if the amount is small.

"The government's policy of shifting the burden of Covid hospital expenses to patients and reducing support for living expenses is leaving a vulnerable group on edge,” said civic group People's Solidarity for Participatory Democracy (PSPD) in remarks made Monday.

“The government vowed to carry out quarantine policies based on scientific data, while it has not presented any specific plans to recruit more medical personnel and earmark hospital beds amid a Covid-19 surge.”

Korea expanded fourth dose vaccine eligibility to more people, including people over 50 and all adults with underlying diseases. It also promised to offer oral antiviral drugs to more patients.

Yet the government reiterated its principle of not bringing back social distancing restrictions.

“Social distancing is a last resort unless a very critical situation occurs or a deadly variant is found,” said Park Hye-kyung, director of the disease prevention support team for the Central Disease Control Headquarter in Tuesday's press briefing.

“Distancing measures, which are a control-oriented and state-led virus policy, are believed to be unsustainable, and instead we will encourage preventive rules that can maintain public acceptance," she said.

BY SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]