Sixth Covid wave is peaking earlier than expected

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Sixth Covid wave is peaking earlier than expected

Published: 28 Jul. 2022, 17:08 Updated: 28 Jul. 2022, 17:10

Jung Jae-hun, a professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University, speaks at a press briefing on Covid-19 at the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) on Thursday. [YONHAP

New Covid-19 infections in Korea appear to be increasing at a slower rate than in previous weeks, medical experts said Thursday, with a peak to the sixth wave expected in one to two weeks.

“This week’s pace of new Covid-19 cases slowed down a lot,” said Jung Jae-hun, a professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University, during a press briefing by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) on Thursday.

"This shows that the peak of the virus wave can come in one to two weeks,” Jung added.

Korea reported 88,384 new Covid-19 cases on Thursday, down from 100,285 on Wednesday. Thursday’s figure was 1.2 times the count from the previous week’s 71,145 cases, and 2.3 times larger than 39,172 cases from two weeks ago.

“We can say that the peak may arrive earlier while the size of the wave may be smaller,” Jung said.

The government had forecast that infections would peak in the middle of August or later, with up to 300,000 new cases a day.

"The forecast made two to three weeks ago was close to the worst case scenario possible,” Jung said. “[Now it seems] it will be difficult to reach an average of 300,000 infections.”

Jung said one reason may be the high number of people who received four doses of the Covid-19 vaccine, which is “much higher than expected.”

As of Thursday, the rate of people 60 or older who had four shots was 41 percent, according to KDCA data. Among the total eligible recipients, it was 27.7 percent.

Though vaccination is considered more effective at reducing severe illness and fatalities than preventing infections, the current vaccination rate could be reducing the number of infections, according to Jung.

Another reason was that the transmissibility of the new BA.2.75 or Centaurus variant was not as great as feared.

Experts have worried that BA.2.75 would make the sixth wave longer and bigger in size after piggy-backing on the BA.5 variant.

“The spread of BA.2.75 does not appear to be as fast as expected,” Jung said, adding, "BA.2.75 will have a limited impact on the size of the current [sixth] wave."

In addition, many Koreans contracted the virus during the Omicron wave that peaked in March and may have immunity.

Still, Jung warned that the high numbers of new infections are likely to continue for the next couple of weeks and urged the government to reserve additional hospital beds for severely ill patients.

As of Wednesday midnight, 196 hospitalized Covid-19 patients were reported to be critical condition, which was the highest figure since May 28’s 196 patients. The occupancy rate of Covid I.C.U. beds was 23 percent as of 5 p.m. Wednesday, while that in intermediate care units was 43.6 percent.

BY SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]