Yoon, Biden not quite in step on nukes for South Korea

President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks at a joint briefing by the foreign and defense ministries at the Blue House in Jongno District, central Seoul on Wednesday morning. [YONHAP]

President Yoon Suk Yeol's comments about nuclear weapons as a potential option for Seoul have run into headwinds from Washington, which insists its goal is the total denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

The debate over how to bolster South Korea’s defenses has turned unusually public as the allies express subtle disagreement over Seoul’s options in the face of escalating military threats from Pyongyang.

At a press briefing on Thursday, White House National Security Council (NSC) Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby said that U.S. President Joe Biden remains dedicated to achieving the peninsula’s complete denuclearization.

“What we are going to seek, jointly together with them [South Korea], are improvements in extended deterrence capabilities,” Kirby said the press briefing.

Those comments were in response to President Yoon’s suggestion last Wednesday that South Korea could look into developing its own nuclear weapons or request the United States redeploy tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula.

Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, made similar comments the same day, saying the United States seeks denuclearization of the region and that South Korea “falls under that extended deterrence umbrella.” He added that extended deterrence “has worked very well to date.”

Kirby said the South Korean government made clear that it is not pursuing nuclear weapons, quickly adding that Seoul and Washington are discussing expanding extended deterrence.

But Yoon’s comments about nuclear armaments have raised concerns that South Korea is on the brink of a domestic paradigm shift on how to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat that could push it out of step with the U.S.

Domestic opinion surveys over the years have found that a majority of South Koreans support the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to the South or the country developing its own nuclear weapons.

In a February 2022 report, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs issued a finding that 71 percent of South Korean survey respondents supported the development of a domestic nuclear weapons program, suggesting that despite their apparent indifference to the North, the South Korean public is strongly dissatisfied with the status quo and lacks confidence in deterrence through the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

In a Chosun Ilbo interview published Jan. 2, Yoon initially said that South Korea is in talks with the United States “to operate U.S. nuclear forces under the concept of joint planning and joint exercises to respond to North Korea's nuclear weapons and missiles.”

Biden quickly denied such a plan was in the works when asked by a Reuters reporter at the White House the same day.

Some experts have pointed out that while it is not inconceivable that South Korea could legally exit the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), which bans the country from developing nuclear weapons, it would face myriad questions and additional problems from such a withdrawal.

“While Article 10 of the NPT allows a signatory state to give notice of its intent to withdraw in the face of an extraordinary threat or change of circumstances, South Korea would need to consider how to invoke that clause in a way that is both legal and doesn’t risk sanctions from its key trading partners and allies before it decides to withdraw from the treaty,” says Antoine Bondaz, director of the Korea Program at the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).

“Seoul would also have to figure out how to manage reactions from China and North Korea, and not to imperil the international non-proliferation regime,” he added.

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]